Ferrari F40 market analysis

I’m a person who likes to drive my cars and use them both on street and track so similarly to someone like John the mileage metric is somewhat silly to me personally. But, as great a car as the F40 is there are still over 1,300 of them. At some point the market needs to use more granular differentiation to assign values and mileage becomes an important one with “so many” cars in existence. If a buyer is comparing options to distinguish their “investment” from others they’ll obviously look at US vs RoW, condition, rare options like plexi windows, history, and another easy and apparent one which is miles. It’s the easiest way to assign some sort of value in comparison to the rest of the cars in/on the market. Still I think using legitimately rare cars from the 50s and 60s to substantiate why the market should ignore miles on an F40 is ignoring the production numbers and how limited cars and limited options on the market weigh so heavily. Nobody cares about miles on early cars because for the most part it’s not an option, or there are tremendously few cars available in the first place that it cannot be a significant factor. 1,300 cars and a fairly liquid market however means buyers have more to compare and miles becomes a significant factor in the valuation.

 

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I imagine, if say a 250 swb popped up with 2,000 original miles and had say 1 owner from new, and was perfect in every aspect. it would probably break all records for that car.. ..[/QUOTE]

I dont know how a fixtional 2,000 mile SWB car could be perfect mechanically. Unless it was taken apart and restored mechanically every decade of its life. And then youd have to ask, if you want a car to look at and not drive, why would you do that? And yet you take that same 2,000 mile 1961 and put it up against one that won the TDF with Olivier Gendebien driving it, that raced at LeMans and races all over the world, my guess is the later would exclipse the lawn art.

Yes to each his own. And there are no doubt people that prefer to look at an F40 and not driving it, and yet I think thats the minority of automotive enthusiasts. Rather, Most collectors I have known over the last 30 years in the hobby would love to drive thier Enzo, F50, 288 or F40, but are afraid of devauling it bc of the miles. They fear turning what they know others may view as a holy grail F40 with 200 miles into a "Cheap" F40. And I find that an ironic shame. The idea that a odometer reading is what collectors most cling to as "cheap" or the holy grail, is quite literally to me insane because cars that sit, deteriorate mechanically as a rule. (no starting in everyone once and a while to get fluids going and driving around the block doesnt routinely for 40 years does not do it) Yes as a commentaror just said, with so many out there its the way collectors distinguish thier lawn or garage art from the other guys cheap F40. But Would the market not be more rational and the hobby better to have the option of creating menories driving your wife or kid in the car without the irrational devaluation based on an odometer statement?

I posit that the collector car hobby would be better if collectors of these cars, like really valuable ones, found ways to rank based upon real artibutes, cosmetics and service condition, LSW, Non/Non, etc.

It certainly would ellimate the fraud thats rampet with 70s, 80s and 90 odometer cables. Ever wonder how 75% of 308s have 30k miles on them?



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I agree with most of this. Yes there is so many out there and yes its a way for a guy with a super low mileage F40 to feel superior to another with a cheap F40 with a higher odometer reading. And its true that in 60s cars there is less an option. But its not ignoring to say that the realtive miles simply do not really matter on these cars, even 60s cars made in numbers of 1300 or higher. Take the 275 market thats just as liquid. Options, history, (racing or interesting ownership history) cosmetic and mechanical perfection) matter much more than odometer reading. If this often irrational mileage stigma is going to stick for a while and many of these cars simply will be static stuck bc owners will be afraid to use them. My point is not that there is no reality of the market having a way to rank cars in this way. My point is, the market is not very rational or in many ways good for the overall hobby.

My point is an extreme low odometer reading on a car often does not correlate directly to mechanical or even cosmetic condition. Yes its a distinimguishing factor in exotics, but why should it be? Is it rational? In may ways its a holdover from more common less exotics as a way to value bc miles usually relates to condition. But clearly not in the case of collector cars. Collectors, Humans like to categorize, sometimes in very odd ways to show rarity. Thats understandable. But Why should the hobby prize something that has little rational basis in reality and often actually in many ways negative to the mechanics. and worst and most important of all: does something very negative to the vast majority of collectors, namely the bad feeling you get from driving the car. In my veiw this irrational, and limits enjoyment of automotive enthusiasts, and in turn should be actively discouraged.




