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Impact of hybrid/electrics on used ferraris and other supercars...

Discussion in 'Ferrari Discussion (not model specific)' started by juicert, Mar 30, 2004.

  1. juicert

    juicert Rookie

    Mar 17, 2004
    46
    I had a thought today, and would appreciate the comments of the smart folks here on it...

    Hybrid and electric cars are fairly primitive and uninteresting concerns these days, primarily due to the fact that they are just slapping electric motors in place, or in conjunction with internal combustion (IC) engines. They are very low performance, and are strictly in economy cars (although the new hybrid Lexus RX300 SUV coming out is a step in the right direction...)

    However, in the future, I see these cars going in the direction that high end dump trucks and industrial equipment have been at for decades - a central power plant providing electrical current to four individual electric motors - one on each wheel. Because electric motors provide an incredible amount of torque vs. IC engines, and because that torque is _instantaneous_ (and continuous, I believe...), we will be looking at low cost cars that are a light year ahead of the fastest IC supercars being sold today.

    Before we bog down in details, let me admit that I know very well that this is not coming tomorrow, and that important advances need to be made in battery technology, and that a whole new paradigm of drivetrain design and auto manufacturing in general need to created before this will occur.

    Nevertheless, it _is_ coming.

    So, presumably when this happens, supercar manufacturers will follow suit - I don't really think this is a controversial point, and I don't mind the fact that at some point in the future instead of comparing the loudness of our exhaust notes, we will be competing in terms of how _silent_ our cars can be made (PC tinkerers are already dick-sizing based on decibals...) ... so let's just assume that the supercar manufacturers follow suit, because they would be foolish not to.

    The big question I have is this: what happens to the value of the last 3-4 generations of a particular IC supercar line as soon as the above becomes a reality ? My prediction is that their value will sink rapidly and drastically. Older lines will maintain their value due to their rarity and value as collectibles, etc. ... but what about the preceeding ten years worth of models ?

    For instance, let's say the above scenario takes place _tomorrow_ - the last three cars in the low-end ferrari range are the 360, the 355, and the 348. They aren't old enough or rare enough to be considered serious collector pieces ... and they would, overnight, become technological relics unable to compete with even low end sports cars. So my prediction is their resale value would plummet. Same story if this happens 8 years from now - the last four cars would be the 460 (?), the 420 (?), the 360 and the 355 - then those would be the later model cars to plummet. You get the idea.

    Comments ? Please - any comments on any of the above, especially the part where I _assume_ that supercar manufacturers would adopt new technology like I described, and the conclusion I made at the end ... would your knowledge of an impending paradigm shift in the auto industry make you hesitant to buy a late model IC supercar ?
     
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  3. Auraraptor

    Auraraptor F1 World Champ
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    The same that has happened with 328s. they stay constant at their values despite being slower then most.
     
  4. nzo4re

    nzo4re Karting

    Mar 13, 2003
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    Intriguing...More later, as I think on this.
     
  5. RAYMAN

    RAYMAN Formula Junior
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    I hope I will be dead before hybrid Ferraris hit the road!
     
  6. juicert

    juicert Rookie

    Mar 17, 2004
    46
    Well, I don't think there will ever be _hybrid_ supercars, but I do think there will be electric supercars, as I described in my original post.

    Why would you not like this ? The performance and handling you could get with four individually driven electric motors would be god-like compared to current technology ... the car would be near silent, with zero emissions.

    What's not to like ? :)
     
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  8. mk e

    mk e F1 World Champ

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    It will have no effect. Hybrids are for economy. Sports cars are for performance, so put your mind at ease.
     
  9. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

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    Have you ever heard a flat 12 Ferrari with a Tubi at redline ? No Hybrid will replace that. Part of the allure of a supercar is precisely bcus its SO in your face anti PC. The sound, the extroverted body, the superfluous hp in Huge gobs, the ludicrous speed of these machines is exactly what makes them so attractive.

    I love tooling through SoBe at 30 or so, just where the 4 valves start kicking in in 1st gear & the exhaust starts to sound nice.

    I'm all for hybrid sportscars but I doubt any of them will be considerd Supercars anytime soon & Thats the differance. A nice Toyota Lexus hybrid sportscar will be a sports car. My 512TR is a Super Exotic, BIG difference :)
     
  10. zjpj

    zjpj F1 Veteran

    Nov 4, 2003
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    Not if 25 years down the line it's illegal to import any new gasoline powered car into the U.S.
     
  11. Mitch Alsup

    Mitch Alsup F1 Veteran

    Nov 4, 2003
    7,667
    The TQ curve of a typical electric motor starts with high levels of TQ at zero RPMs and goes down steadily as the inductive effect of comutation of field coils takes hold. For all intents and purposes, the TQ curve starts at Peak TQ @ 0 RPMs and runs in a straight line to 0 TQ at max RPMs. This is great for getting off the line, and cruising down the road at constant speed. It is not so great for acclerating out of corners with the tail hung out.

