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How valuable is the last of a technology

Discussion in '458 Italia/488/F8' started by MalibuGuy, Feb 10, 2015.

  1. MalibuGuy

    MalibuGuy F1 Veteran

    Sep 18, 2007
    5,061
    The 458 and Special are now the last of the NA v-8s

    One can make a case that hypothetically these models are automatically made more special since they mark the end of Ferrari's V8 NA technology. But is this really the case?

    About eight years ago Ferrari made the switch to paddle shifting and many voiced the concern that the brand had turned their back on the customer. The 612/ 599, F430 and California (albeit only three manuals were made) were the last Ferraris which could be bought with a manual transmission.

    Today we can still ask if the manual shift cars are as sorely missed as they were years ago. Or has time made that debate irrelevant? Are customers asking for manual shift cars? Did Eric Claptons one off come with paddles? Or what about those one-off open top F12s--were any optioned with a manual shifter?

    The reason I pose this, has to do with the current hand wringing which seems to surrounds the new turbo v8.

    Somehow, I think that time will again prove the doom-sayers wrong.
     
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  3. RBK

    RBK F1 Rookie

    Jul 27, 2006
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    Agreed, we all have short memories, and seemingly want immediate gratification. Paraphrasing a line from the movie the "Big Chill" ; a rationalization is more important than sex, why? Who here goes a day without a rationalization? We all reconcile cognitive dissonance and justify change. Pretty soon the "change" becomes history and the process begins again. Best

     
  4. Rcktrod

    Rcktrod F1 Rookie

    Dec 21, 2010
    3,946
    USA
    I think that you are 100% correct. Technology marches on. It's a romantic notion that one of our modern day Fcars could one day be a classic. Much of what we believe in is based upon "hope". I see this as the same thing. The hope that one day my Speciale, or whatever model, will be a classic and not merely a depreciating (fun as it is) asset. We can dream.
     
  5. asianbond

    asianbond Formula 3
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    Disagree. Engine is much more important than gearbox type.

    I vote with my wallet.
     
  6. PhilNotHill

    PhilNotHill Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Jul 3, 2006
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    Vinyl records seem to be making a comeback. But...

    Just as in the past the Ferrari turbo Fcar won't last long ala F40 and 288. Hybrids here we come!
     
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  8. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    7,019
    I agree! That's why adding a new era car to a last era stablemate is a win-win!

    There are things though that most folks, incl myself, have come to expect of a Ferrari:
    sound, sharp pointy front-end & raw visceral feedback

    Those themes should always carry through from era to era, regardless!
     
  9. Surfah

    Surfah F1 Rookie

    Dec 20, 2011
    3,134
    Porsche 993 commands a premium. 991 is far superior by objective measures.
     
  10. justthebest

    justthebest Formula Junior

    May 14, 2014
    319
    Denver, CO
    I see it as a two-part issue - the NA experience will be functionally replicated pretty soon using hybrid tech, but I see the largest issue with horsepower: the 562 is already overkill for the road, and moving into the 600s will (finally) bring on diminishing returns (for street cars).
     
  11. arcangel

    arcangel Formula Junior

    Jan 8, 2013
    438
    The analogy to manual gear change and F1 paddles does not seem appropriate . The engine is so much more of the heart and soul of a car . And that is the reason why i did not choose Maclaren .
     
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  13. simsko

    simsko F1 Rookie

    Feb 5, 2012
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    Everyone is always wary of new things. Then people will drive them, love them and then they become the norm until the next wave of advancement.
     
  14. RBK

    RBK F1 Rookie

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    I understand your point. However cars with automatic gearboxes are faster than those with manuals. Most favor the naturally aspirated motor, in part because of "sound", yet we are cuing up to buy the 488. We all allude to the Ferrari "experience", difficult to describe, but seemingly motivating us to spend $400,000 for one marque when there are others that go faster and sound good. Best

     
  15. shawminator

    shawminator Karting

    May 16, 2008
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    Austin
    I think that the last of the normally aspirated V8 Speciale's stand the best chance of holding their value. Time will tell.
     
  16. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 Veteran
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    Jun 11, 2013
    9,804
    I think you are right in the broad general sense.

    In the case of the stick shift cars- they didn't make that many and there still is a demand from those who want stick shift and that will give those cars a little bit of extra demand- and to that extent there could be some price delta over the stock of F1 cars available.

