Is this a bubble? | Page 15 | FerrariChat

Is this a bubble?

Discussion in '308/328' started by slvr993, Jan 8, 2015.

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  1. greg328

    greg328 F1 Rookie

    Nov 17, 2003
    4,209
    Austin, TX USA
    Full Name:
    Greg
    Were there ever any dry sump QVs? I don't think so... ??

    Anybody care to comment on the various 328s and their predictions for future values? Don't see much of a mention of 328s in this thread.. :)

    Greg
     
  2. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
    12,084
    FRANCE


    A steel carbed car at 300 K€ before the end of this year? Sorry, but I have never read anything so preposterous in the last five years. At the present, their asked price is between 50 and 60 k€ in France, and these do not sell. See what Steven says in post # 343. Multiplying the prices by five until the end of this year is just plainly ridiculous. Sure, there will be hordes of little green men, their flying saucers parked outside, waiting to buy at that price.
    Let’s be at least “somewhat” reasonable in our assumptions.

    Rgds
     
  3. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
    12,084
    FRANCE
    No: dry sump QVs do not exist; unless someone has made an expensive one-off, but factory made dry-sump QVs: DOES NOT EXIST.

    Discussed the 328 subject again this week-end between french enthusiasts: we agreed to consider that we seem to be seing a bit of logic, more or less, which would be, for the time being:

    Drivers: 65.000 euros;
    Nice, clean cars, reasonably documented, 50.000 miles (80.000 kms) 70/75.000 euros
    Very nice, impeccable history and service, about 40.000 miles: 80.000/85.000 euros
    Exceptional cars, low miles, impeccable history and service: 90/100.000 euros.

    Rgds
     
  4. greg328

    greg328 F1 Rookie

    Nov 17, 2003
    4,209
    Austin, TX USA
    Full Name:
    Greg
    Thanks Nerofer. Of course, the values you mention pertain to the EU; there seems to be different valuation for the U.S. Market. Is it true that 328 GTSs are more highly valued than GTBs in EU, due to rarity? And vice versa in the US?
    Greg


    Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk
     
  5. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
    12,084
    FRANCE
    I would not say "due to rarity", because the GTS is not "that rare" here: we have more GTBs than you have in the US, where a 328 GTB is indeed a rare animal; but the proportion in France is nevertheless about "3 GTSs for 2 GTBs", so the "GTS" is still more numerous, but not by much.
    When new, the GTS sold with a slight premium above the GTB: at the begining of 1988, a "dry", no option GTS sold for 440.000 francs against 420.000 for a GTB; this 4% margin seem to have survived, but 4% can easily be canceled by the condition of the car.
    Another difference is that there is no premium for late model cars, i.e the "89" do not sell way above the others (about 20% in the US, I believe?)

    Rgds
     
  6. bigodino

    bigodino F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Apr 29, 2004
    13,167
    The Netherlands
    Full Name:
    Peter den Biggelaar
    It all depends on condition. I don't know the 308s for sale in France that you're refering to so I can't judge if they're priced correctly. I also don't know the condition of some 308s for sale now that are asking 125k and (way) up. Only time will tell who's right but I wouldn't judge anyone, including those who think they'll be 300k by the end of the year.

    Now it might be an indication of a bubble when even barn finds are going to demand 300k, like the totally rusted 246 Dino that was auctioned last year.
     
  7. st@ven

    st@ven F1 Rookie

    Aug 4, 2008
    3,318
    Germany
    Full Name:
    Steven
    Posted in another thread but might be worth discussing here as well. These numbers reflect the current situation on Autoscout, the largest single site for advertising in Europe The site does NOT contain UK market.
    All pricing n Euro's

    the table shows the average prices from June 2014, october 2014 and January 2015


    new update, now one table with the numbers of June'14, October'14 and Jan '15. Again all prices in Euro's. Read as average for Jun-14, Oct-14, Jan-15
    us cars avarage price 36600, 38314, 48270
    us cars avarage minus top/bottum 36220, 38175, 48580

    euro cars average price 47400, 46200, 91360
    euro cars avarage minus top/bottum 50780, 50460, 77050

    gts average 44000 48400 66520
    gts average minus top/bottum 43700 48000 63625
    gtb average 47600 45000 96870
    gtb average minus top/bottum 45700 44900 87325

    gtsi/gtbi average 37000 41000 56700
    gtsi/gtbi average minus top/bottum 37000 40500 57000
    gts/gtb QV average 51000 50000 61475
    gts/gtb QV average minus top/bottum 50600 503200 62300

    average mileage 63000 64200 56000
    highest mileage 150000 140000 143000

    cheapest 28900, 28900, 35000
    most expensive 112000, 80000, 235000


    average overall 44800 47724( 107% increase) 74950(167% increase over June)


    available cars 55, 58, 37


    I know this is a strange mix. But it is always and therfore the real value of the numbers is always about the same.


    compared to june 2014 for Europe,
    overall price for a 308 increased with 67%
    sharp rise in price price of a GTS model (51%)
    Even sharper price rise of a GTB model (203%)
    price of a GTsi/bi model increased with 53%,
    price of a GTS/b QV model increased with 23%

    cheapest car is 21% more expensive,
    the most expensive went up 209% ( btw, in both case it was a euro vetro )



    Reason this whole thread started:

    Steel dry sump pricing, averages.

