Jenson and his ability to repeat as WDC...Editorial

Why The 2010 Odds Are Stacked Up Against Jenson
Wednesday 21st October 2009 - PlanetF1.com


No sooner had the World Championship been won on Sunday than Jenson Button was looking ahead to 2010 and the possibility of becoming the first Briton ever to win back-to-back titles. "This team is not a one-hit wonder. And neither am I," he proclaimed.


But before you start putting your money on Jenson winning the title again, here a few reasons why it might not happen for Jenson next year...


1) Because it rarely happens. Of the 31 different World Champions in the history of the sport, just eight have won back-to-back titles. A championship is a gruelling, eight-month event. The pressure and demands levied during a title-chasing season inevitably take a toll. Some drivers are bound to relax, subconsciously at least, after winning a championship. Every driver dreams of being the World Champion but how many dream of being a two-time champion? Button will naturally declare he is as committed as ever to the cause, but, As The Times notes, 'It is no criticism, however, to say that Button has struck many as someone for whom one title may well be enough.' And history is on the side of the doubters.


2) History also declares that Button will almost certainly have to improve on his best-ever season in F1 to win the title again. Compared to past champions, he has been given a relatively easy ride this season: in every year since 2002, the driver that finished second in the championship has collected more points than Button currently possesses (albeit with one race remaining). And just how realistic is it to expect him to improve?...


3) Not very, because it is all-but certain that Brawn will not start the season with the sort of advantage that they began 2009 with and saw Button win six of the opening seven races. Not only was their 2009 charger was the product of almost twelve months work after Ross Brawn called a halt to work on the 2008 car in April of that year but it was also the child of Honda's considerable (and possibly unparalleled) resource. One estimate is that £500m was spent developing the car eventually badged as the BGP001. The downsized Brawn team just cannot afford a similar outlay. "Undoubtedly this car was born with much greater resources than we have now," acknowledged Ross Brawn on Sunday night.


4) And unless their team leader pulls another rabbit out of the hat, neither will Brawn start the season with the sort of advantage that they accrued via a crafty reading of the rules to pack a two-tier diffuser on to the back of their car. By the half-way stage of the season, every car on the grid was packing a similar device - at which point Button's run of victories dried up...


5) Rubens Barrichello's expected departure is also bad news for Button. On the hand, he'll have a (perceived-to-be) faster team-mate to contend with in the incoming Nico Rosberg, and on the other Barrichello's famed prowess for developing a car is bound to be missed.


6) While Brawn are expected to be weaker in 2010, there's every expectation that McLaren and Ferrari - both of whom began focusing on next season a few months ago - will be far stronger. Anyone who doesn't regard their drivers as the favourites for 2010 is either not aware of their pedigree or the size of their budgets.


7) No matter his status as reigning World Champion, Button is not the best driver in F1. Such is the ability of Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen, he's probably not even the third best. He won this year's championship because he drove superbly in a car that was far better than any other on the grid until the mid-season point. Without that advantage, fourth place in the Drivers' Standing may be the summit of his realistic ambition for 2010.


The 2010 Odds: Jenson Is The 9/1 Sixth Favourite For The Title


PG

 

Thing is it's a hard one to call IMO because when Button slumped Rubens started to pick it up, the other cars started to catch up yes, but still the car on pole in Brazil was a Brawn.

I don't think Button has a contract yet, although I know he stated he most certainly wants to drive for Brawn.

However for him to achieve back to back WDC is a big ask, but with Ross Brawn in his armour he has a very good weapon to increase the odds.

 

Agreed. Its about funding and how well the car gets developed that will determine this and luck. It can be done but without much analysis one can see the odds are against it from the outset.

 

I agree with the article that the advantage the Brawn had at the beginning of the year will not be there next season. As Nico is presummed a faster driver, it will be most interesting to see how that pairing works. If Nico had a better car, I think he would have been a real contender this year. The ones not to even remotely rule out will be Red Bull - Horner says they will come back stronger. Another interesting pairing there as Vettel will have to assert himself at the beginning of the season.

Carol

 

Oh Jens. Dear Boy.

 

"Probably" not even third best? He doesn't break the Top 6. And I don't think he'll finish in the Top 6 next year. Or probably ever again.

 

Brawn will be the best midfield cars out there next year.