    In the case of the 458 and Speciale, there are just too many of them to ever cause a premium above the simple market conditions of supply and demand. Perhaps the 458 Speciale A, with its more constrained numbers, might get a small bump for being "the last of the NA" cars....

    It all comes down to supply and demand.

    IMHO Ferrari will redefine the experience and most of us will come along for the ride. There always is a vocal minority who resist the change, and for them, there is the past production of which there are thousands of examples available.
     
  17. Noblesse Oblige

    Noblesse Oblige F1 Veteran

    Nov 7, 2011
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    Three Places
    Good discussion thread.

    My POV: There is no either-or here. Technology does march on but nostalgia is also a powerful psychology. By all objective measures, DCTs far outperform manual shifts and in endurance racing they also endure better. But manual shifts remain in demand by drivers who feel they are more engaging. For example 3-pedal F430s were once market priced at 10K below F1s; now there are commanding a premium. Porsche announces a Cayman GT4 with manual only for "drivers." This is an interesting marketing psychology; it implies that all DCT owners are not quite real drivers.

    I suspect that in the turbo era, the same thing will happen. 800hp Turbos will triumph in any objective contest of speed and acceleration, but they will not be as engaging or satisfying as a high compression NA engine with its instant response and exciting sounds. As in the 3-pedal cars, it may take a few years but ultimately owners who keep their end point NA V8s will do fine.

    So the choice for owners is a matter of values: what matters more for you. Objective measures of performance or more emotive factors of driving. There is no "right answer."
     
  18. Zaius

    Zaius Formula Junior

    May 8, 2014
    857
    Mass production ruined supercars you have models being pumped out nonestop and people are more obsessed with what the future brings then enjoying the present. In the last 10 years we've had what about 15 new Ferrari's introduced?

    People talking about car technology... umm the internal combustion engine is now over 100 years old. DCT's are 30 years old +, turbos are around for half a century, the only thing that has improved is reliability even though nobody has put any modern cars to the test in terms of longevity. Sorry guys this is more like stagnation to me, the cars are "better" in the sense they are easier to use in day to day conditions, more engaging? Well that is questionable at best.
     
  19. Peace Frog

    Peace Frog Formula Junior
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    I own a 993, so I may be biased... but I see a 993 as the end of 30+ years of basically the same car. If the 328 on up to the 458 were essentially more powerful iterations of the 308, then I could see this being a natural break like the 993 to the 996. But since they are more like pairs of different cars (348 and 355, 360 and 430, 458 and 488) I think it's "onwards and upwards." Sure, you'll have the pockets of people that will see the 458 as the "last true Ferrari" like each successive model before it with a manual, or with the 3 liter block or the last rear V12, etc.

    When someone asks me if my car is a 993, 99% of the time the next statement out of their mouth is, "The Last of The Air-Cooleds™," without fail. My wife just rolls her eyes now she's heard it so many times from strangers. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the person walking up to a 458 in 10 years is going to be more like, "WOW a FERRARI!" vs "458? The Last of The Normally Aspirated™"
     
  20. Surfah

    Surfah F1 Rookie

    Dec 20, 2011
    3,134

    Good point. Some love porsche because the 911 has been a long evolution rather than revolution.
     
  21. shawminator

    shawminator Karting

    May 16, 2008
    206
    Austin
    Great point on the last of the air cooled Porsches. I have a buddy who has one, and he here's that quite frequently! :)
     
  22. 458trofeo

    458trofeo F1 Rookie

    Feb 4, 2013
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    +1
     
  23. MARMIST

    MARMIST Formula 3

    Jul 1, 2014
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    U said u managed to get an allocation for an Aperta, some time ago.

    THAT car will hold the value. I am sure of it. The Speciale no. Too many produced of them.
     
  24. DK308

    DK308 F1 Rookie

    Aug 13, 2013
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    There's a few things we have to consider.