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You cannot assume that all very low mileage cars are negative in the mechanics,, my super low mile cars go to service every 12 -24 months and are gone over with fine details and what ever is needed is done...then trailed back to a climate controlled garage... and as I mentioned earlier.. the enjoyment is not limited by the driving aspect.. Everyone's enjoyment is different.

 

Im not say all. I am not commenting on your cars. But a 1,500 mile 40 year old car would of course need to be taken apart periodically, to ensure it was mechanically perfect bc its a reality that cars deteriorate when then sit.

I am saying miles do not correlate directly to condition cosmetically or mechanically

I acknowledge some people enjoy different things. I acknowledge there are some people who have no interest in driving an F40. And I will
not doubt your word if you give it that the reason you trailer your F40 to and from the dealer for service for non use is not because you are concern of the market cost of the miles but l because you honestly have no interest in driving your F40. People are different. But MOST car enthusiasts (im not saying you-) do this because of the market fear than putting miles on an odometer devalues it. And I find this sad. particuarly because not driving a car denies the pleasure of driving it and is not good for it and it needs remedial mechanic work bc its not being driven.

It makes rational sense that every single hour the jet flys it is devalued. But this is because theres a fixed monetary maintence required after the turbine engines time out. After an amount of hours the turbines (and plane) is amost wothless. This makes all the sense in the world.

Look I get irrational collector market markers. An outside bonnet latch E Type thats worth double an otherwise identical E Type without these silly pain in the ass chrome latches. Its a way of distinguishing the cars they made alot of. But this largely irrational collector quirk doesnt prevent the use of the car without devaluing it.

But the issue I have is the irrational odometer reading inhibits most collectors from the enjoyment they would get from the purpose they are built for, driving pleasure. It in my view inhibits the enjoyment for the vast majoirty of collectors who are concerned about the fiction of what an odometer readings show and mileage milestones that will devalue the asset. I find it a shame.




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I agree the cars were never intended to be used this way, its the same for a lot of assets now... My 2 low mile cars, still have the original tyres on which although look nice are like concrete... that's the reason I have it trailed to service.. if I change the rubber then some of the originality goes away.

 

By the way, while I am not
one of these people, I also get adult collectors who collect original Star Wars action figures and keep them in a sealed box behind glass. They collect them bc they remember them from thier youth and it gives them pleasure to collect them and fullful a childhood desire.
They were made to be played with but most adults will not open them
for fear of devaling them. (Lucasfilm touched on this in Toy Story 2). BUT, most adults dont desire to play with these action figures anymore. It fully satsifies the desire to have and collect them. and they are not losing any pleasure at all by not playing with them.

The saddness I have in the collector car world is most car collectors I know would get a lot of enjoyment from driving thier cars. They love the way they drive and sound and perform, and they do not dare simply because driving them irrationally but really devaluses them because of numbers on an odometer reading.



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If a consumable original rubber is important to you, and they dont remake them, you can put them
on a shelf and get another set of wheels and drive it. Ive done this with my Muiras and Countachs before Pirelli thankfully remade them. (interesting that the old rotted tires are not valuable anymore anymore than the old original gaskets and bushings)



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And its further to my point. Cars that sit rot. Not changing the rotting rubber parts bc they are original, but make the car unsafe to drive, is a view I can understand someone taking. But its on the edge of rationality and prevents pleasure of use.

