or wait a lil bit longer and stretch to a 488 which will soon be dropping towards 458 .
I don't think the gap between a 430 and 458 will ever be 20 grand. Right now its about 70 grand if you shop around. To me the 458 is the most beautiful production Ferrari made in the last few decades. It may continue to hold its value as "the last on the Naturally aspirated V-8s". The 430 looks are nice but not stunning like the 458. As said before the 458 borders on "supercar". I'm sure the 488 crosses that threshold.
performance is measurable, and the 458 wins that fight hands down. beauty is in the eye of the beholder tho....
if you just take the averages, you will see that there are more than 300 458's for sale in the usa at an average ask of $238k, there are about 200 430's for sale at an average of 156k, and there are about 100 360's for sale at an average of about 101k. and so on.... the 458 may not get to a delta as low as 20k over the 430, but time will compress the deltas, its just inevitable.
here is another reference point... when i took my 430 into the dealer the other day to get a couple things adjusted, there was a 458 up on a lift getting some body work done on the front right corner - accident related. i remarked to the head body guy (friend of mine) that it all seemed kind of flimsy, and he agreed, saying that the front clip is kind of just suspended in front of the wheels with a few elements. in contrast, he said the 430 is much more solid. (btw, he also said the most solid car of the recent models is the f12).
As much as I am fan of the 346/430 models I do not think that in three years the cars will sell for a difference of 20K. I think the reason there seem to be more 458's is because there are many Ferrari owners who just want the latest model and they bought 488's. The 340/430 cars are to me the last of the not so perfect cars, they have flaws that for someone like me make them more desirable. Of course three years is a long time and many things have happened in the last three years that I would not only not have predicted, but would have thought were not even remotely possible.
Buy a 430 for sub $100k price and save yourself $60k because the 458 will be down there in a couple years.
I've never driven a 430, so I can't say directly. Others who have are split, with some preferring the 360, but most the 430. I decided I'd rather have a stick 360 than an F1 430, as they are similar money. Manual 430's are very expensive. The consensus is that the 430 is another step towards the civilized, and a little less raw. I like raw.
458 in every way.......especially if you are referring to a Spider........folding roof over soft top...can't compare.
I am in the same position as the OP, however I am looking at a 430 Scuderia or a 458. The other thought though is a 430 3 pedal. 170-190K Scuderia 155-180K 458 Buy an F1 430 08/09 and convert it to a 6 speed. 90-120K Hard decisions.
yup, that folding roof on the 458 is very special. so if the spider is the focus, then the 458 gets the nod, money aside.
I've driven both. Both great cars. Consider what you like in the looks department. for me, the 458 is one of the greatest looking modern Ferrari's. Performance - the 458 will blow your mind
The only caveat would be the complexity of spider roof mechanisms, and their tendency to get in the way of some service procedures.
I pontificate on this quite a lot, although unlike you and the OP, I am a couple of years away. But every time, I get the same answer....the Scuderia is special, and would provide an increased sense of occasion over the "better" 458. Now I need the Scuderia market to tank hard
Everyone has a performance sweet spot. I love my 308 - and so does everyone who sees it! - but it's not a knock-your-socks-off performer, as you know. The 360 stick is my sweet spot. I'll restore the 308 to perfection and sell it when the market is stronger, but the 360 is a keeper.
When I sell the 308, I'm going to get either a 612 or an FF. I miss having a V12 touring car. The 456M got me addicted to the torque and sound.