Ferrari F40 market analysis | Page 13 | FerrariChat

Ferrari F40 market analysis

Discussion in '288GTO/F40/F50/Enzo/LaFerrari/F80' started by dariedell, Feb 26, 2023.

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  1. msn

    msn Formula Junior

    Jan 22, 2011
    511
    I agree, for high mileage cars or with questions this is the case., they are a hard sell
     
  2. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

    May 23, 2006
    57,525
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    I think the market has leveled off for all cars, not just cars with higher mileage, a year ago 84116 with just 600 miles would have brought $3.5m plus instead of $3m IMO, and there are currently low-mileage F40s and F50s that are taking a long time to sell (ie 6 months or more), so the market's 2022 trajectory has clearly slowed as supported by the sales data, that said, overall the market is still quite strong and great cars command good interest of course.
     
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  3. msn

    msn Formula Junior

    Jan 22, 2011
    511
    I agree, the point was how important mileage is and this has not changed., rightly or wrongly., a half price F40 because it has done 1800 miles per year vs 50 miles per year
     
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  4. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    Mar 25, 2002
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    ...and real drivers benefit again :)
     
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  5. christiann

    christiann Karting

    Nov 29, 2006
    207
    Anyone have general history of the car regarding the low mileage 1990 euro car that sold for 3? Thanks
     
  6. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

    May 23, 2006
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    Not much history for a car driven an average of just 18 milers per year over the last 33 years, that said it's one of those lucky cars that wasn't messed with but was correctly looked after, and upon our inspection was determined to be very original throughput. It's now been serviced and Classiche Certified by Ferrari of Newport Beach and will stay in a West Coast collection.
     
  7. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

    May 23, 2006
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    As posted previously by msn barkaways.com £1,650,000 is asked for this F40 with 43k miles and yet 89047 looks better than some examples with a fraction of the mileage.
     
  8. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    Mar 25, 2002
    37,976
    houston/geneva
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    Ross
  9. dariedell

    dariedell Formula Junior

    Jul 12, 2021
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    Andrew Riedell
    Now we are at 13 of the last 14 qualifying F40's having fallen short of the estimate average (1 of 14 exactly matching it). This one fell short of even the low estimate just like the RM Villa Erba car last month. Unlike that one, this example sold with a reserve so it obviously did at least beat that.
     
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  10. Birel

    Birel Formula 3

    Sep 12, 2005
    1,953
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    Andrew Turner
  11. PAUL500

    PAUL500 F1 Rookie

    Jun 23, 2013
    3,136
    I see it is one of the rare non abs examples! :rolleyes:

    As much as I really love these cars, I have seen better build quality on soviet era tractors....... and before the usual "they were race cars" defence, no they were not, they were very expensive road cars never meant to actually compete in anything.

    So the tide has finally reached the high water mark and is slowly receding? or are all the dross examples trying to be shifted at premium prices just before it does, which itself could cause that to actually happen?



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  12. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    look at the build quality of virtually any vintage and unrestored ferrari, and you will see similar issues.
    if you dont like it, no worries, plenty of others do... :)

    markets ebb and flow, and the f40 mkt will likely follow similar patterns as all others - it rose quite a bit, reached a new high, will retreat from that high to about 50% of the gain from the previous high, and will then resurge at some point to eclipse that last high - basic fibonacci.
     
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  13. ScrappyB

    ScrappyB Formula 3

    Oct 3, 2017
    1,648
    I still struggle with F40 values on a relative basis. 1,300 cars is quite a lot when one compares to other collectible icons.

    I know, a Ferrari is a Ferrari, but still….
     
  14. rmolke85

    rmolke85 Formula Junior

    Mar 11, 2013
    755
    #314 rmolke85, Jun 19, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2023
    It’s arguably Ferraris best and most important road going car. The cars will need to be restored like any other vintage car. The F40 is a first go at composite materials for a “Road Car”

    How could that be perfect first try? The charm is exactly that they ARE NOT PERFECT AND CLEARLY EXHIBIT HAND MADE IMPERFECT FEATURES LIKE OLD FERRARI PROTOTYPES. It was experimental by definition the end of the day.

    Enzo’s last car, the only one with actual sports car racing history out of the supercar series, and has a few variants. Most importantly, they are nearly perfectly proportioned, tiny cars that are relatively simple.

    Nearly 800 of the 275 GTBs? 2100 Countach’s? 1300 CGT? Price fluctuations aside, the F40 is pretty special and quite unique in the supercar world.
     
  15. Marcel Massini

    Marcel Massini Two Time F1 World Champ
    Honorary

    Mar 2, 2005
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    They also built roughly 1'300 Daytonas (365 GTB/4).
    Similar number.

