How valuable is the last of a technology | Page 2 | FerrariChat

How valuable is the last of a technology

Discussion in '458 Italia/488/F8' started by MalibuGuy, Feb 10, 2015.

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  1. DK308

    DK308 F1 Rookie

    Aug 13, 2013
    2,738
    Europe, way north.
    Full Name:
    AB
    You have to remember that supply increases with every new model. When the 458 came about, it did not replace 20000+ 430's that were "binned". The number of junked Ferraris very different than the number of produced cars. Every time a new model comes out, while being the latest and greatest, it just adds to the numbers of cars out there. If you want a 458, there'll be a 458 for you. Nest time there will most likely be 20000+ 488's on top of those 458's, and on, and on, and on. The interesting thing now is. Was it, looking at it from a value and depreciation standpoint, a good idea to to what most did, and order a Rosso Corsa car? Or will those who ordered a different colour, like Giallo, Fiorano, Bianco, Azzuro Cali etc. be left with more valuable cars as they are less abundant than RC cars, and thus more valuable for those seeking something different?
     
  2. SciFrog

    SciFrog Formula Junior

    Apr 9, 2008
    566
    USA
    You cannot compare the change of manual to auto with the change of NA to turbo. With the gearbox you change the way you directly interact with the car. Possibly this is the biggest change since ABS... 993 last of the air cooled era? Yes but the 996 was a much better car with a much more modern interior... Personally I think cars in the 15 to 25 year old range come with big hassles and big trade offs compared to 3-5 year old cars. Cars older than 25-30 years are yet a whole other ballgame. The sweet spot is 3 to 10 year old cars depending on the brand. They all have modern build quality and great dynamic performance and age very well so far with reasonable repair costs.
     
  3. RBK

    RBK F1 Rookie

    Jul 27, 2006
    3,105
    Calif and Nev
    Full Name:
    Bob
    Few things are memorable, and fewer, valuable. I am reminded of my 1980 Porsche 930 (Turbo). Porsche introduced the first production turbo, in 1975, but did not import 930's to the U.S. in 1980. I brought mine in by ship, did what Department of Transportation and Environmental Protection Agency wanted, to get it in the U.S. and changed it back as it has been all this time. I just gave it to my son (who used to sit on my lap and "steer").

    It is easier to look back than forward and my experience owning virtually every marque over the years including Ferrari's,Porsche's, Mercedes, BMW's, Bentley's, Corvettes, Rolls Royce's, etc., is that each one was desirable at the time and then, as occurred when I "compared" the driving experience of the 1980 to the 458, I realized that time had passed. Still a great car but no longer enjoyable for me. My son is having a good time though.

    As many here agree, we want the next thing. Each successive generation begins anew and uses a different measuring stick. An example of the future is "virtual relationships". Imagine sitting at home with a headset and device that permits "feeling"? I wonder how many will still go to bars looking for a whomever? Best
     
  4. Ski Bum

    Ski Bum Formula 3

    Jun 19, 2012
    1,088
    There is an interesting skiing analogy here. It is virtually impossible to purchase anything other than a "shaped" ski these days. (A shaped ski has more sidecut, and is generally wider and shorter than the prior generations of "straight" skis.) When shaped skis first came on the market, you got the expected reaction from experienced skiers: shaped skis were "weird," too short, were for wimps and beginners, serious skiers wouldn't use them, etc. Over a period of several years, the shaped skis improved and just about every skier who tried them switched over (there are still some specialty mogul and jumping skis that are not shaped, but all recreational skiers and racers use shaped skis).

    I love my 458 Italia, and responsiveness and sound are key components of the experience. I don't know whether Ferrari will get the turbo on the 488 "right" at first in terms of responsiveness and sound, but I bet that Ferrari soon will get it right. Turbos are infinitely more responsive now than they were in the early days of Porsche 930s and Ferrari F40s, and it is difficult to believe that the remaining (far shorter) lag issues will prove intractable with a little more ingenuity and experience. At the point when the turbo issues are inevitably resolved, the NA cars will no longer seem special and collectible.
     
