Double your $ in a decade Ferraris | FerrariChat

Double your $ in a decade Ferraris

Discussion in 'Ferrari Discussion (not model specific)' started by Zarathustra, Nov 13, 2009.

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  1. Zarathustra

    Zarathustra Formula Junior

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    #1 Zarathustra, Nov 13, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2009
    The market is down. What Ferraris have the potential to double in value in the next decade?
    Many models may increase in value, but which will increase the most?
    (Try to keep this thread on Ferraris, though a few Lambos won’t raise my ire.)

    Currently, it’s easier to double your money on penny stocks than on, say, Berkshire-Hathaway. Likewise, I feel the lower-end cars are probably more likely to double than Daytona spiders.

    Given government spending and low interest rates, everyone is worried about inflation when the economy recovers. The Dollar is down and the Euro will also inflate new and used Ferrari values. So your picks may be good hedges against inflation.

    (Approximate values from the current Ferrari Market Letter. Don’t argue with Mr. Roush.)

    My picks:
    365 GTC/4 $98K
    365 GT4 2+2 $25K
    Dino 308 GT4 $16K
    308 Fiberglass $31K
    308 GTB (4 valve) $25K
    330 GT 2+2 $71K
    Lambo Jarama & Espada $40K?

    What are your picks and why?
     
  2. Bullfighter

    Bullfighter Two Time F1 World Champ
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    The 308 fibreglass is a fair bet. Scarce car, reasonable to maintain. Not sure about the others.

    Most of them have been left behind for years because visually they don't stack up to their peers (at least in the market's view). I.e., 365 GTC/4 has long been a fraction of the Daytona for reasons of style, and I don't expect that to change.

    Likewise, the Espada and Jarama just look weird. Yes, they're cool, but not beautiful.

    I think nice low mileage 328 GTS's will do well. Double? Ummmmmm maybe. People will get tired of all the computerised-paddle shift-digital dash cars, and the 308/328 should be well positioned to scratch that itch.

    Boxers should do well. Scarce cars, still look good, and a few nice ones appear to have changed hands in the low $100Ks. Given the falling value of the dollar, $200K+ doesn't seem unreasonable in 2019.
     
  3. Speedmade

    Speedmade Formula Junior
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    Because I have one, and I'm optimistic.

     
  4. Ferrarista3

    Ferrarista3 F1 Rookie

    Oct 30, 2007
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    Double?

    None, I fear.
     
  5. GuyIncognito

    GuyIncognito Ten Time F1 World Champ
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    Jun 30, 2007
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    Interesting comment about the 328/return to the "analog" cars. I think the 355, as the most modern/capable of the cars before computerization really took over, could benefit in the same way.

    The big question for me is production numbers-is there simply too much of a good thing?
     
  6. docf

    docf Formula 3

    Sep 14, 2008
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    Buy Gold! If Omanabolony continues it's almost a sure bet and you will not need to wait a decade.
    Docf
     
  7. Simon^2

    Simon^2 F1 World Champ

    Oct 17, 2005
    12,313
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    I agree with Gold. will double in <3 years...

    As for Ferrari's...

    You better buy something that will comand overseas demand...

    Try...

    F40
    Daytona
    365 / 512 Boxers
    288 GTO

    I have a sweet spot for the 550 Barchetta... so maybe...
     
  8. Zarathustra

    Zarathustra Formula Junior

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    If gold doubles we're all in deep manure.
    Let's keep the discussion on Ferraris, please.
     
  9. speedy_sam

    speedy_sam F1 Veteran

    Jul 13, 2004
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    I think the Exoto and CMC Ferraris will double in the next decade. And no need to change the pesky belts
     
  10. Simon^2

    Simon^2 F1 World Champ

    Oct 17, 2005
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    Ok...

    I suspect you will be able to buy a ferrari for half the ounces of gold in 2-3 years that it would take today.

    :D

    ;)
     
  11. Ferrarista3

    Ferrarista3 F1 Rookie

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    #11 Ferrarista3, Nov 13, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2009
    I personally don't like the idea of a buying any car as an investment.

    Being so worried about resale value implies being careful about the mileage...and this is where those famous "garage queens" come from.

