How will China's booming economy affect future USA allocations??

The United States needs to wake up. No country has taxed itself into prosparity. At every turn, the government has their hand in everyones wallet.

It's amazing isn't it.. some of these countries have tried every form of government under the sun and when they try full unbridled capitolism.. GOOD THINGS HAPPEN!

 

I think Ferrari will eventually have to increase capacity as world population increases the pop of people w $$$ also increases

So I think US allocation will remain the same while Ferrari builds more cars for Chinese millionaires & billionaires

Ferrari & Porsche have an enviable niche shared w very few others such as AM, Pagani, Saleen, Lambo & thats about it

Most manufacturers of ordinary cars are seriously suffering such as GM & Ford

Toyota seems to have a method to overcome the problems of the US manufacturers, probably because they never allowed the UAW in

 

The secret of Toyota's success is building cars people actually want to buy. Ford and GM ought to try it.

 

due to quality
or something else?

 

Quality/reliability is part of Toyota's success as is their ability to design cars for buyers not upper management.

 

i think a bit of quality, as well as the mechanical layout.

I surely cant think why anyone would want a front engined V8 slushmobile to get around if you could have something better.

I think euro car companies are also financially better off for the same reason, as they offer people better cars ie: BMW's or Merc's etc.

 

The UAW insists on having their companies pay out huge pensions to retired employees. When your pensions alone are in the 10s of 1,000s thats a huge drag on the business

The US auto makers & Many airlines are in the same boat on pensions which is why their profits are off

I agree w toyota making better quality cars but GM & Ford do make some VERY nice ones like the Vette Z06, Aston Martin, Ford GT etc. I'd take any of those over a stinking Toyota any day

 

I always find it interesting to hear businessmen talk about how horrible American cars are when the reason that American cars are bad is because the reasons Americans cars suck arnt because
1)the workers are horrible or lazy(Most Asian cars sold here are built here by Americans)
2)Unions(If the White collar guys wanted to get rid of the UAW or limit them, they could...Build a crap load of factories in Canada or Mexico...oh wait they do).
3)Styling...Asian cars arnt better looking
Our qwuality control sucks and why does it stink?

Because The American business philosophy. WHich always asks "can I do this for cheaper" (just repeat that over and over 10,000 times and you will get it). This Philosophy conflicts directly with the pursuit of Quality.
Simple proof of this
Which companies spend more time developing cars?
Ford spent 18 months on the Ford GT(40)
how much time did Ferrari spend on the 360 Modena, which the FOrd was supposed to compete with?
Also Note:
A flat tax WONT fix an economy that consistently makes inferior products...
A flat tax wont make people buy those products.
A flat tax wont, by itself fix the economy. Russia has a flat tax, anyone wanna move over there?
oh and a little extra salt for the Wound
Japan and Europe(which builds better cars) ALL have socialized medicine and higher taxes.

 

I think the attraction for foreign cars is different for different car mfrs. The elite class (Ferrari, Lambo, AM, etc...) are desireable for performance, styling, and prestige of ownership due to exclusivity.

The mainstream brands (Toyota, Honda, etc..) are desireable for some styling, mostly efficiency, ergonomics, and reliability. A Toyota door closing has a distinct smooth feel as opposed to a Chevy clack, which does not seem well thought out or well put together. They also seem to take care of customer concerns better. This is not true at my local Kia dealer, or my local Honda dealer which will push me away from those brands unless I hear they have fixed their attitudes. I think the foreign brands in general are slipping into American delaership territory in the service department.

The more common but expensive brands (Porsche, BMW, etc..) are popular for having great performance, styling, and mild exclusivity.
My $.02.

BT

 

Well dah... but 90% of the people can't afford an Aston Martin, or a Ford GT.

A few years ago one of my co-workers said that he think that GM will not be making car in 10 years, may be only Corvettes. I thought he was smoking something but he my actually be right.
The younger buyers would not touch an American car. Imagine a 20 years old kid who has $20,000 to buy a new car. Do you think he'll choose Chevy cobalt or a Honda Civic? And those are the buyers of the future.
GM and Ford are Doomed!!! (At least their domestic brands)

 

First, american styling in general sucks. When they do manage to pull something cool off like the 300, Solstice ,mustang, PT Cruiser or going back, the original Viper, they sell.

Second, "image"... American cars are perceived by the younger generation as 'old peoples' cars...there are exceptions. I was talking to my GF's 17 yr old brother yesterday and he was raving about Cadillac in general ( he just bought a used CTS) ...and yes Caddy has done a great job of shining up their image by making a connection to hip hop.

