Early 1990s crash of collector Porsche and Ferrari values...how did it happen?

Super_Dave,

You're 100% right here, I misread your post. Your math is correct if it was 18 not 3 cars. My apologies. This is completely my mistake.

Cheers

 

I do know he owned a 993 based turbo S at one time. I saw it being outfitted at the factory in the "special wishes" work room, or at least this is what my host told me. It was one of the first ones made, this was in circa 1997.

 

A Classic Downshift : Prices of Many Antique Cars Have Fallen Substantially Since Late '80s

December 03, 1992

A Classic Downshift : Prices of Many Antique Cars Have Fallen Substantially Since Late '80s - latimes

 

I've been to his collection at Santa Monica airport, the 3 cars don't move the needle compared to what's there. IDK what else he ownes. I also have a friend who opens for him sometimes and don't worry Jerry is making plenty of $$$. Again the value of these cars is a couple gigs for Jerry.

Best
Eric

 

Maybe I am cynical, but keeping up on 60+ cars must be a pain in the ass for someone. Granted, he has someone who maintains them but they must be started and I would assume driven even if lightly one a month. If I had hundreds of millions, it would be fun to hunt and buy and look and occasional drive them, then again I also think I would be bored or feel like "did it, done that" and move on. I am certain there was be a good dozen favorites or cars that truly speak. That said again, 60 seems like a pain in the ass.

I say this as a guy who even if again I had a billion dollars, would think and feel the same way. Less if more in life even for big boys.

 

I was at most of the auctions and BJ had very few cars that sold for less then what they were worth. when standing in the line as they wait to cross the block there was so much new and still curing paint so many very carefully worded descriptions designed in my opinion to mislead the buyer , one car I looked closely at had fresh paint and rust was already bleeding through some of the body joints.. and for the most part these were the low dollar cars looked great on TV but not correct .. the cars that were good for the most part went for plenty..
I watched every car at gooding and most went for good money those that did not sell were mostly due to overly strong estimates.. or the fact that a better similar car was also coming up..
this is just what i noticed i don't claim to be an expert ...just my opinion for what its worth

 

18 is a dent, I thought it was 3 as well

 

I tend to agree. After having up to 5 cars at one time, my car hobby started feeling less of a hobby as I define it. True that most of the big collectors have custodians watching/caring /driving the cars; but for me, this looses the point of the hobby a bit.

Having said this, as appreciating assets/investments, I would look at these cars differently which may justify custodians.

To each their own.

 

I agree with all of this and I'll add something else: if it gets to the point where the joy is investment based rather than driving based and you need a custodian to "protect your investments," etc. then the hobby then becomes something motivated by money more than it's motivated by cars. That's my opinion, anyway.

I had 9 cars at one point and it really was too much. I love every car that I own and I don't feel like any of them need to go to make my life easier or better. When I had 9, I couldn't say that.

I know guys who have huge warehouses and caretakers. They love cars but they love the values and deals even more. To each his own is correct, but sometimes you can see where it stops becoming a fun hobby and starts becoming another job.

 

Agreed, at 7 cars two motorcycles and some boats, its work. The good part of winter in the Ne is there is 6 mos of downtime to potter in the gararge and get the cars sorted for the spring.

But yes there is point at which you are hiring people, coordinating and essentialy running a cottage industry. I tend to leave one car at the workshop down the road, which is run by hyper meticulous repair artists. That way I can do light work at home, and one car is always at the shop for the heavy lifitng, when its done I just swap it out with the next one in line. Enough cars you always have one that needs work and few running great.

Ironicaly the BBI is currenty the car that had no needs besides fresh fluids, the others are all getting sorted this winter.

 

^You're killing the dream, man. ;-)

 

Seinfeld is a smart guy, regardless of his motivations here.

Catalysts have hit, China and tech in particular. Sentiment has shifted and more to come.

History always repeats.

 

I don't understand how having a caretaker/ staff/ assistance makes it less or more of a hobby. I think perhaps some are equating level of being hands on with the vehicles as level of love of the hobby. I'm sure there are examples of people who are really more investors than enthusiasts/ passionate about their cars/ but I don't think we should be so quick to judge.

In a way with someone (or a staff) to help you, it might be easier to have say 20 cars rather than 3-4 that you handle yourself. You just hop in whatever car you want and you know everything is ready to roll.

 

Absolutely but for some of us, all the hands on parts are part of the hobby. When you bring on a caretaker that also means that you're willing to give up control of your "stuff" and ultimately, have less control over part of the hobby.

There is no right or wrong answer but I have seen it from both sides and the guys I know who have the full on warehouses and caretakers are definitely more involved in the hobby from an investment/collection than from a driving perspective. The driving guys just have normal mechanics that they take their cars to. While it would be great to have a full time mechanic for just your cars and available at your beck and call, the idea of having a caretaker or curator seems to something out of the driving and more to the collecting.