    As silly as it may sound, IMO, the best way to buy a car (if you really want to enjoy it to the fullest) is to pretend that the money you spend on any given car is money thrown away that you will never get back. Then, when and if you decide to sell the car, whatever you get back is a bonus. :)
     
  12. sammyb

    sammyb Formula 3

    Jun 23, 2006
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    You knew I wouldn't be able to keep out of this one!

    Gauging by historical trends and conventional wisdom, the cars that always see the greatest appreciation in percentage are just over 30 years old (usually from the mid-to-end of series production). This is because these are the cars at their low value and are hitting the nostalgia tide.

    I'll once again give my typical spiel on "production", rarity isn't always in a car's favor. What's more important than production is popularity (or desirability, in the case of higher end cars). For instance, the 308 GTS was produced in far greater numbers than the 308 GT4, but the GTB and GTS will be worth far more. Rarity is the most important when it is a small production high-performance option/package/style of a larger-produced and very popular model. Ferraris tend to usually have rarity equating to value, but only because the best cars (racers) were made in the lowest production. The 246 GT is a good example of how higher production can still mean high prices.

    That being said...it's pretty safe to say that in ten years there are a number of Ferraris that will be selling for double what they are right now. Ten years from now all 328s will be 30+ years old. Chances are that all 308s and 328s will be well into their rapid appreciation. I would expect that $100K sales for 3X8s will not be at all uncommon.

    308 GT4s will be selling in the $30K-$40K range, because they'll still be so much cheaper than $100K for a carb GTB/GTS. Before you start laughing, about 15 years ago, one could have picked up a 330 2+2 for under $40K, and now they are $100K cars...mostly because they are compared to the two-seat V12s.

    I would expect that both the Testarossa and F40 will be double-plus in a decade. Both are iconic high-po cars for the time, and that always helps. Similarly, expect Countach prices to go through the roof. Just like Miuras, they are so wild that collectors buy them just on image and engine sound alone. As those cars fly, expect the BBs to catch a second wind.

    I'd expect that Mondials will be the last to double, and that might be 15 years away from now.

    My advice is: if you like 308s and 328s, buy them before the economy significantly improves!
     
  13. Zarathustra

    Zarathustra Formula Junior

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    Ah, I like the attitude, but it doesn't answer the question.
    Some people don't have the luxury of your position and prefer to enjoy the car AND make a good decision with their money.
     
  14. docf

    docf Formula 3

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    Having made many good dicisions regarding past winner's eg original 427 Ac Cobra, , 246 GT Dino , and finally the 84 Ferrari 512 BBi which I imported and sold for 310,000 in 88 take the advise given to you by others that no car is an investment. You may have some winners as I did, but your in for some big loses. I regard my Modena as personal pleasure and only that!
    I guess if you don't think we are in Manure it doesn't make sense to go any further. Pick a name and go for it!
    Docf
     
  15. Zanny1

    Zanny1 Formula 3
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    My 2 cents

    1. Bought a 1975 308GT4 in 1987 sold it in 1988 $25K. They are still a $25K car
    2. Bought a good example 1977 308 GTB in 1992 sold it in 1995 for $30K. They are still a $30K car.
    3. Bought a 1964 330 GT 2+2 in 1994 for $30K. Poured a ton of money into it and sold in in 1998 for $35K. Look at them today..... I can't believe the series 1 cars are selling for the prices adverstised..... at least I wouldn't pay that for one.
    4. Bought my current ride, a 1972 GTC/4 in 2003 for $40K. After dropping $60K into it to get it right, I doubt it will ever be worth more than $120-$150K in any type of market.

    I agree the 308 GTB fiberglass models appear to readily appreciate, but seriously doubt any other 308 model will. The 328's seem to hold their value pretty well. They are reliable and relatively "inexpensive" to maintain.

    Bottom line is, if you drive it and service it, you'll rarely get your money back. That's the price of ownership.
     
  16. Simon^2

    Simon^2 F1 World Champ

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    to make money on a car you need to things...

    1. An appreciating market climate
    2. cost of the car must be high enough that the apprciation rate covers the ownership carrying costs.

    I bought my F40 in 2005 right befor the prices skyrocketted... I sold in early 2008 right before prices fell. I was lucky that my duration of ownership met both criteria 1 and 2...
     
