f8 bubble / pricing

It has more to do with maximizing performance vs. control. A human can not manually shift as fast as a computer. You get paddles to stay engaged but these days the cars do really well in auto mode.

 

i didn’t say that you CANNOT have a manual with that kind of power. I said that it isn’t easy to control nor is it really all that fun.

 

I think you are mixing up what I said. I did not say the transition from ICE->EV is like the shift from stick to paddles, rather I said the transition from purely ICE to hybrid power in Ferraris might be like that. (Many jumped up and down and said no stick in a Ferrari would mean they would never buy a new Ferrari and thus, Ferrari sales would dwindle, how could they lose touch with their core experience... well.....)

And the subsequent posts about how its so dangerous to have all these cables near you only go on to make part of my point- there is a substantial amount of distrust of these things out there. Will it fade away or gain strength or stay the same? Time will tell us.

All I can tell you is I thought my day drive of the SF90 was really impressive.

But to come back to the F8- I don't see values going lower in the near term- unless there is a major market catalyst.

 

I was told today by someone that would know exact figures….F8 spiders are 80k over all day, real world selling prices. Not asking prices. That’s at least in the CA market, for dealer to private party sales. Obviously other parts of the country can be different. And of course there is some wiggle room there up or down depending on spec and mileage and all the usual factors.

So take that as one more data point. Looking at online asking prices, I would have guessed more.

 

Fair enough. However, I said ICE to electrification (not ICE to EV) to cover the entire range of cars “enhanced” by electric modes. For many of us, electrification et al is an existential crisis.

 

I thought you were suggesting that Porsche deliberately capped manuals at 500hp with the GT3.

Agree that high horsepower manuals (or with any transmission for that matter) are more difficult to control, but isn’t that part of the fun? Traction control and other nannies usually intervene before things get too sideways.

 

At some point, every enthusiast/collector slows or stops adding new cars to their garage. The shift to hybrid and EV will be the catalyst for many. I personally don’t have anything against hybrids but I am concerned with spending a lot of money on technology that is evolving rapidly and will be obsoleted quickly. I am not seeking more speed nor do I have the need to own the latest tech (I still use an iPhone 8). Hybrids do not (yet) bring enough extra to the table for me when there are decades worth of amazing ICE cars to pursue, study and own.

I suspect that when the time comes that I’m ready to actually buy a hybrid sports car I’ll look inside my garage and think “nah, I’m good”.

 

My thoughts exactly, and I could not have said it any better.

 

And this is exactly what people said with the move from stick to paddles.

It adds extra weight and complexity.

It takes away from the experience.

Now, you could say the paddles were a performance enhancing technology, whereas the electric is being forced upon us by regulation and society; this is true- but don’t kid yourself- part of the paddles reason for adoption is people who dont know how to drive stick shift can now drive a Ferrari. I have seen far too many Ferrari drivers only drive their cars in auto mode- even on the track! For me this is almost a crime, but to each their own.


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I hope you didn’t think I was downplaying your concerns. I understand its a huge issue for many people, which is why I said I don’t see F8 values going lower in the short run, which is what I’d define as about 18-24 months.

Longer term, I think the market will eventually move on. Those who are really bothered by this will have enough choice between so many amazing pre-owned cars; and those who are not really bothered will have newer things.

(PS I remember when people said all the environmental regulations of the early 1970s and then putting fuel injection into Ferraris was going to kill them. )


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Well said!! As I pointed out earlier the same thing was said when they moved fro N/A to turbo. How about when Porsche went front air cooled to water cooled. Each time new technology comes out and is forced on the market people have argued that the brand is dead, they are never changing or buying the car model and the old cars will just go up in value. History has shown that the new technology is eventually an improvement and people adapt and the market adjusts. For the record I am not a fan of hybrids, right now, but In a few years when they are lighter and outperform ice cars I will adapt and will want the latest and greatest.

 

I agree with the spirit of what you are communicating. The core difference now is that today’s cars have already surpassed what the average driver can safely handle on a public road. The various technology enhancements over the years led to meaningful, and welcome, performance gains. I am at the point now, where I do not need, or really want, anything faster than my 765LT. What’s more, the car I enjoy the most is my Ford GT which has pedestrian performance numbers relative to modern cars (the GT needs 11 seconds to go 0 to 124mph and the 765LT only needs 6.7 seconds).