    Marcel Massini
     
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  16. ScrappyB

    ScrappyB Formula 3

    Oct 3, 2017
    1,648
    I understand and agree with all the things you mentioned which is why I referred to my struggle being on a relative basis - especially since my own collecting habits span across various brands.
     
  17. dariedell

    dariedell Formula Junior

    Jul 12, 2021
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    I updated the report through Bonhams Bonmont (say that ten times fast). That auction actually put the number of F40's auctioned in person in 2023 higher than in 2022 - and it's still June. Lots of examples hitting the market this year. Meanwhile, the average market value continues its (slow) journey downward. The lagging average (which goes back through Paris) currently sits at $2.42m USD including both US and Euro specs. One thing I noticed while putting this update together is a recent spate of asking prices that seem more...optimistic than the asks seen earlier in the analysis when compared to contemporary auction results.

    https://datadriven.autos/market-analysis/ferrari-f40/#asking-prices-vs-auction-results

    The next update will probably be after Monterey. No F40's announced yet actually, but I'd be shocked if there weren't any. There were seven offered across the last two years.

    That bit was amusing. On its first mention I thought it was basically a typo in place of cat/non-cat, but they went on to mention 'early no-ABS spec' two more times. Weird because this was hardly Bonhams' first F40.

    I find the F40 vs. Carrera GT value comparison interesting because they have production numbers that are nearly identical and they each hold a place in a 'halo' supercar series of the top two most successful sports car manufacturers. Each also represents a particularly hardcore and unassisted entry that hasn't been replicated by either manufacturer for years now (the much rarer F50 being the only analog offering succeeding either). The biggest difference is obviously the age and the baseline technology delta therein, which will reduce in significance with each passing year going forward. The F40 is worth a lot more today and the only time this wasn't true was basically when the CGT was being sold at MSRP. Will this hold true in 10, 20, 30 years?

    I know the application of a 'market cap' is a pretty wonky concept when applied to something as non-fungible as cars, but if such a practice were to be applied, the F40 would certainly be very high on the list - 'quite unique' as you said. Its average market value belies its production number.
     
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  18. Marcel Massini

    Marcel Massini Two Time F1 World Champ
    Honorary

    Mar 2, 2005
    24,860
    No worries, there will be F40's available at auctions during the Monterey car week.

    Marcel Massini
     
  19. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    Mar 25, 2002
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    i think what you meant to say was 'unless it returns to Japan or HK."

    if it goes to the usa then its a paltry 2.5%.
    but everywhere else it will be something like 20%, which is half a million $ more/less....
     
  20. Birel

    Birel Formula 3

    Sep 12, 2005
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    Ummm.....yep, thats what I meant.....
     
  21. christiann

    christiann Karting

    Nov 29, 2006
    207
    F40 floor mats available anywhere? thanks
     
  22. dariedell

    dariedell Formula Junior

    Jul 12, 2021
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    Andrew Riedell
    We have our first:

    1990 US-spec #86498 is coming to Monterey via Mecum, specific date TBD but Saturday the 19th is a safe bet based on past years.

    https://www.mecum.com/lots/1085258/1990-ferrari-f40/

    Mecum offered this example in Arizona 3 months ago, where it failed to sell on a $2.6m bid that would have been $2.86m with premium.
     

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  23. Marcel Massini

    Marcel Massini Two Time F1 World Champ
    Honorary

    Mar 2, 2005
    24,860
    Driven just 61 miles in the last 6.5 years.
    (I understand 86498 was at Mecum's in Glendale/CA 28 March 2023 where it remained unsold).

    Also, there will be more than just one F40 at the various Monterey auctions.

    Marcel Massini
     
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  24. FerrfanFL

    FerrfanFL Formula 3
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    Feb 8, 2021
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    Ara
    I have a fraction of the F40 knowledge compared to most here, but this is a special car. It rose recently in value, some average cars fail to meet reserve lately. Global economies impact these numbers in my opinion. However, in the future, the values of these stunning cars will rise and rise. It is the penultimate Ferrari. Personally, I love it and am not too fond of the F50. This is known in my family as "The King". Short term lulls in the market now, but will far surpass these numbers in the near future. If I had the money, I'd buy the best one i could afford now and grin from ear to ear in a year or two.
     
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  25. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

    May 23, 2006
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    Excellent update.

    Given that 1,300 F40s were built there are always several handfuls for sale and the Monterey auctions always have multiples.

    Currently a quick scan of my notes shows over 20 F40s that are publicly available, and I personally know of @ 6 F40s that can be acquired privately though the latter number is a fraction of what's universally available.
     
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