Imola... thoughts and ruminations

Well, I've been away because it's taken me (and my good friend) a while to see the races. Finally watched Bahrain on Friday night.

As for people saying this season is as boring as the past... maybe it's me but I think your crazy. The TV coverage seems to be much better this year. The directors seem to be giving us many more of the mid pack battles that take place. Maybe it's because they don't feel the need to keep the camera on the lead car because it's not a Ferrari. Or, maybe Bernie got wise and made a decree to do so. Either way I've been enjoying the races.

Enough about me, on to Imola:

I'd said before the first race that Toyota looked strong. I was very surprised to see how strong they actually were. They've been working on Aero and Engine since the middle of last season and it looks to have paid off. This weekend at Imola should be a good race. The team is still fighting for it’s life though. Toyota’s spending a huge amount of money and they’re now getting some rewards. Even with two podium finishes if they don’t keep it up I’d say the team might still get the axe at the end of the season. The question is can Toyota develop their Aero faster than Renault can develop their Engine? If they can Renault might be in trouble in the middle of the season.

I think BAR will be back to form for this race with new Aero bits. Sato will be the faster of the two by a whisker’s hair. He’s got something to prove and to make up for from the past couple of races.

Toyota will have problems with the kerbs there as they always have. But, their new found Aero efficiency (low drag/downforce) and engine (I’d bet the most powerful on the grid) should help to make up for it.

Renault has the best package out there. I’d say second best engine, the best aero, and best mechanical grip as seen by the condition of their tires at the end of the race. Fernando’s on pole for this one again.

MS in the Ferrari will give him a run for pole though. Ferrari’s development has always been focused on Aero and specifically on what is know as “transient” aerodynamics or how the car’s aero behaves in pitch and yaw. This expertise in the past has given Ferrari a leg up on circuits such as Imola when the car has to run over the curbs. I’m assuming a lot of development has been done on the 2005 in this area, more than the other teams, and will help close the gap. Once the race is going though I don’t think the cars will last. Either mechanically or in terms of working their tires properly. MS will be fighting in the closing stages with no rear tires and possibly heavily grained fronts. If his car makes it to the end of the race he should be in the top five with a drive worthy of his WC titles.

I’ll leave predictions of other teams to everyone else.

One of the other things I’ve enjoyed with the new finishing positions has been Fernando and Jarno during the post race interview. Not their interviews but when the interview’s cut to the third place person. At Malaysia when they were talking to Nick Heidfield the director went to a three man shot and I swear to God Fernando and Jarno were caring on like Groucho and Harpo. They both looked the part too! During the Bahrain post interview we didn’t get that same shot but I was wondering if they were up to the same. I was disappointed when Jarno got kicked out of Renault last year but when I saw him at the Japanese GP I knew Toyota would be fast this year. It’s nice to see that he and Jarno still get along and having fun with both having good fortunes at their perspective teams.

I think we might be in for a Barn Burner of a season here. It’ll take a bit of time before the teams get a real handle on their cars as Renault have but once they do it’ll be anyone’s race.

This is going to get me flamed but, Renault has always been the best at designing and reinventing Formula One Engines. They brought in the Turbo and revolutionized the sport. They brought in Air Actuated Valves, again revolutionizing the sport. And did they also bring in the V-10? Someone please give us the proper info on that, it may have been Honda… My point is if Renault has any trump card sitting in it’s back pocket it’s their Engine department. If they can find more power than the others with their current chassis all my predictions are wrong and it’s game over for all the others. I have a feeling Toyota’s Engine department will consistently do better though and feel the others will find gains to close the gaps. Then again it’s been a while since Renault’s sprung a major technical innovation to the sport. History is cyclical they might be due for something big.

I’m also wondering when the teams are going to wise up and start putting two cars in the wind tunnel. Developing your aero package with clean air flow is the best approach for developing the most efficient car in terms of drag and downforce. But, no one works on their cars set up for when it matters most. That is when it’s stuck back behind another car. By doing some testing and development of how the car’s downforce and drag behaves behind another car could yield huge benefits on the track. Currently teams work to get a car working so a driver can close the gap between it and another car then it’s all up to the driver. And as we all know the driver that’s stuck behind has a distinct disadvantage from not having anywhere near as much downforce to work with. A car that can create some downforce in this aerodynamic nether world or give better balance would be a drivers dream. At the moment a car with superior mechanical grip has an advantage in this area if aerodynamic loss to both front and rear wings are equal. But, because the front wing will always loose downforce before the rear in these situations this isn’t always the case. At some tracks like the Hungaroring or Monaco the performance advantage would be worth multiple finish places up the grid than if you didn’t have it.

If Ferrari can work on Transient Aerodynamic properties I’d tend to think that they (as well as others) could work on what I’ll call Inter-Flow (Interconnected Flow) Aerodynamics. I would think Sauber with their new Super Computer could work these kinds of simulations better than anyone else at the moment.

Formula 1 has always been about reaching the optimal compromise. I suppose you need to take a look at how much of a race your car spends fighting behind another and how much it spends in open clean air. When you have that you can then see if a Inter-Flow set up will be that much of a detriment to the clean air flow lap times and make your decision.