I find it amusing many are predicting | FerrariChat

I find it amusing many are predicting

Discussion in 'Ferrari Discussion (not model specific)' started by nberry, Jan 27, 2004.

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  1. nberry

    nberry Formula Junior

    Nov 1, 2003
    Armageddon with respect to 360 prices. The reality is as of Feb.16th the 360 coupe will increase by $7500 and $9500 for the Spider. What this will mean is prices on used 360's will increase as well.

    We are not talking about a mass produced vehicle. Yes it is 5 years old but consider only 1350 Ferrari's are sold in the US each year. Of that number about 900 are 360's. The demand will always exceed the supply.

    Regarding the Gallardo, I have no doubt it is a fine sport car. However it will suffer as a result of its perceived inferiority to the Murci big brother. This is very similar to what happened to Boxster sales after its initial success. It is now consider something less than a Porsche and sales have fallen dramatically despite excellent reviews of the car.:)
  2. Prancing_Horse

    Prancing_Horse Formula Junior

    Dec 23, 2003
    Full Name:
  3. Juice It

    Juice It F1 Rookie

    Sep 22, 2002
    Maryland (DC Suburb)
    Full Name:
    If you think the prices on the used cars will rise because the price of new ones are going up you are dreaming! Try using that line when you are selling a used one.
  4. Hubert

    Hubert F1 Rookie

    Jan 3, 2002
    The Left Coast

    But... but... Allan said so.
  5. enjoythemusic

    enjoythemusic F1 World Champ

    Apr 20, 2002
    Full Name:
    Used prices will not go up. There are a model year difference. it is NOT like some other luxury good items that do not reply on a date of birth per se. These "birthless" items are along the lines of Patek Philippe, Louis Vuitton, etc where resale relies more of condition/documentation.

    Anyone buying a "run of the mill" 360 thinking it will suddenly appreciate due to price increase of newer models is very much mistaken. Eventually the 360 will be akin to today's 3x8 IMHO.

    Enjoy the Drive,

    Steven R. Rochlin
  6. MARQ

    MARQ Formula 3

    Feb 9, 2002
    East Coast US
    Full Name:
  7. johnw

    johnw Formula Junior

    Jun 19, 2002
    Full Name:
    go to a dealer and see what they will give you for your 360. the prices are already tanking. people are asking stupid prices and NOT getting them.
  8. Hubert

    Hubert F1 Rookie

    Jan 3, 2002
    The Left Coast
    Yeah, but the prices have been "stupid" since the start. Although I don't forsee a meteoric tumble in resale prices, I do think the market is adjusting, considerably. However, to those that paid/speculated on these cars (especially at the height of the flurry) this adjustment may just as well be meteoric as if they bought high, they'll surely be selling low (in relative terms).
    Also, since getting one of these cars new, at MSRP, is still difficult (but allegedly not imposible viz a vie Allan's cunning) there will always be a degree of speculation on buying a car off the floor, from a dealer; however, it surely is not unreasonable to suggest that the delta b/w MSRP and asking price may shrink, marketedly, in the very near future.
    I think it's amusing that people get so hysterical, and miss the fact that the asking prices surrounding these cars have been floating on purported fantasy #'s for a long, long time; therefore, it's not entirly shocking that the bubbles are bursting.
    All this, eventually, exhibit a tendency toward equilibrium.
  9. GearHead

    GearHead Karting

    Jan 3, 2004
    They all end up being $35,000-$45,000 cars sooner or later.
  10. Hubert

    Hubert F1 Rookie

    Jan 3, 2002
    The Left Coast
    Yeah, but it'll take a long time. Anyone care to graph the decay curve of a comprable model, say, the 328? Using today's dollar? Doody, you out there?
  11. Ken

    Ken F1 World Champ

    Oct 19, 2001
    Arlington Heights IL
    Full Name:
  12. Doody

    Doody F1 Veteran

    Nov 16, 2001
    MA USA
    Full Name:
    Mr. Doody
    oh, so now i'm the board's fetch-and-carry data-monkey?


  13. Doody

    Doody F1 Veteran

    Nov 16, 2001
    MA USA
    Full Name:
    Mr. Doody

    this is all i have for you - inflation numbers from the CPI. you'll have to do the rest yourself. it's to 2002, so you'll have to figure out 2003.

    i did this analysis in question for 550s and 512TRs before i bought my 550. i wanted to try to model the depreciation curve on inflation-adjusted dollars. i don't know why - it's a stupid thing to do! :)

    1970 0.215
    1971 0.225
    1972 0.232
    1973 0.246
    1974 0.273
    1975 0.298
    1976 0.316
    1977 0.336
    1978 0.362
    1979 0.403
    1980 0.457
    1981 0.504
    1982 0.535
    1983 0.552
    1984 0.576
    1985 0.597
    1986 0.608
    1987 0.630
    1988 0.656
    1989 0.688
    1990 0.725
    1991 0.755
    1992 0.778
    1993 0.801
    1994 0.822
    1995 0.845
    1996 0.870
    1997 0.890
    1998 0.904
    1999 0.924
    2000 0.955
    2001 0.982
    2002 1.000

    i cannot vouch for the source of these numbers. it's been too long to remember from where on the net i got the spreadsheet. it's titled "CPI Conversion factors 1800 to est. 2012, in dollars of 2002 (estimated)" and was created by some radical dude by the name of "Robert C. Sahr" according to the document properties.

    use it at your own risk. at the end of the day cars are bad investments 99.9999999999% of the time.