 

Agreed, once the next correction arrives (markets do have their cycles) Seinfeld will give up his lifelong passion for Porsche, close down his hanger, sell his posters, and end his involvement in cars. Maybe he'll start collecting Pokemon cards.

 

you don't have any dollars at risk right? you shld sleep soundly

what's an enthusiast to do? I wld argue selling cars because you think the market is overdone throws one into the speculator category.

 

I just hope that there is a peak of a bubble at the time when I decide to quite driving cars . Still some time to go, fortunately ... .

 

I wouldn't be that harsh to someone cashing out. Unless they dip in / out of the market purely for financial reasons. Anyone who just bought in because they wanted a quick flip, now THEY are by definition speculators.

There is something to be said for someone who sells some cars today with the intention of buying back in at more normal prices or to start a business etc, and sees the prices as high now.

Seinfeld doesn't need the cash but even the extremely wealthy don't like to squander opportunities. He may have myriad reasons to sell off some cars but the high prices today may make it more opportune to do so now, and with the likely opportunity to buy those cars (or another mix) again in a couple years at half the price.

If someone was collecting baseball cards during the peak of that bubble, and thought it was a good time to sell, they would have been able to buy back (most) cards a few years later for 1/3rd or less of the price. Doesn't mean they lost the passion or were speculators. Conversely, if someone was getting into baseball cards solely to participate in the big rise in value (this happened) I would call them speculators, regardless of whether they sold or got burned.

It is the intention that makes someone a speculator, not the actions isolated from intent.

I would put Seinfeld clearly in a non-speculator bucket, regardless of why he is selling today. Being smart with money and making decisions partly informed by value, is simply not the same as being a speculator.

To more directly answer your question, an enthusiast may or may not sell today, depending on a bunch of factors. I personally would not necessarily sell a car, even if it has appreciated tremendously if A) I don't care about the value change impact / don't need cash B) sentimental value.

If A and/or B conditions exist, then I would likely not sell a car. If either did not hold true, I would start thinking about it.

Seinfeld clearly doesn't "need" the cash, but he may still care about the value change. Similarly, he likely doesn't have strong sentimental feelings on the cars he is choosing to sell. I am sure he likes them very much but people buy and sell cars that they have enjoyed all the time for various reasons.

 

so you ridicule the speculator who is willing to buy from the enthusiast who is willing to sell

that doesn't seem fair

 

Who am I ridiculing?

It is a free market. People can do whatever they want. People speculate (really just gamble) around anything. Causes massive price distortions, sure. It may also cause (in some areas) massive social upheaval, sure.

But I support freedom for people to do as they wish (within the confines of the law). I also support freedom to discuss these things. Ideally in a civil manner.

 

I don't quite understand the objections by some on here on discussing the downside aspect of this massive price appreciation that we have all witnessed.

There are countless posts on how prices are going "up up up!" You can find them across many threads, with lots of backslapping and virtual high fives.

If someone looks back on realty sites in 2006 and 2007 you will see the same. 90% of posters talking about how to flip properties, acquiring multiple condos in Miami, and money being made, and then a smaller group saying that things don't seem quite right. There are numerous real estate bubbles today too and you will see the same behavior and interactions.

Human nature, of course, and it is the reason these bubbles persist and become as large as they do, so mostly just another observation.

 

Given some of the Porsches that JS has in his collection, I can see why he would sell these cars to thin the stable except for the 718 RSK. I wonder if he has another RSK in his collection.

 

What can be said about your friend? Declares the end is nigh (5 years ago), oppertunistically buys a couple of cars, flips them (while doing so temporarily reverses their negative prognostications), once in the clear, reverses again and continues the Chicken Little dance?

Is this an enthusiast, speculator, or ******bag?

 

Answer this question and you will have your answer.

What cars did the recent run up cause you to be 'priced out'? (or as our friend BW says, made you 'uncomfortable' to purchase?)
or put another way, how did the run up (real or false) cause you harm?

I too saw a lot of anti-real estate forums during 06'-07' (patrick.net is one of them) - how do I know? I had a counter position. I was dismayed by constantly being out bid on what I considered unrealistic prices. Are you being outbid at Sotheby's? Or perhaps you think high Ferrari prices will take down Goldman Sachs?

What is your counter position vis-à-vis classic Ferrari?

If you have none, there is Pokemon forums where the discussion is also if those cards are in a bubble too..why not discuss that?

 

I think what you mean to say, is you support the freedom for people as it relates positively on your posts. Negative or counter opinions are to be reported to the moderators to be 'purged' for not towing your line of thinking.

Now friends, watch as Super_Dave remains silent and does not respond to these admittedly strong, but fair challenges...