hello, i posted this under ferrari discussion (not model specific) and didn't get much of a response. so i thought i'd diect the question locally. there has been a lot of discussion about ferraris supply/demand for the current f430 and the new f599. from newbie's complaining about not being on their dealers "list" to flippers asking a 50% (or more) premium for their car. i'm from the MTV generation (generation X, i believe is what it's called) i remember seeing $144K testarossa in the tribune classifieds for $300K. Car & Driver did a road test of the new F40 and was quoting "over a million dollars" asking price from dealers. are we revisiting the 80's run up on ferraris? only to see the market crash again like in 1991. or is this truly a supply and demand issue. i'd hate to see ferrari expand beyond their self imposed 5,000-6,000 cars per year. perhaps 1991 re-revisited may put things back in prespective. i don't want to see a dino in every shopping mall, a ferrari for the masses. as much as i'd love to see a ferrari replace my porsche in my garage. i can't help but think... "it's not the kill, it's the thrill of the chase" regards joseph
Joe, it is a very interesting question. Just look into your crystal ball and you'll get the answer. All joking aside, its hard to give a precise answer, because of the huge differences between the early 90's and today. Back then, if you wanted an exotic, you could pick between one of the roughly 2700 Ferraris being imported each year and one of the 60 Lamborghinis each year. Today Ferrari brings about 4000 Ferraris to the US and Lambo brings over a 1000. So Ferrari has a lot more competition than it did back then (such as Lambos, Porsches, AMG 65s etc). Back then ALL new Ferraris were going for way over sticker, where as now, you just have the hottest and newest models (430s and 599s)selling for over sticker. I am not positive, but I would think that a Ferrari dealer would be more than willing to negotiate back of MSRP for some of the harder to sell new cars. As for the older, classic cars ( Daytonas, 275s, Miuras) they have all seen double digit percent value increases each of the last 3 or 4 years and will likely continue to do so. Just remember, buy what you love and you'll be happy regardless of what the market does.
Actually Ferrari sold approximately 1500 cars in the US in 2005. They sold more than 5,000 cars worldwide in 2005. http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=108918 If the new entry level Ferrari does go into production I would guess Ferrari would sell closer to that 4000 figure you listed above. I do believe pricing will remain high in the future because demand is so much stronger than supply. I do not see that changing any time soon. Even if Ferrari produces an entry level car that will not take people away from the F430's and 599GTBs since their production numbers are still relatively low. Growth in other markets around the world means it is harder for Ferrari to keep producing the same number of cars for our markets without expansion. F430 owners will be put on the list for the F430 replacement. The same will happen on the 599GTB since the production numbers will be much lower compared to the F430. So the same cycle will start over again when a new car comes out. This will always happen as long as the lists remain long and production for key models does not increase substantially. Everyone wants a Ferrari because they keep there value versus all the other exotics which depreciate more quickly. The premiums paid help keep prices high for the cars which is great thing for owners who can get their cars at MSRP. Despite increased competition, Ferrari just keeps making better cars. That being said I think that if you do not want to play games to get a car buy something else. There are so many options out there. But if money is no object, buy what you want, pay the premium and get the latest and greatest Ferrari.
A friend of my dad's bought a mondial back in 89 JUST to get on the list for a TR (he never got it). I just look at the "speculation" and think, "not my problem". I'll never be the guy begging to pony up $250K for a car (just reality, not lack of the want to be that guy!). Heck, if I had $250K, I could come up with 3-6 cars to buy! Remember, there is a whole lot more wealth being thrown around now then there was back in the early 90s (and some of it is actually real!).
It's cute that you call a Porsche or Merc "competition". I never considered them part of the exotic car market (exceptions being the CGT and the McLaren Merc). Pagani, Veyron, Saleen, Koenigsegg, McLaren, those are competition, but then again they only make a handful of them anyway. That leaves Lambo and Aston Martin and those I'd consider competition. Regarding Joseph's question I think Ferrari finally found its roots again and landed a hit with the 599. I mean what's not to like (apart from the wheels)? So we're back to the usual 2 year waiting period, which of course brings in the flippers. Nothing new really. Apart from that I don't see the market overheating as it did in the late eighties. Having said that, the 30 year curve to render a car from exotic to vintage is in full swing and cars of the late (earlier anyway) sixties are starting to demand top bucks. Give it another ten years and the currently "dirt cheap" Ferraris from the seventies will be an investment. Good time to think about that 365 GTC?
Let's not fool ourselves to think that Veyron,Pagani,Koenigsegg or McLaren are Ferrari's competition. With the exception of Enzo,these new Brands are a step above ,both in price and the image,the only real ,direct competition includes Lambos,Astons and (for some)an occasional SL65.
Cars like the Veyron, Pagani, and Koeniggseg really do not offer much competition for Ferrari for the simple fact of the extremely low production numbers of these cars. Besides, the guy paying $1.xM for a Veyron doesn't need to choose it over his Ferrari....he'll keep them both. Cars like the AMG 65s and 997TT are more competition then people realize, and are produced in such a volume, that these manufacturers target the exotic car buyers. They offer similar hp and performance and price, and any of them are more practical to use over a Ferrari. But, imo, just not as much fun as the Ferraris!
