is the bubble due to burst?

Just read my latest issue of SCM and found myself marveling at how, in today's pricing climate, many full classic truly important milestone cars suddenly look way underpriced. Eg, Auctions America, Fall meet Auburn, the catalog cover car '29 Duesenberg Model J convertible sold for $1.4M, Condition #1! RM Sotheby's Motor City auction sold a 35 model J dual cowl at $835K, also spectacular restoration with silly low miles.

That prime examples of the greatest car ever produced in America sell at lower figures than dozens of mass-produced sportscars says something about... something!

 

Those fine autos do not command the prices of the past. The generation who cherished these cars is gone. They have fallen out of the limelight unfortunately. A millions bucks for a car is nothing to sneeze at, but they have fallen dramatically.

This will be the fate of many currently high prices cars.

 

I believe this to be true. Every generation has it's love of particular types of cars. The Ferraris are the new Dusenburgs.

 

The only thing Ferrari has going for it, is that they are still in business. If dusenburg was still around, you could pretty much bet the older cars would command huge money.

Look at Bugatti. If Bugatti faded away, the cars would not be worth what they are today. But because the name is still alive, they command the big bucks. Even the talbot Lagos fall into this category. They should be a priceless car IMHO.

 

Same thing happened during the bubble of 89. Dig up the articles. As soon as the european modern market began to eclipse the vintage prewar cars, eyebrows were raised. This is happening again, and is another one of the dozens of red flags.. Kind of like when property in Harlem begins to compete with property in Manhattan as it is in the present. Try to rationalize it all you want, but it's like trying to convince people that an iroc camaro is worth as much as a lamborghini Miura. It just doesn't make any sense.

This could be correct. But odds are, the top echelon of the collector cars, (pre-war, 60s Ferraris, etc. The truly rare and collectible pieces, not 1980s Ferraris with production numbers of 5-10k cars) are sliding first, preceding the modern cars. The same thing happened last time.

 

Both Duesenberg's mentioned above had "stories" and were not completely original cars. That is why the pricing was lower. Actually, prices for the high end classics are rebounding somewhat from a few years ago. There is no question that car collecting is generational, but the "quality" classics will always have value. I know for a fact that a number of Ferrari collectors who are now in their 40's and 50's, have been beginning to think about adding a Duesenberg, Marmon Sixteen, Cadillac V-16 or special Packard to their collections. So a 1930's Dodge or Pontiac, no, but the special cars will always be sought after.

 

I agree with this but I would add not only has Ferrari stayed in business, but most of us think the best age for cars that give you mechanical feedback is from somewhere in the 50s-very early 70s before the regulations killed cars. Those cars were the most advanced cars before cars basically had to be reinvented. So I think Ferrari also has this going for it- which might help it as one generation of collectors and enthusiasts goes into the next. I really think Ferrari was at the right place and time for this and I don't think thats going to change.

I'm not saying modern car valuations should be anywhere near the vintage ones, but purely from a performance standpoint, we are in a new golden age of cars. We had a major recession (still going?) and more regulation than ever and yet the power keeps climbing and the tech keeps improving. Will this be the last hurrah before we all go driverless- and what will that mean for these cars? I have no idea- I just know I like to drive them

 

Fun guys, we met them at Pebble. Can you tell which is the bad one? I saw the funniest thing at the Breakers at Cavallino a few years ago. One of them, or maybe it was someone they were with, took off in a Europa and did this to the green, all while running a bystander into the weeds....best divots I have ever seen!
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I don't actually agree, Bugatti's car have always been highly valued, IMO the recent VW faux Bugatti has not helped the marque, two different markets entirely

IF staying in business was a criteria then ALFA Romeo would command a lot more respect in the market place. Fine cars, long sporting history, but it the age of the buyers that is driving the market, younger crowd doesn't really understand or appreciate pre-war cars

 

in 1990 $60K is about $110K in todays money. Also a $60K Ferrari in 1990 likely did not get much love before going up for sale.
While I think that there is going to be more "freshened" Dino's flushed out soon thus effecting the supply side of the market in the next couple of years, a bubble does seem -to me- about to burst.
Besides unless we have a huge "event" like a 9-11 Bubbles rarely bust, they fizzle.
The still sexy Dino's seem no longer way under valued, but not teetering on the brink either.
Humble thoughts from a new guy. Hello all.