  5. Lukeylikey

    Lukeylikey F1 Rookie
    Silver Subscribed

    Mar 3, 2012
    3,053
    UK
    I don't think 30-40 years is correct. I just sold a CS for more than it cost new and it was 10 years old. It was more limited than a Scud or Spec but people have done the same with some Scuds too. I know this is the UK market, which is quite different to the US but the point is, it's only about demand and supply and arriving at the right set of circumstances to drive a price spike. Nothing to do with waiting for a set amount of time IMV
     
  6. Lukeylikey

    Lukeylikey F1 Rookie
    Silver Subscribed

    Mar 3, 2012
    3,053
    UK
    I'm a very keen skier, but with respect, this analogy does not work. People use new style skis because they give a level of performance that almost everyone prefers. There is no restriction on skis because of crash safety or pedestrian safety requirements negatively influencing their design and appearance, or legislation to reduce their noise emissions, or even any rules insisting that they emit less CO2!

    The car industry has developed cars to bring improvements but also against a backdrop of heavy regulation. This means that older cars can have a very different character to newer cars, despite being less capable in performance terms - slower but sometimes prettier, or nicer sounding, or lighter etc. The car also affects a much wider audience - everyone knows what a Ferrari, Lamborghinini, Porsche or Aston Martin is, far fewer people know about Atomic, Fischer, Kneissl and Kastle. So there is much wider interest and appreciation of the significance of the 'classic' and significant car than for the ski.

    This and numerous other things drives a fascination with cars and means that old ones are not irrelevant as is the case with skis.

    The 458 will be a classic car in the future and much loved. The lesser produced versions will see that interest develop much earlier.

    Also, production numbers and the relationship to future values is changing. Those low numbers required to drive value growth before will increase in the future because across the globe more people are becoming interested in exotic cars and able to afford them. Ferrari production has grown significantly over the last 30 years but Ferrari demand has been growing too. If, as I believe, this continues and Ferrari hold their volume at 7,000 as for the last few years, those cars will stay comparatively valuable in the face of added demand - especially in an era (could be for a generation?) of low interest rates. Obviously I'm talking mainly about what I see in the UK market but much of this applies elsewhere too.
     
  7. bobbyd

    bobbyd Formula Junior

    Nov 17, 2003
    722
    Maybe it's just that I'm "old fashioned" but:

    I still have my high end turntable of 25 years, along with a 1000 or so mint LP's, and I still love to listen to quality vinyl (I do not own an Ipod or similar device); my turntable is worth triple what I paid for it 25 years ago 'cause now people are recognizing it's "cool" and provides a top level listening experience.....

    I still have my 993 Carrera I bought new 18 years ago - IMO a beautiful and visceral car - and my 997 GT3RS bought 7 years ago. They both have nearly doubled in value the last 5 years......

    Awaiting delivery of my Speciale. IMO all 458's are beautiful, and the NA V8 powerplant is awesome; the Speciale is the best of them all. I do not care for turbo's, so for me it's this car or the V12's from now on. Value long term? Who knows but I would not be surprised if the Speciale, in particular, follows the above trends....
     
  8. Rcktrod

    Rcktrod F1 Rookie

    Dec 21, 2010
    3,946
    USA
    Well said. Quality now is quality later. A given year 100 point wine increase in value because they don't make anymore of them. The Speciale and Speciale Aperta will be the 458 variants to increase in value IMHO.
     
