Jim- Lusso is not a $250K car yet!! | FerrariChat

Jim- Lusso is not a $250K car yet!!

Discussion in 'Vintage (thru 365 GTC4)' started by geno berns, Jan 18, 2009.

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  1. geno berns

    geno berns F1 Rookie

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    #1 geno berns, Jan 18, 2009
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2009
    Gooding Lusso : Nicely restored with out the super expensive tools or books, sold for $704K. Not bad in this "2009 Economic Space Odyssey"....
     
  2. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    #2 Napolis, Jan 18, 2009
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2009
    When you're done sniffing glue note the price the car hammered for 640K. 60K under low estimate. Seller net was 600K. A bit down from the 2MM one hammered at which netted that seller 1.8MM.

    Before you start spinning keep in mind that I said GTL's will drop 80% from the high tick (2MM). So far they've dropped about 65%. Won't be long.

    In May 2008 a GTL sold at RM for $1,702,250. Last night a GTL hammered at RM for 550K.

    Spin that.
     
  3. John Vardanian

    John Vardanian F1 Rookie

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    Jim,

    I do not know Gene from Adam but I believe that everyone is entitled to speak and no one deserves to be talked down to. Please stop your arrogant tone.

    john
     
  4. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    So you're predicting a decent Lusso will be $400k at the bottom of this cycle? Seems about right, or maybe even a bit high, to me.

     
  5. Tenney

    Tenney F1 Rookie
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    Or the McQueen Lusso at $400K ...?
     
  6. geno berns

    geno berns F1 Rookie

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    #6 geno berns, Jan 18, 2009
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2009
    Jim-
    I am not sniffing glue, just stating a fact. I don't mean to be argumentative, you are my hero after all! Unless you are referring to the Steve McQueen (Regalia) Lusso that sold for $2.3MM (not a good comp), the Lusso that sold at the Ferrari Factory RM Sale sold for 759 Euro or just over $1.1MM based on the currency conversion at that time. Still don't know why it brought that high of a number.
    Here is the link : http://www.rmauctions.com/auction-results-overview.cfm?SaleCode=FF08
    Most every one knows the GTL even in late 2008 was a $500K-$800K car at best depending on the quality of the car. The rough ones were more like $350K. My friend bought the Reggie Jackson Lusso at the RM sale in Monterey last August for $770K, will be at Cavallino in next week. The buyer at any auction always builds in the commission is their bidding process. It is a cost applied to the end sale price, hence the RM Auction results spell out all prices inclusive of the commission payed by the buyer. Therefore the $640K achieved at Gooding for the GTL is more like $704K. Bill Noon stated that is was a much better car than the RM car that sold this past weekend for $550K. I do see that the prices are not as strong as last year, especially at the Bonhams and RM auction in 2009. Many cars are down 20-30%. Gooding prices seemed to be stronger. No 65% drop in sight so far!

    Gene.


     
  7. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ
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    #7 joe sackey, Jan 19, 2009
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2009
    Jim:

    Where on earth are you getting that the market for Lussos was $2 million US???? That one that sold for $2 mil has NOTHING to do with the market. It was an anomaly of epic proportions, and the car's restorer Mike Regalia has already been on here explaining same to you. I guess he will have to come back and do so again. Comparing other Lussos to Mc Queen's car isn't a valid comparison and the Mc Queen car in my estimation does not even participate in the market. It is above the clouds upon Mt Everest.

    Back down to earth and here in the trade, I think the current market is $400k for the roaches to $700k to the Platinum award-winning cars.

    Jim you're also being grossly unfair in not stating that the Lusso to which you ascribe a $1.7 million US sale number is the VERY FIRST production Lusso built by the works to Competizione spec and supplied new to Jacques Swaters, ONE OF THREE such Comp cars. Cmon Jim, play fair. This is not a standard production Lusso such as the cars that sold this weekend! Youre making an apples to oranges comparison such as you have with the Mc Queen car. Some might refer to this as "spinning". I have never seen ANY standard Lusso sell over $775,000.

    Anyway, I thought the numbers this past weekend on the cars we love such as the Enzo, the GTO & the Lussos showed good health, the economy notwithstanding.



    .
     
  8. geno berns

    geno berns F1 Rookie

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    John,

    Thanks.

    I think Jim means nothing by it. He is just stressing his point. It's good to have his view as any others on this forum. Heated discussions could be good some times.

    Gene.

     
  9. trkevin

    trkevin Formula Junior

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    At the RM Maranelllo auction on the 18th of May 2008 two 250 GT Lusso's were auctioned:

    - 250 GT Lusso s/n 4213 GT (Ecurie Francorchamps-race history) sold for €1,000,000 + commission = €1,100,000

    - 250 GT Lusso s/n 5143 GT (REALLY HIGH quality restored example) sold for €690,000 + commission = €759,000

    Best regards

    -Kevin
     
  10. cabaynes

    cabaynes Karting

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    I'm not taking sides on the matter but because the thread included a direct reference to Jim himself, I feel he has every right to respond in the manner he did. Being "called out" per say in a public forum because the thread starter feels the need to prove he is correct would aggravate me as well.
     