  17. El Wayne

    El Wayne F1 World Champ
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    The problem with your picks is that, other than the C/4, most of those prices from FML won't buy you a decent example of that model right now. Sure, you might be able to sell an excellent GT4 for $32K ten years from now, but you can't buy an excellent GT4 for $16K today.

    My pick for appreciation is the carbureted 512 BB. 365 GT4 BB prices have already taken off and there has been a flood of injected BBis on the market recently. I think that there's probably a good deal on a 512 BB out there somewhere.

    The problem with speculating on the lower-end cars is that, even if they double in value, maintenance and repairs can quickly negate any upside. Like others here have already stated, I wouldn't buy one of these cars with the intention of flipping it for a profit in ten years. That said, it doesn't hurt to be smart when deciding which car to buy and enjoy, so that you're in good shape in case something happens and you have to sell.
     
  18. TheMayor

    TheMayor Ten Time F1 World Champ
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    None of them will make money after factoring in insurance, upkeep, maintenance, and inflation. Most will LOSE money.

    Buy them because you love them. Leave speculation to commodities and the market.
     
  19. Zarathustra

    Zarathustra Formula Junior

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    Simon ^2: Excellent point… models appreciated overseas are very important.
    $1 Mil 288s, $900K F-40s, $700K Daytonas in a decade? Maybe if Bernanke lets inflation go nuts.

    docf: I, too, have made hundreds of thousands over the years on cars, though I disagree that “no car” is an investment as I have rarely lost. Some people actually make quite a good living playing the car market. (Sheehan, Shaughnessey, Noon and many others.)
    I also did not start this thread for advice; it’s more a sounding board for different prophecies. (Actually, the part of my brain that feigns rationalism argues the Ferrari market will collapse in a few years.)
    Manure depth is relative for individuals and countries. Who extricates themselves remains to be seen.
    But I do like to muse on applying Buffet’s dictum to the Ferrari market: “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

    Zanny1: Sorry about the bad buying & selling luck. I know what you mean about 330 2+2 prices. I have the same feeling about most old, used cars that have skyrocketed in price. But the mistake is in continuing to see them as cars. They are no longer cars, they are art. That’s the only explanation for their inflated values. And if these cars are art, can’t art be an investment?

    El Wayne: Yes, some of the FML prices seem a bit low to me too. Looking at the FML list I was trying to imagine how feasible it was for each value to double in a decade. Good picks on Boxers and good points on the maintenance of low end cars.

    bdelp: “Leave speculation to commodities and the market”? Naa… buying Ferraris is much more fun than gold or live hog futures.
     
  20. dinogt4guy

    dinogt4guy F1 Rookie

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    #20 dinogt4guy, Nov 14, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2009
    Good examples of GT4's are selling for $32K+ now, I think they will be even more 10 yrs from now. You'll be lucky to find a poor example now for $16K.


    NADA
    November 14, 2009
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    PRICING


    Original MSRP: $23,875 Low Retail Average Retail Value High Retail
    Base Price $18,900 $21,600 $29,500
    TOTAL PRICE $18,900 $21,600 $29,500

    And there have been some nice ones sold in the mid 30's

    I think the GT/4's will supprise everyone in time.

    Cheers!
     
  21. Bas

    Bas Four Time F1 World Champ

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    I think the 550 Maranello is a good bet. Not the 575 (it looks to 'modern' with too many color coded stuff).

    Not the reason I'll be buying one though. I don't care whether its worth $1 after I buy one. It's probably the most gorgeous front engined V12 car money can buy since...well ever.
     
  22. AceMaster

    AceMaster Three Time F1 World Champ

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    very tough question to answer
     
  23. PV Dirk

    PV Dirk F1 Veteran

    Jul 26, 2009
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    My 87 Mondial has been an amazing investment. I get amazing dividends every time I listen to it warm up in the driveway, every time I get to run wide open on a twisting country road. I wouldn't want to sell it for double what I paid for it. If I had more money I'd buy a 400i to have an Enzo era V12, a 328 to look at and drive, a Mondi hardtop for more daily driving and a 355 spider just because I couldn't help myself.
     
  24. anunakki

    anunakki Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    Double in the next ten years ?

    None
     
  25. ZiFF

    ZiFF Formula Junior

    Mar 30, 2009
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    Double in the next 10 years?

    All.
     

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