Is this a bubble?

Agree. The notion of waiting around for old Ferraris to get cheaper... not a great strategy.

 

Just a rough-cut back of the envelope guess that doesn't account for variants and fiberglass cars obviously being out of this equation:

Factoring out externalities, ya know, all other things being equal (they never really are).

Lets just say demand for a 206/246 is the same as a 308/328 and they made roughly four times as many 3x8s as they did 206/246. If a 246 is a 360k car then the 308, following this logic would be 1/4th the price or 80k.

My belief is that the 3x8 demand is stronger than the 206/246 and those who want a 3x8 are just now stepping up to the block. How many posters of the Dino were sold to young boys in the '70s compared to 308 posters in the '70s-'80s?

Just a guess.

 

Jon, I like it....that is a quotable quote, for sure.

Jeff

 

I am still sticking to my opinion that a driver quality freshly serviced 1981 Mondial 8 with 52,000 miles will never ever crack $100,000

(Big Red - if this EVER happens, I am buying you the biggest steak in your town!)

 

Okay, that made me laugh.

I don't think we are in a bubble to the extent some fear. I think it is more resetting what the base value is for most models after 7-8 years of a bad economy depressing values and an ever increasing realization that there will never again be cars like the Ferrari's of the 60's, 70's, 80's or 90's.

 

I used a scoring model of probabilities which included a number of potentially known cars via the registry, with a multiplier effect based on natural disasters etc....

If you are familiar with the KS curve , I tried to follow such a theory. It is by no means an Indepth study and not proven, just added some levers / triggers that are relative to see possibility of outcome.

Kolmogorov?Smirnov test - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So now the challenge is the mondial 8 , why aim so low?

 

15 years ago, used car dealers couldn`t give away 246 Dinos for USD 40K

 

Because there is nothing, absolutely nothing, lower on the Ferrari value scale than a Mondial 8. Even you realize that ("...why aim so low?")

When THEY bust $100,000 there is nothing left to speculate on.

 

I'm not waiting around I have a number that I'm comfortable with spending on a car right now things may change in the future if the right car comes along and I fall in love with it I may be at a point in my life where I feel comfortable spending six figures on a car.

 

At the moment.

Given the volatility of the market the Mondial and the 360's arcs may intersect someday.

 

You really think the market will one day value equally a manual 360 Modena and a Mondial 8?

 

I think 360s will be the car for most people who really want A Ferrari, and want to drive it! 3X8s (not Mondials) will be considered vintage, thus more valuable and less driven. Kind of sad really, but the 360s are just so much more useable and the prices are dropping. Of course this is only my opinion, based on.............not much more than my own observations.

 

Not a whole lot wrong with a good 6 speed manual 360.

Fantastic car for the money

 

Nicely said!

 

Not a whole lot wrong with a good 6 speed manual 360.

Fantastic car for the money

Agreed!

 

You get old enough and things stop surprising you.

Not saying that it will just that given the Bizzaro World of Ferrari values that it could.

 

Very possible.

Ultimately Mondial 8's will probably stay relatively cheap for the reasons we all know. But 360s are very tech-laden cars, and the parts costs/technology obsolescence may make them cost-prohibitive to maintain. I don't think any of us really know how modern cars will age over the decades - it's as much about electronics as it is the steel/glass of the classic era.

I can imagine the 360 price curve continuing to fall, depending on the quality of Ferrari's spare parts network. On the plus side, there are 18,000 of them (if you include Modena/CS/Spider), so tons of parts cars.

I would take an F430 over a 360, but in either case I'd want a Ferrari CPO warranty and would try to dump the car when that was done.

 

As long as there are 458s, 430s and 360s will suffer valuewise.

 

I agree, but I'm biased - the 458 is the first post-F40 Ferrari I really like.

 

Among the V8s certainly.

 

I too love the 458 but on the pre-owned market, they're still out of my reach! When's the replacement due? That usually starts the price falling on the outgoing model, look at the great deals on 430s! I'll wait for the 458s IF I live long enough!

 

Aside from a F40 or 288GTO, a 430 3-pedal is the only other Ferrari I'd really love to have...sitting beside my 308 of course (and maybe my 308 will be 2x the value of the 430!)

 

Ferrari 3X8s go to war? Stupid warmongers

Now fire...some could be listed as suicides

 

???

25 years ago (1989), 246 Dinos were $150-$200K cars.

They did drop quite a bit after that, but I don't think they were in danger of being given away for $40K.

 

I agree. It's an odd argument to make considering those 12k cars was spread over a decade. Porsche built that many 911's EACH YEAR in the 70s & 80s, and it sure hasn't seemed to lessen their trajectory as a collectible car.

Additionally, how many cars are in countries where there's huge import taxes, meaning geographic arbitrage limitations will keep them there forever? And as others have touched on, how many were destroyed, converted, or otherwise removed from the marketplace? By the time you wittle down the number to reflect only good cars in the US that are available to purchase, I doubt there's more than a few hundred - perhaps 20% of which are even on the market at any one time. The reality is there's not a vast supply of 308's - let alone nice ones that are actually for sale.