Pontiac on the other hand is a joke. No one who considers themselves having an ounce of 'cool' would be caught dead in a GTO.

Ford got it right with the new retro mustang and Chevy and Dodge are following suit... Some people may think the retro thing is stupid but it sells and thats whats important.

At the end of the day most cars are now bought with 'image' in mind..so the car companies need to connect with a certain audience. Japanese companies connect with the tuner crowd, Caddy and Chrysler are connecting with the hip hop crowd, etc...

Just my $.02 ... maybe im wrong

 

To get a little back on topic, as I see it it's already affected our supply sources. Last year we saw increased prices of raw materials ( particularly steel) in the 30% range. They ( my suppliers) are telling me it's not over yet and we may see another increase this year as China's demand for steel increases.

This directly affects our cost of goods as comsumers. Steel is not the only commodity that's affected.
It will only continue to get worse as China's economy grows.
Will

 

I have products manufactured in China currently as it would be impossible to compete otherwise BUT the question I keep asking myself is WHY in the world does the US only charge 5 to 15% average import duty while China charges 30% plus on stuff we try to export to China.

Is it coincidence that the US and Europe is sacrificing its middle class for the sake of Chinese economic growth? I think not. With the flick of a pen the China overgrowth could be balanced out and workplaces in the US/Europe could be safed.
I don't believe that this is simply stupidity on the part of the west. What is behind this strange development? The New world Order? Globalisation?

I can see from my trips to China that the entire country is engulfed in a huge bubble similar to the dot com bubble we had. If the US and Europe should be hit by a depression for some reason then China falls flat on its face. Someboody is pulling strings here and I don't think its the evil poiliticians; I always look at the people who profit the most from the current development and that are Banks! From everything that is going on in our world today there is only one huge winner, financially that is, and that are International Banks; Globalisation and warfare is the eternal wet dream for them.

BTW I think american cars feel like they fell out of a cereal box (Aston Martin Ford GT etc are obviously in a different category and extremely desireable)

Helmut

 

The time for Ford, GM and Chrysler is over. For decades they have built a sub par product and most with a lousy design so buyers didnt even want to be seen in them. The traditional BIG 3's problem with not selling cars, is that the foreign car manufacturers have grabbed over 70% of the auto buying market in the United States (I think that was the latest estimate).

That coupled with poor business decisions, family and pension plans from former employees, these companies are looking at nuts and bolts (THEY'RE SCREWED).

The United States government is going to end up bailing out Ford and GM with our tax money. Mark my words. They cant let the two largest corporations in the world publically go under. They are losing Trillions and it wont/cant be fixed anytime soon. Dealers are looking to dump franchises. Dealers are reaching into their own pockets to keep the doors open. Its bad.

One last thing, Chinese manufactured automobiles will be for sale here in the United States within 3 years. A lot of car for a very reasonable price tag.

 

last year Toyota overtook GM to be the # 1 auto manufacturer in the world

 

Didn't Ferrari say this year that they are going to increase production to meet increasing needs in Asia/China? I believe I read that somewhere, even if it's only by a hundred or two units.

 

Wouldnt doubt it, soon it will be by a few 1000 units. Once they build 20,000 430s my 512TR will start looking like a very rare bird

 

All this desire for the absolute cheepest thing is doing nothing but driving down our standard of living as a whole.
When WalMart NOT GM is the number 1 employer(which GM was all the way up until the 1990s) the country isnt showing good signs.
When a 9 dollar an hour job is more common than the 19 dollar job, whats that say about our economic health? When only 5% of the country makes &50,000.00+ per year.
When the average(not Mean) wage is stable at 24-22k(depends upon the source) a year for the past 10 years AND compared to a Poverty levelthat has grown from 11k -15k (over the same period), what does that say?

 

Yes, love my Toyota.

 

Chang '76 Predicts Fall of China's Communist Power
By Luke Hejnar

If the calculations of Gordon G. Chang J.D. '76 are correct, the Communist Party of China will fall from power within a decade.


Chang, the author of The Coming Collapse of China, presented his theory yesterday to a filled G-08 Uris Hall. The East Asia Program and the history department sponsored the lecture.


Chang said the collapse will happen because China won't be sufficiently prepared when it join the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the next few months.


Chang, who has lived and worked in China and Hong Kong for almost two decades as a partner in the international law firm of Baker and McKenzie as well as counsel to the American law firm Paul Weiss, believes that "most state-owned enterprises can't compete on their own."