    First off. A lot of 458's have been made. Does this in itself take away from the cars capabilities? No. But it will never be rare. Speciales and SA's, that's a different story, but let's for arguments sake, stick with the Italia and Spider for now.
    Technology moves on, and currently, there will be a lot of 458 owners who are more interested in the latest and greatest - turbos be damned. If this was such a massive issue, would McLaren or Porsche sell cars? No. What will happen is that some of the costumer base will change. There are a lot of people, especially the up and coming young new owners who thinks turbos are cool and just a great thing to have. To them, this will make the 488 more appealing. Will those 10-15 year olds who will be regular costumers in 30-40 years look at our 458s and think, "Wow - I want that car and the history!" If it was me, no. What I look for in a classic is partly rarity. Will this go up like a 308GTB/S? I don't think so. Like the 308 it is a very beautiful car, but it is produced in much greater numbers, hence there will be a lot more cars available. Currently we think the 458 is a stunning driver, and it is, for its time. But what in 25-35 years? Will people say, "Oh yeah, it's still fast and a classic at the same time" or will it be "It's a classic, but by todays standard, it's slow". How many who bought the 308 from new, thought it was slow? How many who look at it now thinks it is fast? We can always discuss the evolution of our cars, but fact is, it will keep on moving. Some day, our cars will be considered slow. Not by our current time, but by the time they then live in. So will the design and sound at that time be enough to keep up tha value of a mass produced car? I doubt it.

    Another thing is. Everyone is talking about the last N/A V8 Ferrari. How many here own a crystalball? C'mon fess up, I need lottery numbers anyway. Currently, at this time, forced induction with turbo chargers are the way things go. But what will happen in 15 years? New fuels, new intake designs, new combustion chambers, better injectors, cam-less engines, hybrid/KERS and what not. How can anyone say that Ferrari will never produce an N/A V8 engine again? Also, what about different ways of charging them. This could mean that the N/A sound is back, with some of the benefits from the turbos, with none of the drawbacks.

    I think it is waaay to early to say anything about what will happen to these cars in 15-25 years.
     
  25. abstamaria

    abstamaria F1 Rookie
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    #22 abstamaria, Feb 11, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2015
    I agree generally with what Noblesse, Caeruleus, and DK308said.

    The current issue of Sports Car Market notes that it will be 30 to 40 years before any of the new cars become "collectible." That is too long a time frame for me. I bought my new car for the experience and as a break from the older cars I have (the newest is a 1976). The new car is the last of the Montezemolo-era and, at least for now, of the NA Ferraris, but I don't expect it will have sustained financial value. However, I love it and plan to keep it a long time. That is a personal thing.

    As an aside, I've always had 911s, including a 993, but the move to a new 996 GT3 was breathtaking for me. The 993 felt so old after that. A friend said, "the best 911 is the newest 911." I believe he is right. But then I find it difficult to have an emotional relationship with 911s. That is just me. They are great cars.
     
  26. 4th_gear

    4th_gear F1 Rookie
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    I think the jury's not out yet. Until we hear and feel the differences between the 458 and 488 we can't say just how much of a departure the new car is from what are truly the endearing features of traditional Fcars.

    If the new car is faster but loses too much of the engaging quality of the older car (responsiveness, engine wail, reliability, pops and bangs) then I'm pretty sure the older car will maintain a special place until the factory either restores those qualities or introduces a newer formula like the LaF hybrid setup or perhaps even some sort of superlight construction.

    I think TT vs. NA is different from DCT vs. manual. Not every driver can drive a manual and not every manual driver can enjoy a manual but NA features are available to every driver and I'll bet very, very few misguided persons will say a TT sounds better than an NA. The NA sound is what Ferrari has been about for decades.

    Finally, we should note the LaF and the rest of the V12s are DCT but not TT. Ferrari views the implementation of the DCT differently from the TT.
     
  27. noone1

    noone1 F1 Rookie
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    All that matter is supply and demand. There will always be a **** ton of supply.

    Even if every single enthusiast decided to stay with the 458, it wouldn't matter because enthusiasts are only a small part of the market. Far more cars get sold to people who don't give a **** and want the latest. This creates more supply than there will ever be demand.
     
  28. shawminator

    shawminator Karting

    May 16, 2008
    206
    Austin
    I'm not sure I entirely agree that supply outstrips demand. Perhaps for most used Ferraris, yes (but not including limited production models like the 599 GTO or SA Aperta). However, as far new Ferraris go, demand exceeds supply (at least for the 458 and 458 Speciales). Ferrari manages the new car "supply versus demand" equation better than anyone.
     

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