  14. Hubert

    Hubert F1 Rookie

    Jan 3, 2002
    The Left Coast
    Well... I wasn't going to say it... but...
    All in jest, of course, but you've certanly displayed a penchant for "data collection and interpertation." (Your 550 service costs spreadsheets were superb.)
  15. TigerAce

    TigerAce Formula 3

    May 29, 2003
    Dallas, TX
    Full Name:
    Yoshi Ace
    Interesting what people are saying here. "Demand exceeds supply " seems not really true to me, as I can see 360 for sale in dealers & Ferrari sales ads.

    I like 360 very much, my second favorite in 8 cylinder cars. But it is mass produced model for Ferrari compared with other cars, so my guess is that it will depreciate more in percentage-wise (to original sales price).

    Anyway, compared with other cars, Ferrari doesn't depreciate much. I lost over $20K (about 40%) in 4 years span for my previous Vette.

    This is wishiful thinking as I eventually want 360 for my collection, the price of used previous models won't go up!

    Yoshi Ace
  16. scott63

    scott63 Formula Junior

    Nov 1, 2003
  17. GaryReed

    GaryReed F1 Rookie

    Feb 9, 2002
    Full Name:
    Oh really? If 360s are so popular and in such high demand, how come there are MORE THAN 200+ for sale right now on Dupont Registry??

    It's a buyers market for 360s right now, especially the Berlinettas.

    When the new replacement model comes out in 2005, prices are really going to head south even faster.
  18. scott63

    scott63 Formula Junior

    Nov 1, 2003
    The same can be said for any car and most of the sellers of the cars listed on Dupont are asking way more than what they paid for the cars when new. The Ferrari market is a lot different than any other automotive market. When 355's came out, people paid $200K for the car. When 360's came out, a few crazy people paid over $300K for the car just to get it first.. Authorized dealers will tell you (as well as many on the forum who experienced it), that when a new model is introduced, you can't get the cars and this drives up the price of the previous models because those that can't get the new model usually buy in to the marque at the older model to get into the game). This happened with TR's and 355's. Most dealers are predicting it to happen with the 360 as well. It is a temporary bubble though...

    BTW... My family has been in the car business for 30 years so I do have some real world experience to draw from....

    I was also referring to new 360's not used. When any Ferrari is out of warranty, the prices drops dramatically....
  19. Scotty

    Scotty F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    Oct 31, 2003
    Full Name:
    Scotty Ferrari
    You know, I'm not sure 360 prices are swirling down the toilet. Yes, the waiting lists for new Berlinettas are being whittled down, and yes, it doesn't really make sense to flip a new one, as they aren't commanding much over a 5K sticker premium (This from my local Ferrari dealer). Another interesting note is that Ferrari SPA apparently contacted all U.S. dealers to get a handle on the existing waiting lists. According to my dealer, Ferrari will adjust (increase production) in an attempt to be sure, over the next 18 months or so, that existing waiting lists spots are supplied with vehicles.

    History may not be a good place to look, but it may provide a some perspective. When the 360 came out, 355 asking prices trended up (at least asking prices in the FML did). There have been previous threads documenting this as well. People get all hot and bothered over the new model, and thus interests increases in the most recently released previous model. Plus, there are few better ways to worm your way onto a waiting list than buying a used car from a dealer. Now, there are certainly a few more 360 competitors than there were in 1999, and the economy, while worse, hasn't seemed to effect high end luxury goods as significantly.

    Still, I would think 360 prices would gradually decline until details of the replacement come out, at which point in time I think they will stabilize, and then we may see the "new model" bump.

    Just one guys opinion.
  20. Ken

    Ken F1 World Champ

    Oct 19, 2001
    Arlington Heights IL
    Full Name:
    That's my point. There is never a shortage of any car, Just a shortage AT A PRICE. If I want to pay MSRP for a new 360, well forget it. But that's not due to a shortage of cars. There are plenty of new 360's I can buy but I have to pay up. If there were no buyers, there wouldn't be a surplus unless the price were zero. Like I said: every car sold is bought. The price keeps the equilibrium.

  21. Carnut

    Carnut F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    Nov 3, 2003
    Gladwyne PA
    Full Name:
    Being fairly new to Ferrari ownership (I have had 2 360's in the last couple of years the newest being my 04 spider) I find it very interesting that more of the posts I read here have to do with the price of the car and what is might be worth a some future time (which no one hear really knows for sure) than how enjoyable it is to own and drive the car.

    Many years ago I was a sales trainer, I used to tell the people I trained, that a good deal is merely a state of mind. Case in point I buy alot of cars, I beat up Porsche, BMW, and Mercedes dealers all the time, always getting the price I want and that being well below sticker, imagine my surprise when in my mind waiting two and half years and paying sticker for a car would be a good deal in my mind.

    My point, I could care less what the car will be worh, I just wish it would stop snowing here so I could drive it. I had 37 Porsches before I even drove my first Ferrari, I still remember that day and the smile that just would not go away, to me that is the best deal you can get.
  22. rodsky

    rodsky Formula 3

    Mar 24, 2003
    Los Angeles
    Well said - totally agree.
  23. Wildwarrior

    Wildwarrior Formula Junior

    Mar 26, 2003
    Full Name:
    Glen Winters
    I couldn't have said it better my self!
  24. nberry

    nberry Formula Junior

    Nov 1, 2003
    Right on!!! :D
  25. Willis360

    Willis360 F1 Rookie

    Aug 4, 2001
    Redmond, WA
    Full Name:
    Willis H

    Totally agree. I got the 360 for DRIVING and don't really care about how much it will fetch later. There's way more discussions about value and price predictions than those about enjoying the 360. It's a shame because it's an excellent car.

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