The state government has postponed structural reform, which would have helped to protect state-owned enterprises when tariffs and other trade barriers fall.


However, "the WTO limits the government's ability to defer solutions to the future," Chang said, noting that China will have to follow the WTO rules and it will no longer be in sole control of its economy.


The state-owned banks, "which include among them some of the weakest financial institutions in the world," also aren't prepared for the increased competition, Chang said. Thus, he believes that after a few years many state-owned enterprises and some banks may fail.


"The shake out will be horrendous," Chang said.


Chang gave counter arguments to critics who say joining the WTO won't be bad because China will cheat, foreign investment will boom and the gross domestic product (GDP) will rise.


Chang predicts that it will be local government officials -- not senior Chinese leaders -- who will try to cheat to protect local industry. In the end, though, WTO rules will be enforced, according to Chang.


Furthermore, foreign investment won't boom because China suffers from overcapacity, as does most of the world. Instead of investing, Chang believes foreign companies will want to take advantage of the new open market by exporting to China.


Finally, Chang doesn't believe the GDP will grow. "After Sept. 11 we have seen the largest downturn in the world economy possibly since the great depression," Chang said. "Where will China export to?"


If the economy slips, the government will have a difficult time maintaining order among the peasants, who are restless and already protest in the tens of thousands, according to Chang.


"Today we see barehanded peasants take on armed forces," Chang said.


The government's ability to maintain order will be complicated because beginning next year all the top government posts will change.


"When the challenges to China will be the greatest, the regime will be the weakest," Chang said. Then, "all it takes to start a prairie fire is just a single spark."


The lecture was attended by students, historians and economists.


"I'm not in politics," said audience member Bill Wykoff. "I just came because of general interest."


David Maisel '68 found the lecture "provocative and stimulating."


"[Chang] brings up arguments that you might not hear in the major news venues," Maisel said.


"It makes some people think and question ideas. It's very valuable," he added.

 

And start selling them in China!!!

 

That's an interesting article/lecture.
The main reason why China opened up to the world market was because of a potential revolution by the overwhelming amount of peasants (800million migrant workers!). China HAS to generate all the money in the world (almost literally) in order to keep its people from revolting;
My feeling tells me that the transition from governemnt owned to private enterprise is not the biggest problem as most factories are not Government owned by now. I feel that the communist party will transform or be overtaken and along with that international banks will be taking over China pumping money into the country with loans for new businesses and to save existing ones. Income tax laws will be enforced much more like it is here in the US/Europe, a master-slave relationship, extremely strict which in turn will ensure the banks that they will receive the interest payments on their loans.

You mustn't forget that we think that China has a very opressive regime but in reality when it comes to law enforcment things are very "relative" to say the least. Local government versus Federal government, friends and families who know people who make phonecalls or the necessary little bribe .....

We are thinking that we are living in such a free country while in reality we are used to a very oppressive force called the federal government / Federal Reserve.
The only reason why the US has such an enormous spending power is because the banks who are issuing the loans to the Federal Gov. are VERY well protected by the law enforcement making sure that Income taxes are being paid, (who is not afraid of a Tax audit?) Income tax money in the US translates into interest payments for money owed by the government.

So as soon as the Communist government looses control over the chinese public, the banks will gain control in the same unbridled way as they are doing in the west.
After that will be more economic dabble as we see it in the west currently, where nobody really knows what's going on but as long as there is food on the table nobody complains.

Sorry for the long post but all this economic BS really pisses me off.
Helmut

 

Hi, there was actually a story in this Tuesday's Shangai Daily where this issue was raised. I can not quite recall the details exactly, but I believe they were interviewing the Ferrari global marketing manager. He stated that although China is leap-frogging other countries on its way to soon becoming the 3rd (or was it 6th?) largest market for Ferrari, they have no intension of increasing production so as to retain brand exclusivity. As I see it, someones going to miss out.

He also mentioned that they do not put any marketing effort into the China market. And that they are now focusing on teaching the owners how to safely drive their, anyone who has been here will well know, a chinese driver in a 100hp shopping trolley is scary enough let alone a 360/430 (no racist tone intended!).

Cheers, Neil

 

I dont believe that. F just had two 612s on a rally through China, if thats not marketing I dont know what is. Hong Kong & SHanghai are 2 huge potential markets. They would be foolish not to sell more cars there.
I predict they WILL increase production for China