    Weight is the enemy, and at some point, the peak power of the engine is required. So for racing purposes (or high performance applications), you need an engine with X HP, and electric motors of X HP in total. Assuming the generator comes without any weight whatsoever, you are still behind in the weight department, and we haven't added batteries for storage of energy bwtween when the engine makes it and the motors deliver it to the tires.

    Probably go up in value!

    My answer will be similar to the NRA's "you can take my gun when you pry my cold dead fingers off of it".

    For the performance application, it will never happen.
     
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  13. Sin

    Sin Karting

    Nov 28, 2003
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    An electric vehicle will never sound like 12 cylinders at 7000 rpm :)
     
  14. F40Lover

    F40Lover Karting

    Mar 28, 2004
    203
    You can not replace the thrill of 400HP with -----with ---- with---- gasp --- choking ---- hybird cars.

    I can hear it all now:

    "Officer I know it is a crime to forget to unplug the cord and drag it along the hiway but my mind hasn't worked right since we stopped breathing gasoline fumes."

    The only hybird Ferrari would be where you replace the V8 with V12!!!
     
  15. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

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    a Ferrari 5.0 flat 12 at 7,000 rpm is like a Beethoven Symphony :) the silent hum of an electric motor will never replace either
     
  16. juicert

    juicert Rookie

    Mar 17, 2004
    46
     
  17. Mitch Alsup

    Mitch Alsup F1 Veteran

    Nov 4, 2003
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    1.0 sec 0-100 Km/hr is 2.75 Gs of acceleration. There are NO tires* that can transmit this amount of force in this end of the speed range where aerodynamics does not apply. Saying that there are is not credible. This is independent of how power is delivered to the wheels.

    *outside of pure drag racing tires, after being heated with a good burnout.
     
  18. juicert

    juicert Rookie

    Mar 17, 2004
    46
    that's an interesting point that I had not thought of ... the first thing that comes to mind is kevlar, but that is just being silly.

    What does that tuned corvette that keeps getting sub-2 second 0-100km/h times have for tires ?
     
  19. kizdan

    kizdan F1 Veteran

    Dec 31, 2003
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    I don't believe hybrids are the future at all. I think we will see hydrogen powered cars become the norm. You can use the same basic internal combustion motor design, and fairly easily convert it run on hydrogen power. The problem right now is the storage of this highly combustable fuel, both in the car itself, and at refuelling stations. The exhaust coming out of the back of the car is simply water.

    I have read about hydrogen converted BMW 7-series being tested. They drive almost exactly the same way as their gasoline driven counter parts.

    It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me to completely redesign the car around hybrid technology, when you can work on hydrogen storage and basically keep people in the cars that they are already used to.

    Making technology work well enough to offer it to the public is one thing, public acceptance is entirely another matter. I think the general public will be much more accepting of hydrogen over hybrids.
     
  20. mk e

    mk e F1 World Champ

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    The real problem with performance electric cars is the electric part. Where do you get enough electricity to get any range or performance out of it??? The little economy hybrids are already carrying about 600 lbs of batteries and running a generator (with an IC engine). Where do you get more to run a 500 or 1000 hp electric motor?? Add another 2000 lbs of batteries?

    The other more important point that is generally not well reported is that "life to death" or "construction to recycle" hybrid cars consume about 20% more energy than a similar size gasoline car. This is seen, but ignored in the price to buy and operate data. Hybrids cost about 50% more to buy because all the extra parts that go into them require energy to make. SO the net effect on the environment is negative with hybrid or fuel cell cars. The one thing they do well is move the pollution from the point of operation to the point of manufacture. So the city it's driven in will be cleaner, but the city that makes them will get much dirtier. If we actually cared about the environment and saving fuel, we would all buy diesels, they do actually save energy. That is why all commercial equipment is diesel powered and most cars in Europe. Diesels save about 20% over a gas car, hybrids consume about 20% more.

    I wouldn’t be to concerned
     
  21. Mitch Alsup

    Mitch Alsup F1 Veteran

    Nov 4, 2003
    7,667
    This points out one of my pet peves:

    To a non-drag racer, sub-2 means 1.99 or less;
    To a drag-racer, sub-2 means 2.99 or less. What they really mean is 'in' the 2s NOT sub-2s!

    In any event, 1 Gs for 2.75 seconds will leave you at 60 MPH; 1Gs for 9.05 seconds will deliver a 1/4 miles at 194 MPH.

