Obviously it is a matter of degree. I don't think short term rates are going back to 10%, or even 5%. But could they go up somewhat? I believe they will, so we'll just have to agree to disagree. Sustained high inflation tends to be very politically unpopular, probably even more unpopular than rising interest rates.
Hmm... what happened to the stock market last Friday when the Fed suggested they might raise rates in 2022 instead of 2023? Anytime the Fed tries to raise rates, the market will punish them and get the politicians interest.
What does the stock market do when inflation exceeds about 2-3% over a long period of time? Hint-- it's not great either. Actually, in the early stages of a rising rate cycle, the stock market tends to do pretty well.
I think they will start to cut back on QE and do tightening. They already talked about cutting back on MBS purchases before Treasuries at their last meeting. They don't have to change the Feds funds rate at all since they are doing so much asset buying. I don't see this ending well in the next 3-6 months.
I agree. There will be no soft landing. Politicians are by definition *******. At the first sign of any real tightening, the stock market will tank and the politicians will freak. What does this mean for vintage Ferraris? Hang to your hat, folks. It's gonna be Green Grass and High Tides forever (until it is not). Postscript: I saw Jimmy Buffet open for the Outlaws. It must have been January 1977, but I could be wrong. I was expecting Buffett to be the "Hushpuppy Man." Didn't happen. It must have been one of the first times they played Changes in Latitude and Changes in Attitude. Blew me away. The only time I saw Buffett, but what a time. Then the Outlaws came on. They played and played and played. They would turn on the lights, they kept playing. They would turn off the sound, they kept playing. They did everything they could to stop them, but they kept playing. It must have been 4:00 am before they stopped playing. What's the point of bringing this up? Beats me, but if I owned a valuable vintage Ferrari, I wouldn't sell just yet. Then again, don't get greedy.
If I had access to that kind of information, I would already have a big garage full of Ferraris. I would think my guess is no better than yours. LOL
Not sure I agree, but I’m not an expert here. For the Euro vs CNY vs USD example, I don’t think investors would blindly choose the one with the highest rates. Inflation has to factor into the decision too. Otherwise every investor would buy the currency with the highest rates and we know that’s not what happens.
Inflation is a factor to a certain extent, sure. But I don't think it matters if they are within a few points of each other. The range among large economies is, at most, what 3-4% at the high end vs -0.1% at the low end or so? I don't think it matters within that range.
All these scares of inflation are just for the headlines and mainstream media. M2 money supply has significantly decelerated, and all those that were fantasizing about lumber, it too has come down over 50% - oil is next as soon as supply normalizes. Sent from my MAR-LX1M using Tapatalk
The M2 supply is increasing, but at a lower rate. Anyway, I look at bubbles based on dollars in existence (M2) as you say and the total stock market cap (Wilshire 5000). Stock purchases are cleared with dollars so more dollars printed lets it go up due to monetary inflation. This basically sums it up, but I need to find where they used M2SL in the denominator. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=sCNU https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
Bubble is going as strong as ever at Monterey so far. F40s closing in on $3m, F50s near $4m. 599 6-speed for $700k. Unbelievable.
I think F40s have been underpriced for a while, many claiming it as their favorite F supercar. I think the Daytona and Boxer are good buys right now. We are lucky to have these three.
Image Unavailable, Please Login It’s the fees that inflate the thing Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
IMO say u pay 2.5 for that car, that’s 600k wasted when you could get this one for 1.9, yeah more miles but 600k… that’s a lot of money! https://www.ferraribeverlyhills.com/auto/used-1992-ferrari-f40-base-near-beverlyhills-ca/57657415/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Nope, highest was $2.892m with fees, as ttforcefed posted the screenshot of. Anyone know why the one at Bonhams only got to a high bid of $1.35m?
Which is 2.4 … I don’t know about the bonham one but it would appear, across the board, that the us market is running hot. This F40 in France is 1.5,1.6 with tax. 355GTS can be had for 100 vs 160 hère etc https://www.lacentrale.fr/auto-occasion-annonce-87102086306.html Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
