Ferrari Future Values

Normally Aspirated will be sought after in the future.

 

I feel your pain, I sold my 87 328 in 2000 for .... Well today it would easily be worth double and probably close to three times what I sold it for (below $50 K)
Closer to $40 K, hoping my current 3 pedal can be driven enough to offset those horrific capital gains tax when it soars up in value
Lesson learned ... maybe lol

 

I don't think turbos have much to do with it. Porsche 930s, 993TT's, etc., are doing fine, value-wise.

I suspect the cars that will hold/gain value in the future will be the relatively simple ones up through roughly 1990, and of course the "supercars" -- 288 GTO, F40, F50, Enzo, LaFerrari, just because they are relatively scarce.

That simplicity and durability is a big part of the air-cooled Porsche appeal. (I moved from Ferrari to a Porsche in small part for that reason - although the extra cash involved probably would have covered a lot of Ferrari maintenance...)

No one in his right mind is going to want be left holding the bills when the electronics in 599s, etc., are 20 years old and start to fail. It's $20K to replace a California audio/nav center "stack" today if you go OEM. To some degree, the optimal move is to ditch these cars before they get to the point where they need restoration/refurbishment.

We don't know how modern cars will fare over time. I would stick with the 328/Boxer and earlier, if value over time is a concern for you.

 

I have a 930 Turbo and understand the Turbo thing with Porsches. I believe Ferrari will be totally different because they have mostly been NA historically with the exception of 288 and F40. I drive a M4 daily. It's a great car, but the lag is still there and I would much rather it be NA. I think people expect F cars to be high revving and NA. Time will tell, but I'd bet on the NA personally. As far as electronics, people will solve the issues as time moves forward. Like the guy in Florida who rebuilds F1 actuators fit a fraction of the price of OEM. I also think cars that aren't built like appliances will be desirable. Ie. up to 355 era.

 

I don't think the 360 and newer will ever become collector items as there were just too many made. Plus if Ferrari goes through with their marketing plan on mass marketing items to capitalize on their name (and brand) it will become less desirable. Look what Mercedes has done. Now for $28K you can drive a brand new one and they are all over the place.
Now, there is nothing special about a Mercedes.

 

They are getting wrecked regularly. They will go up, but it's going to take a while, probably another 20 years.

Art

 

As engines are reduced in size and number of cylinders, expect the "good old days" cars with big V8s and V12s to be the rage.

IMO, a 430 Spider, 6-speed will be one of the most sought-after of all Ferrari non-supercars as it blends lower maintenance with nearly 500 hp and three pedals.

Even lowly Mercedes will have a few desirable models even though all come with automatics. The SLS and the 65 series will be desirable simply because of how much engine is under the hood.

 

I think you're right on the SLS, due to the styling. But the high end Mercs seem to lose 90 percent of their value pretty quickly, because no one wants to be stuck with the horrendous costs of repairing aging German technology out of warranty.

As long as a modern Ferrari is under warranty, I think values will hold up. Remember, if you want three pedals, every Ferrari ever made had them up to 1996 (?)

 

actually in the 12 cylinder up till 2001 with the 550 then very rare occurrences trough the 599
I have not idea what the future will bring but the argument that too many of a car are built to be come a collector item just is not true ... I mean ferrari only builds around 7000 cars a year.. no matter how you slice it that is not many cars and as they get older a new generation of people show up that have dreamed of which ever model suits them since they were kids and that is one of the biggest drivers of collectablity .

 

Although Testarossa's have skyrocketed lately, they can still be had at good value. In fact, what else can you get under $120k that's so iconic?
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It is pretty obvious you don't know what the word exponential means!

In this context, if a car is worth X in year 1, it is worth x*x in year 2, x*x*x in year 3, and so on.

No car, even a 365 Daytona is rising that kind of fast.

 

Disagree with your logic esp. with the 360. It's numbers are far less the current new generation cars. Just look at the 246 Dino, it's production in it's day was relatively large, it was not even considered a true Ferrari. Times have changed as has production audience. When I purchased my first Ferrari, a Dino,shops, service,parts were difficult to find, there was no Asian market etc, so realtive production numbers by those stndards was truly high. Whole new story as time has progressed, markets have opened up and numbers have increased. At this time I do believe the killer for the modern computer cars, is just that-the computers rather than their numbers. Back to the 360- It's computer needs are relatively small. All in all just a thought. Having collected for many years,I truly believe the number one attraction to cars gone by are what inspired me to buy that first--Looks and longing in youth as I passed up on the purchase of a 275 GT and a Daytona Coupe for the Dino.