    Street tires can deliver 1.0 Gs of acceleration in (basically) any direction
    R-compound tires can deliver about 1.25 Gs of acceleration
    Racing tires can deliver 1.6 Gs of acceleration

    And now back to our regular scheduled debate.

    Top motorcycle riders on top streetable motorbikes can and do dip into the 2.8 range for 0-60, and dip into the 9.8-9.9 second 1/4 miles at 140-odd MPH. The same motorcycle on racing slicks can do 0-60 in 2.4 second range if the rider can keep the front tire on the ground.

    Slow motorcycles can dip into the 3.3-3.6 range; personally, I find these things fast enough.

    The generator for 400-500 HP will weigh in just about what a transmission for a 400-500 HP car will weigh. SO consider it free. Now all you need is another transmission weight (for the 4 electric motors), and batteries. Not a good way to head towards 2600 pound supercars, is it?
     
  22. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    I think maybe the more general question is what will happen to the prices of late-model exotic cars if there is a very large paradigm shift or improvement in cars over the next 20 years.

    I believe the answer is that the prices will do as they always have. My 456 is a vastly better car than my 365GT 2+2-- really no comparison on any quantitative basis. So, rationally the price of the 365 should be much less than the 456, right? I mean, the 456 is a much superior vehicle and all.

    In fact, the 456 is worth a little more than the 365 in nominal dollars. However, as a percentage of the original purchase price, the 365 is worth about 3x it's original purchase price, while the 456 is worth about 1/3 of it's MSRP.

    So, my opinion is that even though the 2020 Ferrari 2+2 will be vastly superior to the 456 (not to mention the 365), the 456 will not be worthless at all. And, the 2-seat cars should do even better.
     
  23. mk e

    mk e F1 World Champ

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    quote=Mitch Alsup]
    The generator for 400-500 HP will weigh in just about what a transmission for a 400-500 HP car will weigh. SO consider it free. Now all you need is another transmission weight (for the 4 electric motors), and batteries. Not a good way to head towards 2600 pound supercars, is it?[/quote]

    I did a quick search and turned up this:
    "100hp, 3600 rpm, fr 445US, enclosure TEFC, 575 volt, 3 ph, 1.15 SF, serial no. 973004 and 944849, U frame, weight 1585 lbs, F1 amps 89.00, shaft size 2.125"

    So 4 motors to get to 400 hp is 6000 lbs. I'd guess another 6000 for the 400 hp generator, then maybe 2000 lbs for a reasonalbe amount of battery and the 2600 lbs, 400 hp supercar turns into the 15000 lbs super-slow.
     
  24. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    juicert, i think you are right on many points.
    i have often (on this site as well) advocated the hybrid technology. it is the easiest and most attainable alternative to full ic engines. and it will make serious inroads on the american (and world) markets over the next 10 years. even better would be diesel/electric hybrids like the one that mercedes is developing for europe - then you are talking 100 mpg !

    btw, hydrogen is not the answer. the production, storage, and distribution problems are prohibitive. hybrids don't change anything in the car/energy infrastructure, the vehicle costs are borne by the buyers (with hopefully some more govt contribution).

    as to what this tech will do to supercar prices, i don't think it will do that much. there are all sorts of cars that currently compete with supercars from a transportation standpoint, but not in an emotional way. and if we are right and hybrids take over, there will still be gasoline available, and the govt will not make it illegal to run a non-hybrid since a great percentage of the US fleet will remain non-hybrid for some time. present era ferrari prices will only be affected when ferrari makes the best hybrid supercar in the market, and then only as much as new models currently displace older model prices. imho
     
  25. DeSoto

    DeSoto F1 Veteran

    Nov 26, 2003
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    Despite diesel engines save fuel, toxic emissions of diesel engines are very dangerous due their composition and not good at all for enviroment.
     
  26. mk e

    mk e F1 World Champ

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    Not true. The primary problem with diesel engine emissions is soot, composed of carbon. Carbon is not toxic to anything, it is what we are made from. Soot in general does irritate lungs. But they have figured out how to put a cat on a diesel to correct it.

    Partly true. The gas pumps stay the same, but prices at the pump will go up much faster if hybrids are widely used. This is because building a hybrid car comsumes about 50% more energy than a standard car, and only about half of that energy is recovered as fuel savings due to increased milage over the life of the vehicle. So hybrid cars consume about 20% more energy over their life than standard cars. This causes an INCREASE in demand and consumption of oil, which pollutes the enviroment MORE and drives up fuel prices at the same time. It's a bad idea all the way around. Not as bad as hydrogen which will increase oil use by about 30%-40%, but still pretty bad.
     
  27. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

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    Where did you get this information ?
     
  28. wax

    wax Four Time F1 World Champ
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    Thou shalt not break Laws of Thermodynamics
     

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