While its questionable that refraining from replacing rotting original rubber is retaining market value even in this market,

Again, you can put the car in a sealed vault of it gives you pleasure. But again I suspect most people are doing this because of the fear of devaluing the asset. My point is it doesnt rationally have to be this way. It doesnt have to be that an odometer reading should have inherent value. Instead markers such as options, original condition can be paramount facctors in value markers, which would be better for the hobby. And it would be better if you could feel financially prudent to put new rubber on it and take your kid for a ride to the dealer

I cant think of a Ferrari collector who would not have gotten intense one in a lifetime pleasure from driving with Piero Ferrari driving his F50 through the hills of Tuscany on the Classic Cavalcade this year. Would you have enjoyed your F40 more if you did this with us if you knew it did not devalue your car, or with the history actually increased it? Maybe this would not have given you pleasure. my guess is so!


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Was about to mention this.
Remove OEM wheels and tires and install aftermarket wheels with new rubber and enjoy

 

Not a solution, not bc of easily buying new tires but because of the fear of devaling the car with the miles. And I get that rational concern about market reality

I race, rally, and drive all 24 cars and
yet feel the tug, reluctance of the market bc I dont also want to devalue the cars and try to avoid cars, feel reluctance of buying or feel
bad using those I cant use without devaluing. And I with it wasnt so bc its inhibits pleasure with no rational basis. The market is irrational, saps pleasure from the majority, and as we can see from others and more mature markets has no rational basis in and of itself other than group think.

There are always markers to stratify models that dont inhibit the pleasure of using the machines as designed


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In a way, mileage (history) adds character. I recently acquired an F40 with over 70,000 kms that had a celebrity first owner. If my car could talk, I'm sure it would have some interesting stories accumulating those miles by multiple owners across several countries.

The car has been well taken care of, is mechanically perfect and cosmetically sound. I saved around $1M versus an ultra low mileage example that hasn't really lived a life.... and should not be driven. I cared more about it being a non-cat/non-adjust car.

 

Correction, I had (past tense) several cars around 1.6m Eu, now I have just one (we have sold 4 F40s in the past 6 months, one with over 70,000 kms) and the word I would use is inexpensive and not 'cheap', the idea being it's an astute buy relative to pleasure gained and usage. We also have middle-miles cars we can offer, and we also have the proverbial low-mileage investment cars such as the 900-mile USA car that will probably take $4m to buy for some reason.

As regards value deltas in any market, they have always changed, and they will always change, this is true for many makes & models as time progresses, the notion that nothing will change is wishful thinking at best.

 

Glad you are enjoying it! Walter Wolf told me he once traversed a certain European country in record time going flat out in his F40.

 

It's also possible, with recent rate of appreciation, to buy a low-mile car and drive as one might typically a weekend car and, while forgoing some "profit", may still end up having been nicely paid to drive the car over that period of time?

 

I have a low mile car, it’s not miles that stop me from driving it. Rather, it’s nyc potholes, bicyclists, overgrown trees, soccer moms etc.

 

Correct, you can use a car regularly but sparingly, this happens with people with lots of cars, and also because life is busy with things other than our Ferraris.

 

i am very glad i bought my F40 with what at the time was considered high mileage at 12k km.
i think i probably got a better deal, a better car, and certainly a more enjoyable investment.....
since i bought it, i have put about 8k km more on it, across 7 countries, and it has risen in price about 5x.....
maybe if i had not driven it, it might be worth 6x....too bad

i dont have nearly the collection that John has, but the cars we have dont get stored for free - my father and i try to drive all of them (but 25 is a big number )
at a car show recently, i was driving our '61 series 1 flat floor xke, and as i was warming it up, a fellow came over and complimented me on the car, and then asked me what the mileage was....?!?!
i told him that the car had been restored twice so what difference did it make....he didnt know what to say.

other anecdote - i have a completely original 512bbi with interesting provenance, AND the original tires with air from Modena however, i bought it to drive it so i swapped out those original wheels/tires and put them aside for shows, and bought a set of daytona wheels with big balloon tires, and a set of "17 image wheels with sticky new tires, and i change them out when needed. that car has also been driven about 15k km since i owned it, including the targa florio and the giro di sicilia (with my father as copilot so the memory is cherished).

like i have said before, the best way to avoid putting a lot of miles on your ferrari, is to have many ferraris

 

I really hope for you that the factory has certified the original Maranello air in those tires?
It's gonna make a huge difference.

