F12 VS Where will future values go?

The short answer is only God knows. It looks like they will produce 799 not 650, so the car will be less rare than the 599GTO or the 458 Speciale Aperta. Having said that, given the growth in the number of potential customers for such cars, 799 is still not a lot

The price trajectory all depends on whether the current supercar bubble continues or bursts. If it continues, I think you will see F12VS selling for 650-700k USD very soon. If the bubble bursts (and I believe it will), I expect these cars to trade around list price in 2-3 years and slowly rise later on. I dont think one would ever lose the value of a small house on it.

I also think that the car looks terrific and will most likely drive like a dream, so I'm certain that it will have a strong following for years to come. I would buy it even if someone told me I'd lose 50% in 2 years!!!

 

1. Where will future prices go? Who knows. For 99% of buyers, nice if it goes north but definitely not an imperative. Not because they don't care about money but because they are certified, passionate petrolhead loons who are fortunate to experience awesome machines.

2. Most likely open above MSRP? See above.

3. Lose value of small house if driven? See above.

4. Trading up to hedge? See above.

 

It can only go one way almost regardless of market conditions. The last and ultimate evolution of the n/a front engine V12, the bookend to where it all began with 90%+ of the performance of the LF and looking this good? There is no question it will 'open' at a substantial premium, I understand the demand is huge.

 

In the UK, the 599 GTO flat-lined from launch until about 8 months ago. Now a RHD version is retailing more than 100% of the original price. Perhaps that's a bubble (or perhaps the penny finally dropped the 599 GTO is epic) or a bit of both, but flat-lined it did for 3+ years.

 

After 5,000 miles, double the cost and sell it at $900K. All you need is one idiot. Trust me, there are many around.
Btw, things you need to watch out : If Ferrari moves away from turbo to NA hybrid, then quickly sell it even at cost.

 

Sorry, I'm being slow. What are you saying?

 

He means if in the future Ferrari is not turbocharging the V12s and instead use hybrid technology. Using hybrid means preserving the NA V12 sound and thus those hybrids will sound no different than the current V12s.

 

Next V12 wont be hybrid but it wouldn't surprise me if the model after is. I suspect turbo will be a stop gap for one model-hopefully.

I know I am on the list and biased and don't really care what happens to values, but given what it is, represents and how it apparently performs, there is only one direction of travel for values.

 

Limited production NA V12. Look at the GTO, superamerica, and barchetta for your answer. Short term it's anybody's guess. Long term results will see a nice rise in value. But back to the short term prediction. Most 2 seat ferraris are in strong demand when they first are introduced. The only recent exception I can imagine is the scud, but they made over 1000 of those and they came out when the market crashed big time. Even the 16M suffered despite only 399 made (until recently). Anyway, I can't imagine the value of these cars being anything less than MSRP unless you get in an accident, rack up huge miles, or buy some obscene color combination. Even if a NA hybrid comes out after the F12 VS, this car will still be revered. The F12 is at least as fast as the GTO and those values are just fine


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Whilst not wishing to cast a shadow over this anticpated joy my recollection is that for several years for both models the 550 Barchetta & 575 SA were a hard & cheap (under 50 % list) sell

 

Try 3 seconds a lap faster at Fiorano.

 

I agree with you all saying look at the prior special limited V12 models. On the negative side they will make a few more than the 599 GTO. On the positive side there are even more buyers for the car today. Also this very well could be the last NA V12 extreme car from our friends in Maranello. I don't know, but I have a good idea and good information that the model after the F12 will be turbo charged. Seems to me the KERS or hybrid + V12 is wishful thinking. Its simple physics. Batteries are heavy and the F12 is not light. Adding those hybrid systems would mean you need corresponding weight offset somewhere else. They would need to build the entire car out of something very light like CF. That is the provenance for the Supercar. I doubt they will do it. They also have a huge investment into aluminum construction. Do you think they want to then invest into production cars made entirely out of CF and throw that aluminum investment and expertise out? Especially as a newly minted public company? They'd have to begin that work now so the expenses would begin now.... I hate to say it but all signs point to turbo.

On the other hand we could have cars that are less interesting. I think Ferrari is trying to roll with the times as best as possible.

 

Agreed this could happen. But I think market dynamics are different now. Of course, that could change and we could find ourselves with new dynamics. I just think if we wait for end of production of the F12 VS and come back 5 years or so later, we will see a very similar track to the 599 GTO.

 

This is an interesting point. Are you suggesting that they will do a turbo version of the V-12 or use a smaller motor? I just can't see them straying away from the V-12.

 

As I have come to understand, and I think there is some educated guessing going on here, so lets just call it semi-informed opinion, they will do the F12 VS for whatever number of units they say and also continue the F12berlinetta until the end of the run- maybe that is 2019 or so. There will be a new model V12 car. That model will be turbo. Pure conjecture is the size and power of the motor. My guess is they will do similar to that which they did on the V8s: smaller and yet a little more power. In the case of the F12, I think 730HP is already an incredible power number. My guess is they bump it a little bit its the torque number grows considerably. Add in improvements in chassis dynamics and tires and I bet you get a car that puts the power to the road even more effectively.

 

I agree with what you are saying. At some point the progression must slow down/stop on these cars in terms of HP. If/when that does happen I'm sure that they will put even more focus on aerodynamics, chassis dynamics, and getting the power to the road more effectively. (not that there isn't a huge emphasis on these aspects right now with the current range)

 

The future is not so dark, but I prefer the NA motor for all the usual reasons.

 

See GTO for your best guess.

 

Point very well made, and reflects my earlier observation about the 599 GTO.

HAGI is showing prices cooling slightly, 2013 growth rates were never sustainable. Like property, not all cars are the same, some much more desirable and less price elastic.

Sadly dealers are pulling in people with cheap loans on the basis lots of cars which aren't that special have risen. And that's a shame because people have very short memories and some prices are at nose bleed levels (the Dino for example?)

Frankly I'm not buying the VS to flip (have never flipped) so I don't care if it flat-lines or even drops gently. Same was for the 599 GTO. I love mine, had from new as RHD and I didn't care it flat-lined for 3+ years. In fact it fell 10% below what I paid for it early on. Not selling that either now its price is 100% over what I paid. The price is plain stupid.

 

Major props for not being a flipper!

 

Too bad we weren't smart enough to grab one in 2010 when they were available for around 200k USD. I also could have picked up an F40 for 400k. Point taken though.


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I look at some listings of GTO, Enzo, F50, 360CS, Barchetta, etc with hyper price; Not a single piece is sold at the moment. As an investor myself, I come to learn that there is never any good stuff or bad stuff. There is only good buy or bad buy. Even gold, the most precious metal used as investment for thousands of years (good stuff), if you bought it when it's too expensive (bad buy), you would end-up losing money. But even the Russian Ruble (not a good stuff compared to USD), if you bought it when Ukraine crisis was peak, you would make money today (good buy).
But there is always a chance to list it with hyper price. Like I said before, all you need is one idiot, only one. LOL. And there are many around nowadays.

 

I guess everyone has completely forgotten life before the current run in prices.

So, yes, your F12 VS will be worth millions, as will 6 speed 599s. Enjoy.

 

One sold for 650! Although I'm sure that was your point


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