 

Yep.

He will place well a few times next year, but not many. The Brawn will not be the ass kicker next year it was this season, and McLaren and Ferrari won't drop the ball again.

 

Ferrari and Mclaren will be back on top next year.
Ferrari admitted to halting development of this years car half way through the year to concentrate on 2010 and I'm assuming Mclaren did the same.
Brawn literally spent itself out on this season and of all the places for Nico to go, this was not it.
Williams has survived through thick and thin.
We'll see if Brawn is cut from the same cloth.

 

+1

JB was the luckiest person on the planet, and he nearly threw it away.
Pete

 

Why is there such an incertainty about J. Button title?!

Everybody's seems to forget that there isn't a champion without a good car, or even the best car. That happens every year since 1950. Fangio drove the best car when he was at Mercedes, Clark drove the best in 63 and 65,........, Senna always drove the best car, etc...

Supposes it was Rubens Barrichello who has winning the title this year, would it cause such a negative feeling ?

 

This F1 snobbery is irritating! Button did the business this year he won the most races scored the most points! Isn't that how the championship is won!?

His driving at the the start season was sublime, and at the Brazilian Grand Prix he was awesome!

Start of the year his future was uncertain!
Brawn were a new team!

I mean as a team they rose to the challenge!

I have the utmost respect for Jensen and the Brawn team and as far as i am concerned he deserved the Championship, He is World Champion and should be recognized for his achievement!

Can they do it again YES!

 

I don't think the question is about 2009 and if they deserved it. They've proven they can do it. The question is: can they do it again? I think not even the odds are against them, but also the fact that other teams have caught up even in a season without testing. Let's see what winter testing and the new designs bring. The resourses at Brawn don't hold much promiss against those at Ferrari, McLaren et al.

 

Don't get me wrong I like Button, but I think this is a little bit like Villenueves WDC in 1997. The best car won this season. I don't mind Button won it since he's had some bad luck over the years.

As for Brawn being a brand new team...please don't start that BS. It has pretty much the same people in the team as they did in 2008 under the name Honda. The only new thing is the name and some people got the sack.

EDIT: Would like to say that his driving in the beginning of the season was very good and flawless.

 

+1

Nice to read some sense.

 

"As for Brawn being a brand new team...please don't start that BS. It has pretty much the same people in the team as they did in 2008 under the name Honda. The only new thing is the name and some people got the sack."


Honda a factory funded team / Brawn Mercedes a private team that had to make cuts! Whats not new about that??????

 

I get what you are saying, but... I have my own opinion and thoughts that disagree.

Yes, most points, most races won etc... that is how you win a championship. That is the technical way. However, it is more important to see understand how he got there. Someone else posted an equation in another thread and it was brilliant... (ill probably butcher it but here goes)

good, talented, skilled driver (but not incredible driver) + great car + 7 race lead = championship.


Lets break that down...

Good talented skilled driver. NOT incredible driver. I don't think many people would really say that he is a Kimi, or hammi (pains me to say that ), Schuey, Massa... etc... He is a very good driver, but there are still some heavy hitters on the grid...

The car with some clever engineering and reading of rule book allowed them to have an advantage over the big players. Good for them! however, will they be able to do it twice? Is Ferrari and the rest of the gang really gonna let that slip or for the next few years are they really going to scrutinize the rule book and push the rules as far as possible? Will anyone be able to compete with ferrari or Mc team when they started developing there car for next year mid season. Brawn admitted his budget is smaller for next year and that honda footed the bill for last year....

7 race lead... pretty hard to blow a championship when you have a 7 race lead. the first 7 races were like beating up 8 year olds... Also, race strategy with a 7 race lead is different than fighting for the championship on the last lap of the last race of the year.

So I wouldn't call the doubters of Button and example of "f1 snobbery." There are some serious questions and doubts that are on the table. There is much more to look at in predicting the future than a points total from last year.

Is it possible for him to win a WDC sure... is it likely? No.

Having said all of this... I am really glad to see a man achieve his dream... a man who took a pay cut and even went on top gear and said he would trade everything for a WDC... its great to see that he did it. A shinning example.

excuse the typos and grammar... its 4 am...

