Rod Stewart’s Miura : £1.25M to £800k The speculation is the classic car world is incredible. Amari Supercars were looking £1.25M for the above car. Now estimated at £800k. Click on the links below. Would take a very wealthy or very brave person to pull the trigger and commit to buy currently. It will be interesting to see how things pan out over the next few years. Further details on the links below. Rod Stewart's Lamborghini super cars up for sale - Manchester Evening News 1971 Lamborghini Miura P400 S ?SV Specification | Coys of Kensington
Yes, this is the point I am making, but more than a statistically speaking, it a "feel" I have when speaking to millennials around the world - there simply is no interest. The question then is, if you have 2,5, 50,100 million in your account, what do you buy? Facebook shares, government bonds with negative yields? Art, real estate? Sent from my EVA-L19 using Tapatalk
Swiss francs are also negative yielding asset - but the question is what will the future generation be interested in? Again, if this forum is any measure, the demographics, I don't see many "youngsters" jumping in over the last 5 years - but then again, by the time we all pass away, this will not be a problem we have to deal with anyways
Whatever the longer term shift in genrations, the market ahs fallen lest sat 25% over 1 year, and still seems to be dropping. A 1 year shift has almost zero to do with genrational tastes. The car market seems to sun in 5-10 year cycles, gets hyped up overshoots and then drops. As to whether millenials will like 60s ferraris, look at it this way, plenty of people whose parents were not alive buy 20s bugattis and duesenbergs. Exceptional cars are just that, they may vary in price according to cycles but there will always be buyers and the longer term trend is up as the planet becomes wealthier and cars become legitimate art amongst non gearheads. Considder also that we are rapidly approaching or in the period of the synthetic car. One you suggest a route to through controlls and the car does the heavy lifting. In the future cars will be to a greater or lesser degree self drive. Ill argue that between paddles drive by wire, nannies and eps most modern sportscars are already halfway there. therefore 20 years from now any car that is vicerlay human drive will have appeal, and the more special the car the greater the appeal. Cars whose shape was designed without bowing to legislation will have the strongest pull. Therefore anythign ferrari up though the 328 is going to be in high demand, there simply wont be anything like it made again. I would argue infact that evrything ferrari through the 355 is going to be colelctable in a way later cars are not, and everyhting lambo untill the gallardo. This car cycle has firmly planted cars as legitimatley motive art amongst those who are clearly not gearheads or drivers. There are now lots of events to show off your car purchase, you dotn even have to be able to drive it, and more and more rallies as vactaions for older cars. Cars you fully drive with non legislated styling will in time become weekend playhtings, and eventualy not even allowed on daily roaods ie highways. The better lookign and more special a car the more it will be worth. Manufacturers wont be making any more, and maybe there will be 3 d printed ones for a great cost. So whats a 308 worth then. Back to the here and now. The market has fallen 25% at least off peak auction in the last year. Nothing to do with generational shift. Maybe a lot more to do with people being careful and a market that was fully hyped coming back to reality. Now maybe peak auction was not a real price so prices down only 20% but its still falling. Just look at TRs the last car really hyped, we see asks and some sales for 150k in late 14, prices now well below 100K for similar cars. inventory is sitting and it cant sit forever. Maybe there are so few GTos and DD countachs that prices there can hold. But even 288s and F40s are down. Good news is the time to buy cycle is returning, so whats on everybodies list.
Where did you find that data? HAGI's database and K500 has barely moved downward, and that's based on known selling results from auctions across the whole spectrum of classic cars. For example, Hagi's Ferrari index is down 1.55% year to date through September. K500 is very similar. I don't know how 1.55% equals 25% by any stretch so I wonder what I'm not seeing.
Hagi is mostly static up and down. I follow actual transaction results, posted by auction, also seen in SCM and here wherever people post results of a sale, like here on f-chat. There are several cars I follow very closely Boxers TRs 328s, 288s F40's and a few other non Fcars. I also look at dealer websites, see inventory sitting, and see ask prices, and prices reduced. Lastly I speak with people who buy and sell these cars.
Not holding him out as THE maven, but still and inetresting article on the subject. https://ferraris-online.com/pages/article.php?reqart=FOC_201607_SS
You're saying that Hagi, which uses a recognized statistical method and complex mathematics to tell a complete story with their various indices, is wrong? You seem to be implying that you know what's what and all their data and statistical compiling is way off base because they only use known sales and data points. I would love to see your data and how it's compiled so that you characterize the entire market as "down 25%." I talk to those guys frequently about their data and while I don't always believe that they know why the data is what it is, I do know how they compile it and it is very thorough and based on a complete look of very real information. By the way, I'm not sure how you can say it's "mostly static up and down." Like any other index of a financial vehicle, it moves. If you have access to the data and look at the graphs, it moves a ton, like 14% in one year. I'm not sure how that can possibly be considered "mostly static" by anyone trained in financial statistics. Hey, if the market is truly down over 25% "and dropping" I'm getting my check book out and emptying the war chest. Of course, I do have my doubts about hearsay compared to actual data but I digress. There's no need to muddy this thread with facts and data. On the contrary, anecdotes and hearsay seem perfectly acceptable when people want to put forth their statements of "fact" in this thread.
1960's hippies became the 1980's-1990's mega-consumer yuppies. Don't write off Millenials as "materialistic" car collectors just yet.