 

So maybe there is a silver lining as populist groupthink drives up prices for relatively common mass produced sixties sportscars, opportunity exists for the serious car connoiseur to find bargains with truly significant milestone cars of history. The same SCM I cited had an early 30's boattail STuTz for a mere ~$100K. In an era where a TR4A commands $50K, that seems like Christmas...

 

As long as most of the buyers are enthusiasts vs investors the prices will remain stable . 1990 was a long time ago much more recant was 2008 -2009 which was pretty much a collapse of the economy although it recovered (per government) and prices softened to fell during that time frame and recovered then shot past the recession prices very quickly
in most car markets ... now i do believe a natural breather is due where prices will remain stable to slightly down for a while...and that will result in some cars being sold slightly softer
possible in 2016 then 2015 ... some cars have tripled in the last 3 years this cannot continue

 

Try jumping-into and starting that Stutz to go for an ice cream run with the kids. Just give yourself a 30 minute heads-up and I guess you can do it. One of the problem with pre-war cars is that they are not particularly easy to operate. Fifties and sixties-era cars are perhaps not as user-friendly as 80s-90s-era cars, but they are surely more easily enjoyed than pre-wars. I believe that accounts for a lot of the demand for "fun" cars that were built/designed in the fifties and later eras. You can use them!

 

ha, speak for yourself, I use to crank up the 1913 Renault all the time ,just to go a few miles into town. IF you have the skill, a prewar car is joy to use and actually a lot more reliable than a "modern" no ECU or electronics to fail , just simple components easy to maintain

 

For the Keno Bros auction....following live feed...multiple looooowww bids and no sales (4.9 ss 225k/ #6 prototype Barchetta n.s. $550k) '58 P 356 coupe estimate 200-300k sold 110k......don't forget one of the Star Cars, Lambo Miura hammered 870k (850-1.6m esti) w/c they pulled-out all the stops with Val. Balbo up-hill climb from here,
more Ferrari's soon
Jack

 

Wait, you guys buy cars to make money?? Guess I'm doing it wrong, I just buy 'em to drive.

 

Ke...No sale not good. Being described as a 'disaster' by others. Not the first poor sale result this year either. Is this tail off at the end of the year evidence of a trend change? Or a blip?

 

I wouldn't call it a disaster. In fact, for a first time sale in NYC, a notoriously hard market, the turnout was surprisingly good and a lot of high quality people were in the room. The only disappointment was a lower than typical sell through rate. I think the issue was that they had some reserves set too high (which I would think they needed to do in order to secure the cars) and lots of cars were cars that had been on the market before. They were also hurt by the fact that the RM sale was moved as it would have brought more big buyers.

I don't think that this could be considered any indicator of the market. Look at RM in a few weeks and Scottsdale a few weeks after and you will get a real idea of what's happening. As for the Keno's, I'll happily attend more sales of theirs. I thought that they did some things extraordinarily well that other auction houses don't do. They'll get the hang of it and figure out how to raise the sell through rate.

 

Glad to see you enjoy such an automobile. Unfortunately, you are in the great minority, which is a large reason why many of these great early automobiles are not valued so highly.

 

FWIW, I prefer that the older cars remain not so highly valued, then they are owned by those can use and enjoy them not those interested in value.

 

I hear you. One of the most fun cars I have ever driven is a 1916 Packard 2-25 Twin Six runabout. A bit of a workout, but very engaging to say the least!

 

Likely late to the game. Bubble attracts lots of converted business plans (typical "final phase" of any bubble)... Guys who ran an investment fund to speculate in the classic car market then try to turn around liquidate some holdings at a bubble top is how I read it. Unless this is totally unrelated to that. Though, either way, seems a valid signal to me.

 

1922 Mercer Raceabout:

https://youtu.be/uIt98lB4bXk

 

https://practicalmotoring.com.au/car-news/spiralling-classic-car-prices-tempt-investors/

More amateurs walking in the front door

 

I will respectfully disagree.

Those two cars were not original cars. The Dual Cowl was essentially a rebody and has been whored out on the market.

I know of two duesenbergs that sold for 3.5 million private sale unrestored in the last 3 months and they sold in about 48 hours.

I have 10k sq ft filled with stuff from the 30s... and to be honest with you... I have only seen the prices increasing and increasing. Cars have gotten so expensive they are considering them to be art. The art deco cars are for sure in that category. There is a completely different crowd that buys these cars that are not on this site... but rest assured with as rare as these cars are and how important they are in history... they will always be collectible. Its not just the old timers buying these things anymore. I think more and more collections are actually branching out to the pre-war stuff.

Thats all just my opinion.