HILARIOUS 348 CHALLENGE / PRIUS INCIDENT

Well maybe.

The civic sedan Diesel should be about $14350+6% tax where I live, = $15211. MPG = 34.5 x 1.5 = 52.4 average mpg. 100,000/52.4 x $2.00=$3817 in fuel. The total cost is then 15211 + 3817= 19028. Compared to $1977 for gas and 24952 for the hybrid. So even with gas and diesel priced the same, the diesel is the best choice, then gas, then way way back is a hybrid.

Taxes can make the balance change $ wise, but not polution wise. I probably should have taken that out of the math, but would only make the hybrid come out worse if I did. In the US, gas and diesel are taxed about $.50/gallon last I knew. In most of Europe, the tax is something like $3.00/ gallon so using less fuel has a bigger appeal, so that's a good thing I guess, although it make it hard on industry, they can't afford to move material. The main problem is then building cars that burn less like hybrids take hold even though overall though their whole life they are burning more fuel not less.

As an aside, I personally kind of like that all the oil will be pumped out of the middle east in the next 20 years or so and the whole area becomes basically irrelevent instead of a major problem. Also, that will leave coal as the only real option. Coal can be made into gas, diesel, fuel oil or anything else and the US has enough to supply all the worlds energy needs for about 200-300 years. I think we also have a lot of urainium, there is also a lot in africa though and that could become a problem. The sad truth is that the world wasting energy today is very very good for the US tomorrow.

 

mk e, those are good calculations and I agree there is a downside to these hybrids... right now. The point that needs to be mentioned is that this is still relatively new technology.

There was a time when gasoline powered internal combustion motors were new technology and one could do a write up on how a horse and carriage is a better means of getting around. Obviously time moves on, and technology develops. Stay tuned to see how good these hybrids get. Just look at the progress made from the first Prius to the current model.

The best way to develop these cars is not in isolation but rather in the marketplace where customer demands and competition will force the development to continue at a rapid pace.

One final though that we should keep in mind here: fossile fuels are FINITE. We will be running out of oil some time in the next several hundred years. Developing alternative fuels is not a means of saving money, it is a means of saving our society.

 

Koby -- I know your heart is in the right place, but you need to accept the laws of physics and thermodynamics (or explain how you are going to change them ). A Prius is not an "alternative fuel" -- it is just another (more inefficient overall) device for burning our existing fuels. If you can suggest any alternative fuels that we can use without consuming even more of our existing fuels to produce them, I'm sure the scientific community would like to hear from you. I almost fell out of my chair when you posted "They still need to develop a light weight battery solution" -- you might as well have said "we just need to develop time travel".

I do agree with you that we will eventually consume our existing fuel stocks, but I don't understand why trying to live like we already have consumed them is a good "solution". We're so stupidly green here in Boulder that we burn 2 candles of energy to raise enough money so that we can artificially produce 1 candle of energy by wind power -- great idea, yes?

Sorry for the rant, but thinking good thoughts doesn't fix the reality. Personally, I support extreme human population control as the only best long term solution for our finite world; however, since this will never happen, I don't see why I should help others continue to overpopulate themselves at the maximum rate -- just my viewpoint...

 

Poor choice of words, granted. Certainly the only clear answer in the debate about breaking the fossil fuel habit is that we haven't found the right solution yet. Even electric cars are not all they seem, as the pollution created by the power plant to make the electricty to charge them is usually far worse than what the car would have put out in the first place. Still, we must keep trying, but in the meantime I still like the Prius. Great thread though!

 

Mke, your analysis seems to assume that energy used in factories to manufacture cars ads as much air pollution to the world as is produced using fuel in a car's internal combustion engine

It would seem to me that factory energy may come from cleaner sources and be more easily regulated to produce less emmissions than are possible/practical when it comes to car engines. So I would rather have more energy consumed in the manufacturing process and less in the cars not simply to clean up the air where I live, but may create a net decrease in polution regardless of location. (besides, it puts fewer dollars in the saudi pockets)

 

Yes, the analysis equates energy consumption to pollution. The truth is that only combustion products come out of a car during operation where a factory makes all kind of terrible by-products, particularly during the manufacture or disposal of things like batteries. Most electricity is made in coal burning plants that emit tons of sulfur compounds, very bad for the environment. Every time I try to look harder at the problem, it just makes things like hybrids look worse. I know it seems counterintuitive, but when all industries are held to the same waste disposal standards, it very much seems that if something is good for your wallet, it is probably also the best choice for the environment. We all want the answer to come out different so we can consume resources at any rate we please without there being a price to pay, but that is not, nor will it ever be the case.

I’m just an engineer, I can’t change the facts, I just analyze them. The heart of the problem is that there are more people alive today than have ever died in the history of humanity. Think about that. My best estimate is that there are about 10-50 times more people than the planet can sustain. Most people don’t know this, but fertilizer that makes it possible to feed the world is made from natural gas and it will be gone in 20-30 years last I heard. The suffering that is in Africa and spreading into the middle east (despite the oil income) will continue to get worse. Every person on the face of the planet seems to believe it is there right and in some places duty to make as many babies as they choose. If population growth stops, economies will collapse. If the population continues to grow then humanity will collapse. And no hybrid, full cell or fancy battery is going to change that. The USA is in a very good position since we are geographically isolated from most of the world and have a huge energy reserve, so the problems will come here last, but they will come. There is no math that will let life as we have come to know it for the past 50-100 continue for more than another 50 years or so. It’s the same thing that happened on Easter Island, one day they cut down the last tree to make the last fishing boat and then they all died. It is going to get ugly. Best not to think about it.

 

Mike, great post. Only I don't think I'll be able to sleep tonight now that I've read it.