News

How will the art market meltdown affect collector Ferrari cars?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by Platini 289, Feb 7, 2016.

  1. 5000gt

    5000gt Karting

    Oct 8, 2015
    84
    Which Enzo Era ferrari are you referring to? Maybe I am wrong but I don't see any on the link you provided.
     
  2. subirg

    subirg F1 Rookie

    Dec 19, 2003
    3,581
    Cheshire
    You are correct - my mistake. I meant Fiat era… (308/TR/512BB/512TR/348s)
     
  3. John B

    John B Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    May 27, 2003
    1,544
    NJ
    275 GTB/4's trading at $71 / oz. I Love it!! :)
     
  4. subirg

    subirg F1 Rookie

    Dec 19, 2003
    3,581
    Cheshire
    You are correct - my mistake. I meant Fiat era… (308/TR/512BB/512TR/348s)
     
  5. 166&456

    166&456 Formula 3

    Jul 13, 2010
    1,720
    Amsterdam
    Indeed. But I am happy to see all the 456's sold, as well as a 1990 Range Rover for over 21k, wow.
     
  6. roma1280

    roma1280 F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    May 2, 2010
    3,279
    NYC, PalmBeach, Roma
    Full Name:
    Mark
  7. Tenney

    Tenney F1 Rookie
    Consultant

    Feb 21, 2001
    3,497
  8. ggjjr

    ggjjr Formula Junior

    Nov 11, 2003
    828
    Detroit
    Full Name:
    George
    But that was the height of the bubble. Makes one wonder.

    George
     
  9. energy88

    energy88 F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 21, 2012
    11,966
    Fredericksburg, VA & Sarasota, FL
    Full Name:
    John
    What would be interesting is if John_B could present his data in real (inflation-adjusted) terms better illustrating the giant "U" between the two peaks and also better defining the bottom of the "U" as a likely price floor. Not trying to cause you work John, but your analysis has raised an interesting point when looking at the big picture in both "nominal" and "real" terms.
     
  10. John B

    John B Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    May 27, 2003
    1,544
    NJ
    #210 John B, Jun 7, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 7, 2017
    Good idea.
    Below are the series inflation-adjusted to 5/2016 prices using CPI.
    Interestingly, the current peaks in both 275 GTB/4's and gold are very close to the inflation-adjusted peaks.
    Image Unavailable, Please Login
     
  11. energy88

    energy88 F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 21, 2012
    11,966
    Fredericksburg, VA & Sarasota, FL
    Full Name:
    John
    A bit of tea-leaf reading from John_Bs "real" valuation graph:

    * Just eyeballing the base of the Gold "U" occurring about 1996, it appears that Gold has a minimum long term value of no less than $500 per ounce. The height of the Gold "U" from the base to highest point of the "U" is about 3.6 times the value of the base (1,800/500 = 3.6).
    * Just eyeballing the base of the 275 GTB/4 "U" occurring about 2003, it appears that the 275 GTB/4 has a minimum long term value of no less than $500,000. The height of the 275 GTB/4 "U" from the base to highest point of the "U" is about 7 times the value of the base (3,500,000/500,000 = 7).
    * Thus, the pricing volatility of a 275 GTB/4 is about double that of gold (7.0/3.6 = 1.9).

    Just my 2 cents to make sense of the performance of Classic Cars versus other assets.
     
  12. 166&456

    166&456 Formula 3

    Jul 13, 2010
    1,720
    Amsterdam
    John, that depends to a large degree also the amount of cars sold. How many cars were sold at the early peak and how many now? Imho, averages over a year or so are far more relevant than a single sale at a peak high or low as it also averages out most of the excesses.
     
  13. energy88

    energy88 F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 21, 2012
    11,966
    Fredericksburg, VA & Sarasota, FL
    Full Name:
    John
    Yes, the implied assumption in this analysis is that the same amount of cars were sold for each data point. Your observation also likely applies when comparing one model car versus another car or against some equivalent quantity of a commodity (apples to oranges) to get an assessment of price volatility.
     

Share This Page