F40. F50 Enzo and financial turbulence

i would think the HIGH END cars like the f50 etc... wouldnt feel the price drop as much as the cheaper common models, mainly because the million dollar cars are owned by people with cash to burn.

 

We need an expert like Joe sackey to give an informed view. Seems to me that lots of cars are staying for sale for a long time.

 

when Ferrari goes, all goes…times change, the mentalitees too.
Oil price in rise, lowers money rates, worldwide economy in bankrupt of with the silly things of certain leaders.

...limited edition who are not so limited makes me fun with some price estimations.

 

Enzo prices seem up in the last 12 months. Or at the least, cars with more mileage (3-4k... gasp!) seem to be asking what the really low-mile ones were asking a year ago.

As has been well documented on these boards, the F40 market seems to have peeked and is softly settling. Good cars still seem to bring good money, albeit a little less than even 6 months ago.


F50s seem to be a guessing game with some people actually in the game 50% higher than others... quite the margin...

 

In a word: Yes.

Thinking about this in a dispassionate manner, the tough financial market is not the end of the world. Things will get better, and enthusiasts will always desire these cars.

However, the market has changed pretty quickly in the last year, and many, dealers included, are well behind the curve! Acceptance of the status quo has been difficult for most, but thats what happens every time the market adjusts.

Of course, most of us are aware that this is one of the most polarized markets ever seen, with some collectors paying strong money for PERFECT cars, whilst other not-so-perfect/high-mileage/storied cars of the same variant remaining almost sale-proof.

Since the question is restricted to the 4 Ferrari Supercars, my thoughts are that this is a classic "buyers market" with lots of cars available and remaining unsold at their asking prices. If you've got cash, you're king. I am aware on a first-hand basis that cars are being discounted way below ask prices in order to do a deal. For example: an advertised F40 was very recently discounted almost 20% off the lofty ask price to make a sale. Even ultra-rare GTOs are sitting unsold at their ask prices and some are now being offered at lower numbers. As for F50s, great cars though they are, the market is a very narrow one and sellers of them have told me personally that some offers have been in the 30% below ask range. Enzos remain an enigma and as someone who owns Ferrari Supercars myself I wouldn't pay anything close to some of the current ask numbers which I believe are well behind the economic curve.

I think the bottom line is, ask prices will be reduced, cars will sell, and life will go on. The economy will get better and values will increase and the cycle will repeat itself all over again....

 

The last Ferrari bubble in the late 80's was led by the 288's and BB512's. This one is being led by 250 Lusso's and 275 4 cams. Theres always a car sale that everyone points to as the bubble popper, this time it's the 275 4 cam that went for over 2 mil at Pebble. Also some Lusso's were approaching 1 Mil !!! Talk about insane...

 

Insanity is relative to your point of view. To a billionaire who really likes a beautifully restored Lusso and is present at the Ferrari factory auction, $1 million is really of no consequence.
I've been around these cars for over 25 years and I've owned many lovely old cars. The last "bubble" in the late 80's was driven by profit speculators playing a game of musical cars. When the music finally stopped there were hundreds of non car people, indebted to the eyeballs, holding onto cars that they had priced well beyond what any collector was willing to pay to own.

The difference in today's market, and I'm a seller right now, is that the buyers are real collectors intending to own these cars for the long term. I'm referring to to real collectibles - cars over 40 years old, limited production, show and competition history, celebrity ownership etc that give these cars their value in the eyes of the buyers.
275 GTB's, Lussos, Cal Spyders, 250 SWB's TDF's and other significant vintage models will all retain their value quite solidly in the coming months and years despite anything the broader economy might experience. The universe of buyers for these cars are not dependent or influenced by the downfall of poorly managed investment banks.

 

Indeed, it's purely my opinion that the prices have reached insane levels. Also, the car that Billionaire bought could possibly be worth half that in a few years time. I know a few Billionaires as well as a few Millionaires and they tend to be very frugal, the ones I know are sitting tight right now.

Let's not pretend that there weren't many many collectors who got caught up in that bubble, and history does tend to repeat itself. Whats interesting about the current market is the similar conditions. The smart money was out of the stock market during that 80's bubble, the smart money was out of the current market a year ago. Rich men love to speculate, when you have a lot of cash that's waiting for the market they get bored and start spending it, on Ferrari's. The early 90's recession followed the late 80's Ferrari market bubble, I don't have a good working crystal ball but it's a fair bet that the current economic conditions could create the same conditions, not good for the prices of Ferrari's.

Of course, as a seller this is the right attitude, and you're correct that some cars will always hold value, very few though. Most Ferrari's fluctuate up and down with the currents of the global economy. As Joe Sackey (whom I don't know) posted in this thread, cars are not selling right now, and I have heard from another well known broker who is doing nothing but complaining about the car market. Maybe you're doing better, if so then good on you sir.

