is the bubble due to burst?

we agree! buying opportunity now just not sure exactly when is best. maybe in a few more months no?

 

I have cars and quite a bit of money in them, but I do not see them as investments; for that I have a modest portfolio of stocks. I buy cars for my pleasure. Big difference in philosophy and enjoyment.
So when is best? As soon as you find the car you like for the price you like, I would say.

 

Wise advice! Best not to chase prices in the name of "investment."

 

Genuinely asking...

Have prices really gone backwards 30% for Ferraris?

Leave the outliers (the record setting cars) have they really slid back 30%?

There were some idiots overselling 550s and a handful of takers... but I am not sure how many truly traded at crazy numbers...

Id love to be able to buy a daytona again for 350... or heck 500... but no good ones to be found... (if found please send one to me)

Id love to buy a 275 for under a million or hell a million... but... can't find that either...

Would love to buy a 550 for under 100 (sub 20k mile good history) but can't find that either

Would love to buy a 360 CS for 160k... but can't find that either



So the crazy record setting prices may be gone... but... so are those cars... the good ones are largely put away for safe keeping... and when brought out will likely do a strong number.

 

Looks like it, check Bonhams Scottsdale.

https://www.bonhams.com/auctions/23945/live/#/MR0_length=36&w0=grid&k0=76&m0=0

 

Those Daytonas are very needy examples, per some very educated people for whom I have a great deal of respect who have looked and touched them. So are lots of the cars there. I think it's incredibly naive to compare the prices that great cars fetch with the prices that bad cars struggle to get and say, "look! The market is way down."

Wait until the dust settles and the smart guys report back. I think the consensus will be that the good cars are gone, as was pointed out.

 

I made my post prior to getting my educastion...

 

Hahahaha! Not at all. Backs up with Technom3 said. It's hard to find good cars. Prices for mediocre cars just won't come close. No one is going to overpay for crappy examples today.

 

Confirms the old saying: "You get what you pay for."

 

A good friend added a modifier to this expression that I often found true:

"You get what you pay for... If you're lucky(!)."

 

First media report indicates that Scottsdale classic car auction has gained back some of the erosion from last year. Report suggests a bit of correlation with the stock market.

Wealthy car collectors are feeling more confident, as Scottsdale auctions rake in $260 million

 

Noooo, fake news!! Don't you know? People like superdave and Brad Williams told us all it popped half a year ago, and proclaimed it like their life depended on it. Oh how easy it is to make bold claims and (poof) disappear..when they then don't hold true.

But imagine if there was another black swan event? SD/BW duo would be harping their financial prognostication bonafides up and own this thread...easy to make claims when your time limit is infinity..hide when your prediction doesn't come true, and Roubini it up if it does...

Damn, I wish my options contracts had no expiration date...wouldn't that be wonderful for me?!

 

My sense is the market is firming again. Its also going to be different to 14 in that buisness and market gains will provide the income and mindset to move things forwards.

 

More fake news Sean!! The collapse is just right around the corner*

*Could mean tomorrow or next year or 4 years(age of this thread) from now.

So helpful huh?!

 

Come on man, the sarcasm isn't necessary. Diversity of opinion is the lifeblood of any discussion group. If everyone agreed on everything, the discussions here would put us all in a coma and none of us would ever learn anything. Trolling is one thing, but well-meaning diverse opinions should be encouraged, not scared away. Attack the specifics of the arguments when you believe there are flaws -- that is the entire point of discussing -- but please don't attack the people and don't create an environment where those with opposing views can't feel comfortable sharing their thoughts because that weakens the value of the community and significantly decreases quality of discussion within that community. The moderators will take care of trolling, the rest should be argued on the merits (or lack thereof) of the points raised.

 

I get the sarcasm. More important though to be honest with ones opinions and not just one track.

You denied the market was going off the boil early last year. you denied it was off 20-30% when it was. You know like Claptons F40 being offered for just over 1 mill and lots of no sales with dealer inventory bloating. But no need to flog a dead horse.

Now from what i am seeing and sensing the market firming and with economic growth it imo it will go up again.

However it will be driven Imo by people with real money, ie gains. Therefore the speculative money lookign for aseets to park in we saw more recently will take some time to come back. Ropey cars wont fetch great car prices so prior purchaser here are still burnt for a while, and we are unlikely to see a 599 stick selling for 700k to someone clueless with a checklist, at least not at first, but that will come as it inevitably does when things overheat and silly money jumps in.

I also think some cars that had big runups before wont see their prior highs, like possibly dinos, and there will be new favorites. 308s for example deckined less than others, are a thing for the current generation and still very affordable.

Dealers also say quality american iron is getting a second wind, so maybe spaghetti has while to go before it runs again.. Of course all the spare money may stay in the market for a while growing before it comes out into toys so we may see only a slight firming in the short term.