    June 2014: 72900 ( only one available)
    October 2014: 57900 ( 3 available)
    Januari 2015: 105000 (5 available)
     
  8. st@ven

    st@ven F1 Rookie

    Aug 4, 2008
    3,318
    Germany
    Full Name:
    Steven
    what's special about the dry sump steel cars until april 1979? The dy sump was produced until end of 1980 I think so why is this april 1979 now already mentionned twice?
     
  9. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
    12,084
    FRANCE
    Well there is a least one thing I know, Peter: I can tell you this for certain: if the market for the 328s (NOT 308…) is above 150 K€ at the end of the year, well as much as I love my two cars, and I really love these, but off they go: I sell, and at about 15% under market, just to be sure they clear in a few days.
    150 K€ is my own limit, and I shall stick to it, because that level of value would change the relationship I have with the cars, and I simply do not want that. So “for sale” they will be; and who knows? With a little of luck the market will then crash, I’ll bought the two back, and I would then even be with some change left to spare.
    As we say in old French “les arbres ne montent pas jusqu’au ciel” (= trees do not climb right to the sky): such a fast climb after years of stability does not bode well.

    Rgds.
     
  10. 308 GTB QV

    308 GTB QV Karting

    Jan 19, 2010
    209
    There is no doubt that prices are up on 3x8, but it's good to have in mind that what is often referred to are asking prices. I look more at prices of cars disappearing from Mobile / Autoscout, rather than at prices of cars being added there. My conclusion over the last months of good original European examples:
    Vetroresina: €150 k
    Carburetors € 75-80k
    QV € 60-65k
    2V injected € 55-65k

    What surprises me a bit is the small gap between good 2V injected and QVs. Maybe buyers looks more to the condition of the car than a year slightly more quicker car.
     
  11. furmano

    furmano Three Time F1 World Champ

    Jul 22, 2004
    32,215
    Colorado
    Full Name:
    Furman
    Just shooting from the hip, convert Euro's to Dollars and I think that represents where US 328 market will settle.

    However, I think dealers have gotten a little ahead of themselves in the US 328 GTS market. It seems like every 328, regardless of condition is bumping up to the $100k mark. But I don't think those cars are sitting so it's kind of hard to figure out where things will settle over the next few months.

    -F
     
  12. stonker

    stonker Formula Junior

    Jul 14, 2012
    420
    Surrey UK
    Full Name:
    Stonker
    I bought my 308 primarily because I'd always hankered after owning a Ferrari and not as an investment but seeing prices of good cars nearly double in around 2 years did push me into acting or be priced out of the market. I think that other potential buyers will also decide to jump in before prices are out of reach and this could also lead to prices rising. My Alfa 1750 GTV has more than tripled in 5 years and the Giulia SS that I used to own is now worth up to £100,000 according to Hagerty so prices of all classics are rising and I doubt there will be a crash as prices have been rising even during the recession. Also in the UK new pension laws that come into affect shortly mean that when someone retires they can now draw their entire pension pot to spend how they please. I wonder how much of this money will go on classic cars? And there is no inheritance tax on classic cars so this could be another motivation to invest.
    I really hope my 308 also triples in the next 5 years but who knows the signs are good but we'll just have to wait and see.
     
  13. Bullfighter

    Bullfighter Two Time F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Jan 26, 2005
    22,607
    Gates Mills, Ohio
    Full Name:
    Jon
    I was looking at the listing for the white/tan 328 over at Symbolic Motors (local to me in San Diego), with a $99K asking. It looks decent, but hardly a show car, and in colors that are going to make it harder to tell than the blue-chip red/tan '89 GTS:

    1987 Used Ferrari 328 GTS at Symbolic Motor Car Co Serving San Diego, IID 13033707

    Sort of the same here. A red 308 GTS QV has been on my to-buy list forever, my favorite of the 308 range and favorite Ferrari below the $500K range. My sense is that prices will continue to rise gradually and I didn't want to find myself in the "Dino trap", where a car I'd always liked was suddenly priced like a house.