  9. 2GT

    2GT Formula 3

    Aug 25, 2008
    1,830
    Western NY
    Full Name:
    Fred
    I agree with two points made in earlier posts on this thread. The first is about the lack of a crystal ball. This is very important. I still remember TV coverage as the final of a limited series of "Bicentennial" Cadillac Eldorado convertibles came off the assembly line, wearing 1976 Michigan flag-festooned Bicentennial license plates reading: "LAST." The convertible was declared dead inl the U.S., due to lagging sales and stricter safety legislation. Regardless of the ensuing gloom and doom, convertible sales did not cease, and production numbers and model availability climbed. The second point concerns rarity, in the current context. Due to ever-increasing population numbers, and the expansion of exotic car markets to include third-world and other under-developed economies, I think that today's concept of rarity will be supplanted by a new regime, which will consider the larger market at the time, and also the presumed higher production numbers of the future. Who can say that even 10,000 units will never be surpassed as Ferrari's annual production limit? Some day, 50,000 units may be considered "limited production." However, as I am not in the fortune-telling busines, I'll just enjoy my non-rare F430 and 458 Spiders, and my "almost a Ferrari" 246 GT. I won't be around in forty years to worry about it, so I won't waste too much time thinking about the question at present. I will add one final point. When I bought my first Dino (which I still own) 39 years ago, the last thing on my mind was what it would be worth many years hence. Fred
     
  10. boxerman

    boxerman F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    May 27, 2004
    18,647
    FL
    Full Name:
    Sean
    The 997 GT3 is worth more than a 991 a supposedly faster car. the cayman GT4 which no one has driven yet is already 20 orders deep at delaers.

    faster on paper is not necessarily better when it comes to a sportscar, you need a whole experience, they are expreiental machines.

    The two times I drove a 458 the experience was meh, at anything below 9/10th. the motor was too loud and shouty with the baffles open, the sterein had no feel and it was just liek driving any car. The 458 is to me is the most beutiful ferrari in 30 years a true classic stunner, but somehow too bland to drive till you are just at the limit, where it thirls with sheer speed.

    The turbo 488 may be more exciting because of sheer grunt, to me the looks seem ruined, kinda like lambo did when they did the 25 anniv countach or ferrari with the 512M, sort of kit car like.

    Maybe though the lower redline of the 488 will allow for a stick again. That coupled with steering liek a speciale can make ferraris superlative to drive at all speeds, not just top speed paper specs. By all accounts the speciale is special to drive, so the 488 can be a great steer.

    But we all might considder why porche built the Gt4 cayman, its not because the 991 was greeted to universal aclaim by the fathful, and the cayman is way sold out before one even turns a wheel.

    I dont need a DD as a sportscar, I want a full experience, from sound to response to steerign feel, to feel throught he seat to havign my feet dance on pedals and my hands working controls, I want an immersive experience, ferrari seemm to be losing that, its not just the turbo or the paddles.

    There is tech that enhances the experience, gives betetr reliability, ease of use, more power and response, thats all good, then there is tech that layers itself beteen you and the action, makes it faster on apper, but its like sex with a condom, sorta the real thing except not.

    At a track i would much rather drive a F40 than a much faster newer ferrari, so turbos dont scare me, bring on a viceral car, enough witht he car even your bimbo can drive to the hairdresser, no matetr how fast the computer can make you go. Or offer two specs, driver spec with real steerign and a stick, and old fart spec fpor those thta just have to drive in traffic to the valet.

    Yes A GT4 is slower thana 991 Gt3, but exatly how many people are drivign a 991 Gt3 to the limit on track, and how durable is it at the track over the years. If you got ot he track, there is always a "faster" car out there, and all moderns are isnaely fast. Whats required now is a better drivign experience, somethign the tech has robbed. My guess is at the average track day we will see far more GT4's than 991 Gt3's and that for a weekend backroad blast the GT4 will be a far more immersive experience, ferrari needs to offer their GT4. Tirbo 488 or Na 458 well the 458 is already preety far removed from immersive so whats the loss.
     
  11. abstamaria

    abstamaria F1 Rookie

    Feb 11, 2006
    2,668
    Full Name:
    Andres
    Well, only time will tell. The important thing is that one can feel an attachment to the car (which I realize is now rare in owners of new Ferraris). That is probably the sentiment of a vintage car guy like me. I have only a handful of sports cars but they have been with me a long time, and I really still appreciate each one. I hope to feel that way about the new Italia.

    I have a mid-70s car, too, Sean. What amazes me is how different it is from the Italia. It is so good to have both. We're talking a 40-year gap.

