I think we all agree, in hindsight, that this thread started early in this graph. I think the thread started at around the middle of the "awareness" phase. There is no specific time axis in this graph. Each market has its own unique triggers. The auction in Milan this weekend was interesting because virtually the entire crowd was new bidders allured by the prospect of a fire sale. This type of mania has a lot of similarities to the later stages of recent bubbles.
I hope you are right as I really want that SEFAC comp SWB. I would definitely buy one in the capitulation phase. How long do I have to wait? Normalizing back to what year pricing? In the meantime, I will buy what I am comfortable with owning and losing money on to enjoy.
Just because they are new bidders for RM doesn't necessarily mean they are newbies to the car market, it just means they hadn't bid with RM before. The fact is even if they came for fire sale deals they were not had and most cars sold at market or above. As I said previously, I don't think this tics the market up, but many have been saying the sky is falling and a no reserve auction has proved otherwise so far.
How do we know that virtually the entire crowd was new bidders? I asked someone at RM and was told that over half of the bidders were existing RM clients. Think about this: not only would it highly unusual for a sale like that one but RM has a steady base of die hards that come to every sale they have and bid hard (and usually get some good cars). It's hard to believe someone new to the market plunking down $3m for an MC12. Again, it's just not a new bidder kind of sale. I will say this. The typical European RM sale would have 500 to 700 clients and this had 3000 clients so it's fair to say that there would have to be a lot of new bidders but to say that "virtually all" the bidders were new bidders seems off base to me.
From the "Duemilla Ruote" thread - You have to admit that there were a lot of results that seem very difficult to rationalize. It's hard not to think that there's some 'uneducated mania' at play here...
Certain prices on par with 2014 auction results. Could it be a lot bidders not enough cars? Very impressive results.
A number of very knowlegable collectors have stated numbers of 85% or more of the 1600+ preregistered were new bidders. When close to 9/10 is new, I will generalize and call that virtually everyone. If 700 is typical and 3000 show up this is unusual. This means easily 1400 new bidders that probably don't understand the finer points of gamesmanship in an auction like this especially when the seller is the tax dept.
The problem lies with money. One thing you can say for sure. There will never be more classic ferrairs. you cant print them. You cant dig the out of the ground. at least you got something in stead of a piece of paper.
yep.. more money then cars. limited amount..better hold on to them.. they can go down again ...against money yes. but then again.. what is money worth nowadays. they just print it out of thin air. Where to put it?
man talk about trying to stretch an argument. this time new bidders is a bad thing. if it was the same old guys cries of speculators wld be running wild. now we get new bidders and that's a bad thing. interest rates have moved and risk assets have repriced - thank you DT. the world actually feels good again and the zombie like feeling we've had post 2011 is slowly departing. I think what we have seen is prices reset to the new norm until the next 2008 happens again.
Sometimes I think some of you are hoping for a crash?? Proof is in the pudding, It would have happened by now! **** cars are bringing **** money, great cars bring great money, period. As for what happened in Milan, it should be embraced, let's not make excuses. Even if most bidders were new, we can't assume they were also uneducated. Remember the European economy is in the toilet, and like it or not classic cars have become more treasured as a safe investment, which could probably explan the Milan results...
yes i agree. not only the european economie is in the toilet.. That is not possible.. it is global. when europe goes down they all go down.. but the real problem lies with the fractional reserve system. that systeem is coming to an end. and the smart money looks for an other thing to put moeny in. or how to say.. to save value. it is not only classic cars but all real or hard assets when up strongly. all the assets where you can save value.
The Euro is tanking and will probably be at parity or under the dollar by spring, add in possible negative interest rates, brexit, Le Penn rising in France, the renzi referendum next week and the banking issues in Italy, the populist uprising throughout the eurozone and the real possibility of more countries doing their own brexit resulting in an EU breakup. Right now collector cars look like a good hedge, by summer it may not look the same as Trump's economic policies begin to take shape.