 

I agree with everything that article says. After a meteoric start to the season, it would be a fair statement to say Button limped home to the title. I don't begrudge him the Championship--he did it--but had the results been flip-flopped, I would feel more strongly about Brawn carrying momentum through to next season and his chances for a repeat. His chances in 2010 are less about him and more about Brawn and the other teams. Ferrari and McLaren are sure to be up front--McLaren has already begun their resurgence mid-season. Red Bull is obviously a contender. Who knows what Force India will be like in 2010? I think the most important issues raised were these:

But this is win-win for us, the fans, as the grid looks to get even more competitive in 2010.

 

Was he not racing against Hammi, Alonso, Kimi etc etc???

You talk like they didn't show up in the first 7 races, they were all there Mclaren Ferrari etc etc.

He stood head and shoulders above them all as did the team,both in skill, discipline and attitude!

 

Honda COMPLETELY funded the car in 2008. They only had to source an engine which Mercedes kindly had. The car wasn't really developed during the season (wasn't needed, nor was there money for it).

The car wasn't privately funded since it cost almost 500 million US to develop, the people fired where the ones that werent needed.

They where technically there, but their cars where rubbish so you can't really count them. Its exactly the same as saying 'Lewis won the WDC last year, he even managed to beat Button!'. Button didn't have much of a car either.

The Ferrari and Mclaren where developed later (to late) in the season to really make a difference. Actually...they did make a difference. In each of the races where Button didn't do so well there where different winners, helping Button not to let his main rivals get closer.

The renault wasn't developed at all. Alonso scored only 15 points since Button's last win.

 

You are missing the whole point of F1!

Think some people need to start watching A1.

 

The Brawn was head and shoulders above the competition the first 7 races of the season. Brawn found a loophole and exploited to the foremost extent.

In the last 9 races ever since the other teams caught up and approached the capability of the Brawn Button hasn't won a single race and had only one podium!

He had a good drive in Brazil but Hamilton started 4 positions behind and finished 2 positions ahead of Button in the inferior McLaren.

IMHO Button will not win a single race next year much less a 2xWDC.

Regards,

 

Yes Anthony. He was racing against them, and yes all the major teams were present and racing.

Maybe you read over the part where I mentioned the Brawn team maximizing the rules and creating a better car than everyone else. It plain and simple if he didn't have a superior car, he wouldn't have won. he has been in a sub-par car for how long? and where has he been finishing all these years? Yes the car makes a massive difference... thats why Kimi, hammi, alonso etc... all were mid-packers at best this year. The driver can only do so much.

Moving forward. If those teams created a competitive car by midseason... Brawn still had a 7 race lead. And again, racing from a massive lead is called protecting a championship not racing for the championship. (If this sounds foreign to you revist Kimi winning the 07 championship... Last race and how he came from behind... then you can even reference Hammis driving in Brazil last year.) When you race for a championship you take risks, when you protect your championship there is much more strategy and calculated risks taken. Or in simple terms you have much more to lose. However, by mid season, most of the big players scrapped the current years car and moved on to developing next years car. So they kinda tossed in the towel.

Im saying that all of this lead to a perfect storm for JB to win. So to expect him to win or even say he has a "good chance" at another when only 8 others have won back to backs is a little strong. And my point is really just in scratching the surface... we haven't even brought up how lucky Brawn was that the mercedes motor just happened to fit in there car... one of the fastest engines on the track took little work to adapt to there HONDA chassis... then the fact that honda paid the engineers for last season... and who knows whats in store for this season. Who knows if brawns engineers will still be there or lured away to other high paying teams...

Again, I respect the man and of course the team. They did a great job. They out "thunk" engineered, out strategized Ferrari and Mercedes and Renault. He out drove everyone this season.

My point is the 2010 season is very likely to be a much different season than the 2009 season... just like 2009 was much different than 2008.

 

+1

 

Don you know I'am a Ham fan, however the thing is Button didn't crumble when it mattered, Brazil was the test and 14 to 5th and nailing the WDC was it.

Ok his way of protecting his lead in the later half of the season not exciting, but because his wins were at the start does not mean thay count any different than if they were at the end.

Ham's do or die wanting to win every race blew it for him once, and nearly twice! exciting and masterfull I'll admit.

Ham WDC in Brazil struggling to 5th wasn't exactly as good as Buttons was it..

F1 is fickle your as good as your last race.