Hey you can bamboozle yourself with other peoples printed "data" all you want. You know there are lie dammed lkies and then there are statistics. I dont rely on outside sources to try compare apples with oranges which is what happens if you try compare two cars of the same model on paper. You need to compare like for like over a time frame, or you need to be able to fudge differences in condition and extrapolate. Over time you get an idea of various cars in various conditions and when another one sells you have a educated comparable answer. case in point. In 2014 two BBIs sold for 350-360k. they were both low under 7k mileage were as built but had not run in years, and were made to run to get acorss the auction block. in othr words they were 400k+ boxers once sorted to run on road. That was a high point. Today we see a great 512 BB which normaly is at a premium to a BBI with an ask from a dealer just under 300K. Thats tells you soemhting. Dinos, they are off. Daytonas were pushing 800k now under 700. There is a whole 512M thread in the Boxer Trs ection where it looks like real actual transaction prices are off 25%. 288s. One sold a few years back for 3.5 mill, thae last one if memory servs was well under 3. Maybe it was condition. Alfa Giulias are even off. The only market that seems to be defying gravity is aircooled 911s, lets see how long that lasts. So far 930 turbos are off their peak. In the end so what, prices went up 2X or 3X or 4X depending on when and ca, r and have come off 25%. Maybe a 2754 cam wont come off hardly at all because now its genuine blue chip. But lots of others, theyre off peak. Its a market, no market goes up forever, for whatever reasons the car market runs in cycles.
First, there is no argument that prices are not rising as they were and they're stabilizing. There's also no doubt that there are fewer buyers for more cars (high prices tend pry the best cars out of people's hands) and there is no possible way that anyone could have expected there not to be a stabilizing as with any healthy market. But for someone to say that there's a 25% drop (and still falling) at this moment of time just flies in the face of the actual data. That's all I'm saying. Listen, if you think that real data is overrated and that your gut feelings are more reliable, that's fine. But let's call a spade a spade here.
I don't follow the indices but isn't HAGI denominated in sterling so if it's flat in sterling then it's down 15-20% in dollars? Any discussion about the market must be currency specific. U.S. based collectors can talk about the market slowing down but that same market may look pretty robust from the point of view of a European (and out of control from the point of view of a Russian or Brazilian)...
I do understand what you're saying but cars balance out as the car market is very efficient across currencies. There is a big dip right after Brexit but then it all sort of evened out when europeans started buying the cars in the UK at what they feel is a discount. Technically there is a balance of currencies and the cars quickly adapt to where they're going, probably because they're portable and can cross borders. For example, did you see RM's last sale in London? The prices were through the roof, especially for LHD cars. When I saw the results, I thought it was dollars , not pound sterling. But it wasn't.
It's true I didn't major in math so my analysis could be spotty but based on Hagi we see a 6.5% drop, not 25% which would value it at 288K. Even then, but to me, a 'crash' would be a reversion back to at least 2013 levels which would be about 150K. But the true question to prognosticators is not 'if' it will happen, but when? next month? 6 months? 1 year? 2 years? I always see folks always saying it's right around the corner, which doesn't really help anybody. Image Unavailable, Please Login
Paul, that's good data but I think that's Hagerty data, which is good and all but it's not HAGI. HAGI is this: historicautogroup.com It's a bunch of financial market analysts and car lovers who created the most sophisticated car value chart and index in the world. They're awesome dudes. FYI, K500 does something like this, too.
I don't want to really debate pricing but I think millennials appreciate vintage cars more than people think. As a side note with 83 million millennials ( US Census #) a 2/828 hit rate equals 200k people and that's just in the US and one age group.
Thanks Sherpa - sorry for my mistake and thank you for the correction. I appreciate the education. Cheers
Thanks again Sherpa, you're right K500 is awesome! Again, I didn't major in finance, and ttforcefed is much better qualified to talk here...but when I think of a 'crash' - this is what I think. A reversion to the levels before the run-up (mid 2009/2010 levels.) According to the doomsayers - this happened already. K500 Data Below Image Unavailable, Please Login
I didn't major in statistics, but Here is HAGI from June 2015: 315.96 June 2016: 325.63 September 2016: 337.55 But these are the "creme de la creme" which I think is what Sherpa has been saying for a while now. Image Unavailable, Please Login Image Unavailable, Please Login Image Unavailable, Please Login
You can read any charts you want, prices were stabilizing, now they have fallen. More on some cars than others, but with the rarest of exceptions they are down significantly. Ill stick with my 25% number based on actual transactions of cars I follow. Maybe they are stabilizing there, maybe 5% lower maybe they go back up after the election. We see the same with overhyped contemporary art except there the fall is greater. You can read threads in almost any section on this site and see the same. 550's are another good example. Maybe many cars reached for highs they didnt deserve and touched the stars breifly. Another example is 997 Gt3s.
Ask yourself the question if you HAD to buy an exact car to the one you now own: Would i rather buy it again now at the current 'value' ..or wait 6 months? That should answer most questions .
Well the US debt grew by 1.4Trillion last year. An increase of over 8% in the amount of dollars in the world. And that is one of the better currencies, since it actually appreciated against that development. Governments are spending and borrowing like there is no tomorrow. I find it hard to believe there will be much devaluation of assets in such an environment. Currency debasement is of all ages, which incidentally is a big reason why collecting things rather than cash has always been popular with those who understand this. And the debasement seems to be accelerating still.
All true, and that explains why car prices trebbled over 3 years when debt was going from 12 to 20 trillion. A lot of liquidity looking for somewhere to land creates overheating of limited assets, we see this even in stocks which are far betetr understood. The reality is there are not enough cars wine art etc to absorb all that money. Therefore the market gets overheated and at a certain point recorrects when the money realizes that better value can be found elsewhere in other assets. Now yes if money supply keeps blowing up, then a year or two years from now the frenzy can return. But for now many people entered a market buying off a checklist, and are exiting because even they relize real value has been exceeded by hype. We saw the exact same thing with american iron pre recssion, and while prices "satbilized" 20-30% off peak they have not resumed(with rare exceptions) because percieved value was exceded and demographics etc inetrvened. Markets overshoot and thats what were seeing with euro cars now.