There were 3000 bidders in all and someone from RM told me that just over half were existing clients. I'll see about getting exact figures but I believe my guys at RM when they tell me that. Again, that just isn't a sale where 2,550 were new bidders and only 450 were existing clients. I just do not see how that is possible. As far as the "uneducated mania" part, if 1400 of the 3000 bidders were new then they could absolutely play a real role in the results. However, I can see that affecting many of the smaller lots but I can't see it affecting many of those big figure lots. Uneducated buyers don't just come off the street and plunk down millions for alloy 275s and MC12s. Lastly, this is not to say that this sale means that prices are rising. The only point is that it flies in the face of people who insist that the market is down 25% to 30% across the board. HAGI has the decrease at a small percentage. Besides, as old as this chicken little thread is, a 25% drop from a peak is likely still significantly higher than prices when this thread started. Just buy what you like when it makes sense for your situation. Prices go up and prices go down but great cars remain special to their owners regardless of what they're worth.
i used to live in europe but now in russia and i can tell you that europe is not doing so well but when you compare it to america then still they are doing fine. I was kinda shocked last time i was in america. so poor so many homeless ppl and so on. That you do not see in europe. YUou do not even see it in russia by the way.
In the market-related threads here, I'm observing people waiting to buy when there's proverbial blood in the streets, who, like you and others, are likely willing and able to act if/when that happens. This is a real support in demand for a relatively scarce supply. While we opine that price X isn't sustainable because of production number Y, I think the reality is that supply and demand, which is the fundamental driver in this (most/all) market(s), is such that supply simply isn't overwhelming. Consider passionate owners who never allow their cars to enter the market, discriminating buyers who eliminate certain examples, and a potential paradigm shift (which could be a trap per the chart or could be a real change) that graduated "cars" into an asset class among the ranks of fine art. Furthermore, all that in context of our macro-economic outlook says stagflation/deflation is unlikely and that domestic growth prospects now look positive. Passion, experience, history, and economics all enter the psychology that drives and rationalizes demand in special cars. Not simply robotic "investors." That sentiment circles back to my point that guys like you, for example, are "waiting"... and there are enough - across the spectrum, from 355 to F50 to SWB - who mix business and pleasure, so to speak, and synthesize the pragmatic perspective on the market and life in general without getting caught up in the minutia who are willing to step up that we won't see a $400K F40 or $600K F50. Long story short, I think there are rational participants who aren't buying into the speculation and provide long-standing commitment to their purchases regardless of highs and lows. And considering we're talking about one of life's greatest esoteric experiences, it's not cut-and-dry. Dooms-dayers have plenty of talking points, but barring a depression, if a Ferrari is more fun than a stock and might actually end up breaking even/making a bit/losing a bit, if you already have you'r house in order, it's a no brainer.
The US economy has limped along for the past 7 years, all signs are things are about to change. By summer of 2018 it should be firing on all 12 cylinders.
Okay, I did get back some real information on the bidders at the sale and I was indeed wrong: Of the 3000 bidders, about 4 out of every 5 were new to RM. There is no real explanation other than the lots were fairly unusual for an RM sale. I don't know if that means the hobby is growing or if it's just regular car people who don't do RM sales typically. So, there you go. Continue discussion.
ive never even been to an auction and the majority of my car friends have never bought a car at an auction fwiw
man i really hope so... i hope to see so change there for the better. We are talking ferraris and huge sums of money when there are so many ppl without houses food healthinsurance and so on. Glad to live in russia. Here healthinsurance for free.... and i am not even russian. But ok maybe time to think about the homeless.
Yes, not going to happen. Unlike certificates or money, you can't issue new ones or print more of it. The F50 here Cars | Joe Sackey Classics just sold 10 days ago for @ $2.4 million, and the GTO just sold a week ago for @ the same. Two separate transactions, two separate buying parties, a CEO of a public company whose products you use every day, and a car-collecting Orthopedic Surgeon. Both have been buying cars for the long term with my help over the last 5 years, and clearly see no reason to change direction. Both are astute thoughtful people, not given to impulse. All just FYI, from someone who operates in the market 24/7/365 for a living. Carry on gentlemen.
Your anecdotal evidence doesnt mean much when compared to real statistics. The US has a smaller homeless population percentage than a lot of Europe and especially Russia. US is at 0.2% while Russia is at 3.5% using numbers they released. Germany, France, England and Sweden are some of the countries that have a higher homeless population per capita than the US. Just because you saw a lot of homeless people while visiting doesnt mean its a representation of the whole country.
For me really i hope for all the homeless ppl. And I know about numbers. Official or not official. I just believe my eyes. And I can really assure you that you are better off being poor in Russia then in many other countries. But OK this is a ferrari forum. The cars go up in price because money goes down. That's the story.