Marcel Massini

 

I dont know how a fixtional 2,000 mile SWB car could be perfect mechanically. Unless it was taken apart and restored mechanically every decade of its life. And then youd have to ask, if you want a car to look at and not drive, why would you do that? And yet you take that same 2,000 mile 1961 and put it up against one that won the TDF with Olivier Gendebien driving it, that raced at LeMans and races all over the world, my guess is the later would exclipse the lawn art.

Yes to each his own. And there are no doubt people that prefer to look at an F40 and not driving it, and yet I think thats the minority of automotive enthusiasts. Rather, Most collectors I have known over the last 30 years in the hobby would love to drive thier Enzo, F50, 288 or F40, but are afraid of devauling it bc of the miles. They fear turning what they know others may view as a holy grail F40 with 200 miles into a "Cheap" F40. And I find that an ironic shame. The idea that a odometer reading is what collectors most cling to as "cheap" or the holy grail, is quite literally to me insane because cars that sit, deteriorate mechanically as a rule. (no starting in everyone once and a while to get fluids going and driving around the block doesnt routinely for 40 years does not do it) Yes as a commentaror just said, with so many out there its the way collectors distinguish thier lawn or garage art from the other guys cheap F40. But Would the market not be more rational and the hobby better to have the option of creating menories driving your wife or kid in the car without the irrational devaluation based on an odometer statement?

I posit that the collector car hobby would be better if collectors of these cars, like really valuable ones, found ways to rank based upon real artibutes, cosmetics and service condition, LSW, Non/Non, etc.

It certainly would ellimate the fraud thats rampet with 70s, 80s and 90 odometer cables. Ever wonder how 75% of 308s have 30k miles on them?







The Brinks truck follows no one to the grave nor would it be useful.

 

The view you state is a valid view and agreed by many, but the Ferrari super cars have rightly or wrongly become liquid assets, a place to hide money or place an allocation in a portfolio.. Any high end asset has the same parameters, take say a 16520 Rolex Daytona .. you can buy a nice used example for say 30k..,but an example which still has its stickers on and full documentation.. trades at double .. Why, because the perception is that it is basically as new and as close to a new example.. that’s why this asset class is treated the same .. I’ve worked with 2 large assets mangers this last year, and their mandate is less than 5k in mile.. that is the market these guys are in.. A lot of these cars are being bought and put away in storage facilities.. and left .. their mandate is 10 years to bring back to market.. The cars are serviced every 2 years and taken back to storage.

 

A never-worn Rolex in the box with stickers and certificates is a very different proposition compared to a sub-5,000 miles Supercar. Whereas such a watch is truly as-new, the only cars that can be comparable would have to be a truly delivery-mileage car of -/+ 100 factory test miles with factory plastic on the seats and sales sticker still glued to the window.

People may think 5,000 miles is low but you can drive from London to Mumbai in that distance and we've inspected cars with less mileage that had their nose, headlights and windscreen fairly well sand-blasted already.

I think investors are trying to stretch the parameters of what is truly defined as a time-warp "as new" example, this happens when everyone wants to participate in a market where upside is perceived as easy to gain. That said, buyers are quite astute in this era, and since cars were built to used on the road, long-term storage cars are not looked upon favorably because despite regular maintenance they cannot be reliably used on the road without significant mechanical refurbishment to prepare it for same.

 

I think this is where you are missing the point.. the fund guys are not looking to drive the cars .. they are just liquid assets, they have bought around 30 million in cars and they will not be driven , just serviced and back in storage..
A car I know well, every year comes over from Germany and is serviced at Barkaways, it has 4 miles since 2005.. car is perfect and although may not be the best road driver.. it is as new in every aspect.

 

Regarding cars that are not driven, I get the point, hence my response www.ferrarichat.com

How many miles does this car you know have exactly in total?