 

I don't know why it's a painful experience. The only way to capture that appreciation is to sell the car. So either you love the car or you love the money. You can't love both.

Given the fact that you sold it (them?) then I guess you didn't love the cars that much and now you're wishing that held onto something that you didn't really enjoy just for the sake of having more money. I guess there's nothing wrong with that but it seems like an odd juxtaposition to me. If it was time to sell a car to buy something you enjoyed more, there's nothing wrong with that.

As far as the cars mentioned here, I think that the last special V8 is the 355 and the last special V12 is the 550 Maranello. These are not so computerized that they are hard to maintain. In fact, they have been so worked on so much over the years that the issues are all well known and easily solved.

Couple that with the fact that modern exotics are so fast that they're practically unusable on the street, I have found it way more fun to drive a less powerful analog car like my 348 Challenge (330 hp) on the street than a 458. When I want to go fast over long distances, I have my 550 (500hp) and if I want to go really fast and have that race car experience I have my F40 (575hp). At the end of the day, however, each is equally as fun and perfectly suited to its mission.

I don't care what any of them are worth because I love them more than the money they would bring. If I had unlimited amounts of money and I could only buy a few things, it would be the cars I own now plus a couple more that I'll hopefully add in the future. So what's the point of selling them just to capture the appreciation? I can't imagine being without any one of them and I would take them all over their modern equivalents that have so much power that it has to be overly controlled and dumbed down just to be usable. In all honesty, depending on the car's weight, 400hp to 550hp is pretty much the maximum you can have on the street and still be able to put your foot down every once in a while.

As time goes on, you will find the cars that are the most thrilling to drive on lonely back roads and the easiest to maintain will be the cars that enthusiasts seek out then it will be all about supply and demand. But if you have something that you love, then its value will be irrelevant.

 

Re:
"It is pretty obvious you don't know what the word exponential means!





In this context, if a car is worth X in year 1, it is worth x*x in year 2, x*x*x in year 3, and so on. "




Why does the period have to be 1 year? And exponent of 2?

Virtually no asset can withstand true "exponential" appreciation for more than a few cycles. I believe poster meant more of a metaphor for rapid appreciation.

I think the important thing is the appreciation curve is not linear although one could argue a very steep slope linear would closely mimic exponential.


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I get that but my point remains: if you want a more expensive car instead of the one you have, why would you hold onto it? If you don't like it, you don't like it. Living with something you don't like in the hopes that it will one day appreciate seems like a fool's game to me. If you want something else then just buy it already. You will be much happier that way.

Both of those cars you're considering (or were considering, I can't tell) aren't likely to appreciate anytime in the near future anyways, as has also been pointed out, so I'm not sure what the issue is.

Regardless, I hope that you get the car you want and you're happy with your choice. Life is too short.

 

Funny, I remember guys saying this about carbureted cars when Fuel injection was becoming the norm.

 

I just purchased a 612 and for most of my adult life owned BMWs, Porsches and Audis. Normally when I buy one I know it's temporary until the next one comes out. With the exception of my former R8, I haven't had as much of an emotional bond with the cars. I liked them a lot but couldn't wait to get the next one. This is the first car that when asked the question, how long will you keep it, I've replied that I don't see myself selling it unless I need to. I'm not itching to replace it with an FF. it's timeless lines make it perfect just the way it is. There's something to be said for that. As we reflect back on the last era of cars there are few that I could have said that about. It really is a whole different ball game. For that reason certain F cars will absolutely appreciate over time. V12s, manuals, and the best looking and rarest ones will continue to rise. As for significant appreciation I think that's tied more towards economic market conditions more than the cars themselves. When people are making money they can afford to play with ferraris. When market tanks it can be the first luxury that mama wants gone lol.

 

The exponent can be anything. But when a number (>4) points are graphed on log-log graph paper they need to be on a straight line.

Which is why the word "exponential" is completely out of place as an adjective describing the rise in value of an old car.

 

And they were right.
Carbed 308s bring a premium.

 

Never say never. Even the "experts" got it wrong. About 10-12 years ago, they said 328s are just used cars and will not be a collector or go up in value because Ferrari made too much (6068 GTS and 1k+ GTB). Same with the Testarossa. Look at the prices now. ( I understand we may be in a bubble). Give the 360 another 15-20 years.

 

This is consistently true..

 

This is one of the best posts on FChat I have read in a long time. You capture it perfectly. Thank you for sharing.