Ferrari built a lot of extra manufacturing capacity. (Remember they wanted to make 10,000 cars per year) How many 458's produced (over the life of the model) will be a very interesting part of the price equation. What was the total number of 360's and 430's ??? It will be very tempting for Ferrari to build plenty of 458's and 478's over the next 8 years to make back some of that capital investment. Do you think they will be able to hold the line, or do you see productions numbers rising about the 360/430 levels? I know Ferrari originally wanted to make the 458 more expensive and make fewer of them.
My dealer's projection is the price will be ~$300K and it will not be available until late next year. We will have to wait until the following year for the spider. This number has been quoted by many members on this forum so I suspect it is the best number to rely on for now.
BTW, California is a hardtop convertible, and HT convertible does cost more, just like all other HT convertible cars. If Ferrari make California non-convertible version I bet the base price will drop $20K easily($170K range), then $220-230K base MSRP for 458 coupe is very reasonable($50K higher than entry level model). So I bet 458 Spider will have $250-260K base MSRP($50K higher than California convertible).
I think you are very close to the real figures. Unless there is a huge inflation of the $,the base price of the 458 will be not only less then $300k (as so many predict here) but comfortably below $250k.
"the base price of the 458 will be not ONLY less then $300k (as so many predict here) but comfortably below $250k."
My guess is 325k for a spyder with options. Deduct some for the hardtop. Most of the 16m's are in that range and that's my rational. I think the days of 250k are over.