 

If you could time warp 20 years back with your 765, and asked someone like Chris Harris his opinion, he’d say what you are saying.

I remember when the 400hp cars were coming on the scene and that was the common concern- too fast to enjoy- too fast for our roads- too fast for most to control.

Tire technology and electric systems kept improving- and they will keep improving as long as the market is there.


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I agree with that. Back when the 458 came out and I had one I thought that was too much car for the average person to handle. Each car I have owned since then has blown me away in performance and technology. My 765lt is mind blowing and I’m sure i will say the same thing with the next generation of cars. The improvements in technology do make the average person better on the track. I remember learning heel to toe to get better track times and now that seems so ancient. You may not need or want anything faster right now but in a few years who knows. I know I’ve said that about a lot of cars I’ve had.

 

The market will exist because new car buyers will have no other choice but to accept electrification. Not everyone has an attachment to or desire to own older cars that are out of warranty and don’t have Apple Carplay. I do believe hybrids and EVs will strongly appeal to the next generation of buyers.

The challenge for sportscar makers in the short term will be convincing existing customers to buy into hybrids when they know the risk of technical glitches and accelerated obsolescence is high, desirable pure ICE options still exist in the market and while they’re competing with their own recent but discontinued models in the used car market.

Things will change once more younger buyers have the means to afford exotics and pure ICE are no longer offered by anyone. Consumer confidence in the technology will also improve when these cars enter their first major upgrade cycle. I think this will happen in the next 3-5 years at which point many existing customers will have already jumped off the new sportscar wagon.

 

My data agrees with this, it's about 80k over. What I've found is that this is also climbing as more and more people experience FOMO.

imo, the only way pricing pulls back on the F8 is if the 296 isn't the successor -- and all data seems to indicate that it indeed is.

 

You seriously need to get some simple mods on your FGT....

And as far as "controlling" a high power MT car, using the clutch effectively alleviates that problem for those with driving skills.

 

i think there is a real difference. This is not “better faster”; it’s being forced on manufacturers. Does anyone really think the manufacturers are salivating over this “new technology”? Paddles, turbos, anti lock brakes, DCT, they all came from racing and/or making cars faster, better handling, more reliable. This comes from tree huggers.

 

You know, growing up in the 50's and 60's I can't imagine not driving a car without an ICE. However, today it seems many (not all) kids don't care that much for cars, or even driving period. So it won't be such a catastrophe for them.

I'm glad that when that "time far, far away" comes I'll be long gone. If they're not going to be drivable, they can bury me in my 612 and my wife in the FF. We'll both be happy!

 

Getting back to the core topic - F8 pricing is NOT in a unique bubble. There are lots of assets with supply demand imbalances. Over the next three to five years i think there are a few key variables. The EV/Hybrid market is evolving very fast. Ferrari's 296 and the overall production increase will make an impact.

The one thing that seems to always be confirmed on bubbles and pricing is supply and demand. No matter if the car is awesome if they make too many pricing will be bad...that simple.

The F8 does seem to have a shorter cycle and if there will not be another "speciale" f8 that would add to the pricing dynamic.

Best guess using rough math if f8 spider is $400k car (add-ons plus tax) with $80k market up. in 3-5 years with 5-9k miles the car should go from $480 to $300-350k. that is my guess.

The bubble 80k will be gone in year 2 and then depreciation will follow all the other ferraris.

 

Guy spends so much money on super cars he can’t even afford a new Iphone…..

 

There could be hope still...call your local dealer, or, if you have no local dealer, call around, you might find a dealer with an available allocation due to a customer backing out/cancelling...at least get your name on their callback list ....

and, if you are in the USA, call around to all the dealers and ask them if they have an F8 that the customer backed out and did not purchase, USA dealers are required to sell a new Ferrari to its first owner at list price, no markup...and Ferrari dealers are forbidden from advertising such "walk away" cars, but they will directly let you know if there is one available...

so, if you do a little work you might be able to get one sooner than you think and at list price...

 

Exactly correct.