    I would like to see the cars rise, not so much to turn a profit (because ultimately I probably won't, given service costs, refurbishment, etc.), but because the 308 GTS is one of the all time sports car icons and deserves a bit more respect in the classic car arena.
     
  14. GatorFL

    GatorFL Moderator
    Moderator Owner

    Nov 18, 2005
    17,011
    Wellington, FL
    Full Name:
    Duane
    I've noticed a few dealers are dipping into mid-range 3x8's but asking top dollar now. Go look at Marshall Goldman's inventory. I've always considered them to have some of the nicest inventory out there but if you look at the pics of the 328's they have now, I'd consider them all mid-range. I bet a year ago they wouldn't have touched these cars.
     
  15. Gilles82

    Gilles82 Formula Junior

    Oct 14, 2009
    474
    Maranello (Mo) Italy
    1989 Ferrari 328 GTS | The Andrews Collection 2015 | RM AUCTIONS

    "The 328 is widely considered by tifosi to be one of the most reliable Ferraris to have ever left Maranello, and they are also considered to be excellent drivers by enthusiasts, not only for their exciting performance but also their wonderful road manners and relative comfort. The 328, truly one of the best cars produced in the Fiat era, is considered by many to be the best car for a first-time Ferrari owner, and the Andrews’ example will surely not disappoint."
     
  16. GatorFL

    GatorFL Moderator
    Moderator Owner

    Nov 18, 2005
    17,011
    Wellington, FL
    Full Name:
    Duane
    A lot of retouching on those 3 photos.
     
  17. vaccarella

    vaccarella Formula 3

    Apr 16, 2011
    2,291
    Full Name:
    Paul
    And a lot of retouching on those words. It's called advertising ;)
     
  18. Bullfighter

    Bullfighter Two Time F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Jan 26, 2005
    22,607
    Gates Mills, Ohio
    Full Name:
    Jon
    A year ago they were cheaper than 360s.
     
  19. Spirit of Italy

    Spirit of Italy Karting

    Jan 3, 2015
    143
    Norway
    Full Name:
    Hans S
    LOL

    Lets get together and have a drink at the end of the year. If i'm wrong, drinks are on me...
    Will be at the Ferrari meet in France in June, welcome to discuss my Preposterous predictions for the year.
     
  20. Member

    Member Karting

    Jan 1, 2015
    67
    Full Name:
    Sam
    Many people write here that a good Vetroresina costs 150.000 Euro but i dont find one for sale for this money. I pay it when i can become a good condition car. The prices for a Vetroresina with the Note 2 costs in this time 175.000 Euro - 200.000 Euro not less than this price. I think of the end of this year comes the prices of minimum 250.000 Euro or much more.
     
  21. Spirit of Italy

    Spirit of Italy Karting

    Jan 3, 2015
    143
    Norway
    Full Name:
    Hans S
    Approx april / may 1979 Ferrari changed the original design "CENTER" engine lid support for gas struts, one either side.
    The collectors are wanting the original design which goes back to the first fiberglass GTB cars in 1975.
     
  22. Falcon

    Falcon Formula 3

    Aug 19, 2008
    1,304
    New England Region
    Full Name:
    Falcon
    Here are some of this weekends sales; Lamborghini Urraco $126,500, 88 Lamborghini Countach $467,500, 76 Porsche 930 $143,000 and Ferrari 512BB $ 511,500. Based on these prices the 308 and 328 are still under valued.
     
  23. _Yves_

    _Yves_ Karting

    Oct 5, 2008
    91
    Shanghai
    Full Name:
    Yves Dumoulin
    Bruno, Spirit Of Italy is in the classic car trade... Have you EVER heared one of those people say prices would go down? Of course not...
     
  24. _Yves_

    _Yves_ Karting

    Oct 5, 2008
    91
    Shanghai
    Full Name:
    Yves Dumoulin
    Or Urraco and 930 are too expensive :)
     
  25. Bullfighter

    Bullfighter Two Time F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Jan 26, 2005
    22,607
    Gates Mills, Ohio
    Full Name:
    Jon
    #375 Bullfighter, Jan 19, 2015
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2015
    Agreed. You can still get a great 308 for well under $100K.

    I've only known one Urraco owner, and he said it drove like a truck. I'm guessing its value was pulled up by being of that era and a Lamborghini... and rare? Or famous from the Top Gear trip to the lap dancing club in Slough?

    I am surprised to see the Boxer edge past the Countach, although it may have been a better condition/more original car in this case.

    The 930... I don't know, I've always been more of a Ferrari guy, but air-cooled Porsches are the most driveable classics available. And a 930 had supercar performance back in the day. It doesn't feel overpriced. If I had more garage space and more time to look after old cars, it would be in my top ten list, for sure.
     

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