    Andy
     
  12. Noblesse Oblige

    Noblesse Oblige F1 Veteran

    Nov 7, 2011
    6,114
    Three Places
    I had a used '57 'Vette in my 20s. It had little to recommend it except good power and a fine design of the period it was made, but jeesh.. the girls loved it. I kept it for 3 years. Now I am afraid to drive one. It would bring back too many memories but I know it would be a terrible car to drive. So nostalgia is sometimes best left where it lies.
     
  13. PhilNotHill

    PhilNotHill Two Time F1 World Champ
    Owner

    Jul 3, 2006
    27,855
    Aspen CO 81611
    Full Name:
    FelipeNotMassa
    458 Spider is the best car I have ever driven at any speed. Around town it sounds great. Top down. If there is a far more fun to drive in the mountains would love to check it out.
     
  14. f-458

    f-458 Rookie

    Jan 21, 2015
    30
    Los Angeles, CA
    Full Name:
    Emre
    Here is my 2 cents. When you look at the cars that appreciated significantly in the last 5 years, they all have something unique about them. They don't necessarily have the most power or most speed or most of anything for that matter but they provide unique driving experiences to their drivers in their own way which is hard to quantify or even predict in advance.

    Here are some examples:

    First generation BMW M3
    993 Porsche 911
    First generation Mercedes 190SL

    The new 488 will certainly be faster and more powerful but we don't really know if it will lose any highlights of the 458 in the process that might make 458 unique in a certain way. Only time will tell and it may take few more generations before we discover that 458 has some secret sauce. After all it took people over 20 years to appreciate the first generation M3 as much as a brand new one.
     
  15. abstamaria

    abstamaria F1 Rookie

    Feb 11, 2006
    2,668
    Full Name:
    Andres
    With respect, Emre, there is very little redeeming about a 190SL, in my opinion. It is poor driving experience and little going for it, in my view. I would not buy or keep one. But its big brother the 300SL is appreciating madly and dragging the 190SL along.

    All air-cooled 911s are being sucked upward, too; that is the strength of the Porsche market, a much bigger one than Ferrari's. My 993 wasn't a remarkable car, and the 996 that followed it was so much better. I would not go back to a 993. But it is the last air-cooled Porsche, so that accounts for much of its appeal.
     
  16. f-458

    f-458 Rookie

    Jan 21, 2015
    30
    Los Angeles, CA
    Full Name:
    Emre
    I'm not sure if we are saying anything that is conflicting with one-another. The uniqueness of the mentioned cars can be all different. I guess you can say that 190SL is unique because visually it looks so similar to its bigger brother for much less money. It may not drive like a 300SL and it sure looks gorgeous (well, one may disagree with this comment but majority of the buyers think that it is very beautiful since they are not buying for the power or handling).

    The 993 market has always been strong. As a matter of fact 993 market was strong way before the pricing of the rest of air-cooled 911s started to climb up like crazy in the last few years and I guess what makes 993 unique is being the last air-cooled engine. Who knows, let's hope that the same thing happens to the 458 as the last turboless V8:)
     
  17. abstamaria

    abstamaria F1 Rookie

    Feb 11, 2006
    2,668
    Full Name:
    Andres
    #42 abstamaria, Feb 14, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2015
    You could be right, Emre. I've never bought for investment and don't really understand the market. At the moment, I am quite infatuated with the Italia and am hoping that feeling will last a long time. :)

    Best,

    Andy
     
  18. CP Shrl

    CP Shrl Karting

    Feb 27, 2014
    85
    Dallas/Dubai
    Agreed completely.

    Take a look at the 16M... Nearly half a decade later (2009 production) and you can find them from 210-250K quite easily.

    Maybe a decade from now they will appreciate a bit but these will never be true collectors cars.
     
  19. PhilNotHill

    PhilNotHill Two Time F1 World Champ
    Owner

    Jul 3, 2006
    27,855
    Aspen CO 81611
    Full Name:
    FelipeNotMassa
    Friend had a 16M. Sold it and made a profit he says but not how much. Got new 458 Spider and says he likes it better in every way.

    I am Surprised the 16M has depreciated so much.
     

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