Trend is firming off a bottom and up though.

 

Really? I said the market didn't slow down?

Feel free to quote where I said it didn't slow down.

I remember saying it didn't crash.

I guess one man's crash is another man's correction or dip.

 

Whatever.

 

Thanks peterp

I want to make it clear there is nothing wrong talking about bubbles. It's a healthy a good thing. It is confusing however when you say one thing, then do the exact opposite for years on these boards.

Feel free to judge for yourself who the 'troll' here is...

Keep in mind I've offered BradWillaims fair warning twice and gave him an out, but he leaves me no choice as he continues to denigrate fellow Ferrari owners.

1) Mocks Ferrari owners by saying real enthusiast keep their cars long term, yet he flips his TR and 550 as quickly as he can.

2) Laments the high prices of Ferrari, doesn't buy them even if prices are below market (actually update, he did buy back a salvage TR, after telling others not to buy Ferrari, go figure)

3) Wishes Ferrari owners ruin. When called out on this says people are trolling

4) Holds the position that we are in a bubble ... for five long years (actually we've entered the 6th year now)

5) Says he can't wait for a crash in prices, but then the crash will ruin the hobby for enthusiasts like him

6) Says the run up in prices are mostly due to fraud, can't provide one iota of evidence. When called out on this, says people are trolling

7) Hates owners and buyers, calls them pigs for 'talking' up prices, but says the value of his 550 going to 140K when he wants to flip one.

8) Asks me to moves the conversation to PM, asks a moderator to block me on PM.

9) Complains that the run up value makes cars unfair for enthusiasts, when asked what those cars are, keeps it secret.

10) Says real enthusiasts don't worry about the value of their cars,
all he talks about is the value of these cars all day.

Bradwilliam's words of wisdom he himself said five years ago, what happened since that he's become one of the 'losers'?"

Just making sure old bold prognostications are not forgotten...these are chips I am certainly cashing in now.

Did prices dip? Sure - but did they "CRASH?" I think not...could it, would it in the future? OF course! Given a long enough time horizon all things 'crash'.

 

Sean, not trying to be disrespectful to you, but when folks like Bradwilliams and SuperDave position their opinions as fact and boldly claim for years that X will happen, and it doesn't - I feel it at the very least these claims deserve to be re-examined - especially when a lot of "just wait and see how I'm right" were thrown around from them in the last 5 years...

Well we all waited.

...and we all certainly see.

If anybody can point me to a well sorted Dino 246 for under 100K again - I will happily give you a finder's fee..and apologize to everybody here that I somehow missed the "crash/collapse/capitulation/reversion to the mean/etc"

 

Fair enough. That's a hell of a post! I wasn't at all trying to suggest you were a troll, I just don't like environments that shut out diversity because, without diversity, you have nothing. There is always value in fair critique of arguments, as you have offered in your post above (in world record time I might add).

 

not a problem my friend!! Bradwilliams has for a long time on these boards (5+ years) held the fanatical conviction that a total collapse is imminent.

Admittedly, I with even more ferver have been calling him out. Throughout the discussion it it became clear to me as well as others that BW has some contempt for high end owners like yourself. (My car is too lowly ) -- and their recent gains.

your 330 is gorgeous btw!! (Drool)

Just wanted to make sure his bold claims don't get forgotten: that a complete collapse is right around the corner.

I myself admit it is always a possibility - and it's a healthy thing - but my position comes from one of investment and personal gain - not from schadenfreude.

Be well and drive in good health!

 

Then hurl your invective at them.

Speaking of Dinos. Remember that one that was rusted so badly the whole front end was eaten away missing that went for what 345K in late 14, that was clearly the point of Dino peak. Good great cars were cresting 450k.

Dont know about 100k Dinos, cant rememebr anyone sayign that would be the price, even Brad. We probably wont see that again short of global depression. But under 300k for nice ones is certainly realistic these days.

The previous rise in car prices, driven at the end by specualtion was over by late 15, the only reason imo the market is firming and may go back up again is because the candidate who no experts said would win, did win the presidency so we have a different economic dynamic.

Lets see how it plays out. Might be a good time int he next few weeks to buy a sub 100k nice Tr.

 

Looks like Bradwilliams hasn't posted in this thread in almost 2 months and Super Dave has been gone almost a year now. They certainly haven't been voicing their opinions lately. Like peterp, I appreciate opposing opinions and it is my choice to accept or reject the advice expressed.

 

I just quit reading this whole Damn thing, just too much nonsense. Thanks for making a bad experience in Ferrarichat..... this is what we want people to think when they see it for the first time. It is a rat race between two members that can't agree and tear each other up.


What a mess.

John