They may not be "dependent" but I disagree that they wouldn't be influenced. You don't get rich by ignoring current trends in any market. I'd be willing to bet that the buyer of that 275 GTB-4 that went for nearly 2 mil regretted it the next day after the champagne they fed him at the auction wore off. But then again as I said, my crystal ball is broken...

Cheers

 

Great post. + 1 on everything.

My crystal ball went in for refurbishment years ago and the guy has been saying "two weeks" ever since but I haven't seen it yet...

 

Blasphemous. I guess I could liquidate my life and live in the GTO...

 

In my life (sounds like a lyric) I've seen 250 GTO's sit at an asking price of $4,500 which included a trailer, sell for 17.5 million, fall back to 3.5 million and go back to 20 million. As Santayana said: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

There is a cold wind coming and the prices of everything will be coming down. I would not bet my Kidneys that 275 GTB's won't sell for 200K before this is over.

 

Dress warm...

 

I just LOVE how everyone is an expert on the future. You guys need to stop working and just play the Lottery. LOL Nobody knows what will happen next, and that's the cold hard fact.

 

That is a cold wind!

 

True.

But when "what will happen next" has already begun, its a bit naive to live in denial... personally I don't think a correction will ultimately be all that bad, but you'd better believe a correction for many models (not all) has already happened as evidenced this year. Those unaware, or who do not accept this, are way behind the curve. This is all purely hands-on observation, no expertise necessary.

The real question is, to what extent will it continue.







.

 

I think that there is huge difference between common F40's and F50's and really rare old vintage cars.
The reality is that the "market" for the very rare stuff is essentially the one buyer and one seller coming to agreement and what they agreed on will have no bearing on the next sale of that type, which may not occur for several years. When you are discussing cars of which there were less than 10 made or cars where every single one of a model type was literally built to order, down to little things like the hood scoop cover and the shape of the rear lights and unique from every other one of that model designation, there is no market.
So with all due respect to the experts and brokers who undeniably have a handle on the production car market (including the modern Ferrari supercars) their opinion is essentially worthless with regard to the very rare cars which is what my original post in this thread referred to.

 

I have read your posts here for many years and have much respect for you, and completely understand what you are saying. However, having said that, how do you explain the price fluctuations of the 250GTO over the years as Jim has pointed out? It would seem to me that just as a rising tide lifts all ships, so would a falling tide lower them.

I think the difference may be, as you've mentioned, that people with the means to buy the rare vintage cars have the money to weather the storm, and can hold out until the economy recovers to sell them, if they decide to. And since there are so few of them, they may go years in between sales. Sure, there may be only one buyer and one seller that come to an agreement, but the process of coming to that agreement could very well be influenced by the sale of other similar vehicles.

I haven't been around long enough to watch these types of cycles in the past, so it's definitely interesting. And as DM1 said - the fact is that prices will either go up, down, or stay the same.

 

A 250 GTO reportedly sold very recently for over $30 million. The one before that sold in the twenties a few years ago. It proves the case I am talking about - there is no market for these rare cars. There is just the transaction that happened. If you think that the next 250GTO to sell will be priced lower because of the current global economic malaise you are off base. Those cars come to market very rarely and the universe of buyers is extremely small - way to small to be impacted in any way by broad economic conditions.

I respect Jim's views, but he is the role model for collectors who buy and hold and will get the car they want without considering the "market". I'm pretty sure Jim has never sold a car. Maybe he'll confirm that for us.
I stand by my assertion that very rare cars are unaffected by other economic indicators. The people who play in that market are simply beyond those kinds of considerations. This is not simply an assertion. I have been around these cars and buyers for a very long time and I never saw anyone in that rarified air fail to pull the trigger on a car they really wanted because they thought the economy was tough, especially when the opportunity to acquire a really rare car doesn't come around every day, or every year for that matter.

 

It is a incontrovertible fact that the asset bubble that drove the prices of these rare cars up has burst. To argue that the force which drove once removed will not let them drift down ignores history and reality. They have gone up and down, as Napolis says.

They are like parachutes in an updraft, which has now become a downdraft. Even the Russian oligarchs and others are now hurting. These cars will come on the market, and thinly traded they will trade down. The last thing you bought is the first thing you sell.

As the man once said, "Send lawyers, guns and money. The sh*t has hit the fan."

 

I haven't sold a Vintage car since 1976. I bought a 275 GTB in 71 for 6.5K drove it 65K miles and sold it for 14K. I've never considered any car an investment. Keep in mind that while that GTO was offered at 4.5K Bill started Microsoft with about 50K.

Those that bought something they Love that they could afford will be fine. That said I believe that the price of every thing is going to come down and stay down for a while. Never forget that Van Gogh's have been used to wrap fish and the chassis of one of Ferrari's Greatest Sports Racing Car was thrown in the trash bin.

 

That they did eventually return in value from the first "bubble" may say something re: not being a collectible "fluke".

 

Not when adjusted for inflation...

 

19 F 40's
13 F 50's
21 275 GTB's
18 Enzo's

Listed 4 sale on Barchetta