  11. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ
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    Thanks. This comparo makes my point perfectly. Look at the difference in numbers between a standard production road car and another car with special history or configuration...
     
  12. toto70_0

    toto70_0 F1 Rookie

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    5143 Was sold well because, the car was done with passion and love!!!!!!!
    And if a old Ferrari mechanic comes to you to thank you for showing a car like he made them in those days with tears in his eyes, he actually told me if he looked in the enginecompartment he felt 50 years younger.

    That is what is all about. EMOTION
     
  13. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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  14. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    #14 Napolis, Jan 19, 2009
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2009
    Yes that's what I think. Other's don't which is what makes horse races. One RM Lusso Hammered at 550K on Sat so we're not far away but as the collapse is really only about 4 months old and collectibles are a lagging indicator as opposed to the Stock Market which is a leading indicator I think before it's over I agree that they will go a bit lower than 400K. I also think ratty ones will sell for about 250K.

    The great part of this to me is that those that Love and use these cars don't care if the market collapses in the short to medium term as they won't be selling and those who would Love to buy one at a price many more car lovers can afford price will get a chance. Numbers like 800K for a GTL are thrown around here like they are nothing. I think that's a LOT of money for many who Love cars.

    The one I would have bought and still may is the Sebring MG which NS @ 75K. David said 75k was close, and for a car that finished 4thOA in class at Sebring, is totally road legal and eligible for any great Vintage Rally seems pretty cool to me.

    http://auction.goodingco.com/product.g&c?pid=251

    Gene

    :)
     
  15. elads

    elads Formula Junior

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    If one compares 5143 to the recent Arizona sales, we see a 30% drop in less then 9 months.
    The trend is pronounced.
    I dont think Jim or anyone was forecasting at drop of 80 pct in 9 months, no asset behaves like that. But given recent price action, one could certainly see that happen. Not a 100% certainty but a probabilistic assessment.

    Of course there will always be a qualification on cars, as they are largely not a homogenous asset (much like houses, but unlike, stocks). So if one wants to argue that this or that was different, but overall trend is clear - i think.

    elad
     
  16. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    I'm predicting down 80% over 3 years from last May and I agree the trend so far is down about 30%.
     
  17. mdsaxon

    mdsaxon Karting

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    +1
     
  18. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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  19. mjw599

    mjw599 Formula Junior
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    Neither do I, but I've watched Geno consistently and blatantly spinning high sales as the norm and regular pricing, so much so that one can not help but think he is connected as a dealer trying to preserve past pricing that was favorable to sellers. I appreciate JG having the where-with-all to call it as he sees them and share his informed opinion.
     
  20. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    #20 Napolis, Jan 19, 2009
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2009
    For the record the RM (Friday) Lusso hammered at 500K, 550 with buyers commission, 154K less than the Gooding Lusso (Saturday) Geno referenced with buyers commission apples to apples as per Bill Noon post #29 here:

    http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=228736

    For the record Geno and I are Buds. We totally disagree but we are Buds.
     
  21. geno berns

    geno berns F1 Rookie

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    Quite the opposite. Please read my posts. I always object when one uses the high tick as a good comparative to what a certain car's worth may be. I think most have already agreed that Jim tends to use super high comps to stress his point on what a car sold and than bases his calculations on cars that sold for numbers in the stratosphere to create an allusion that there has been a 65% drop in value. This is a public forum and any one can point out a fact, a person or a past comment as long as it's done in a proper and manner with out being abrasive. Jim has stated that the Lusso in a few minutes will be a $250K car, I do not see that happening. With fear already "built in" (term usually used in talking about the equity markets) buyers of the Lusso or other vintage cars should not be paying $550K or $704K for these cars. right? I am not trying to preserve a thing and I am not in the business to sell vintage cars I just own a few for my enjoyment. I am just looking to be fair about this topic and stick to the facts. I agree with many that these autos are down 20%-30% and may come down some more. It's all good, I am not trying to be difficult...

     
  22. Vintage V12

    Vintage V12 Formula 3

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    #22 Vintage V12, Jan 19, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 19, 2009
    Geno: Your Lusso will be beautiful when it's done and you will know what you have. Better then putting the money in the bank or some 401k fund. To me it looks like the cars are back to prices 2 years ago. Take that 275gtb 4 cam that sold for 825 or so. That same level of car was available at Fantasy Junction 24 months ago at that price. Not too bad. That 2 million dollar Mcqueen lusso and that 2 million dollar Lynx restored 275gtb 4 cam were a fluke and should not be used as a reference.
     
  23. mdsaxon

    mdsaxon Karting

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    #23 mdsaxon, Jan 19, 2009
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2009
    I have read posts by all of the industry guys on here, as a group, 'spinning' things toward a positive trend which, obviously, is not the direction of the market for ANYTHING. I understand that it is in their best interest to do this. But at what point does all of the hype begin to erode ones opinion of the 'esteemed purveyor of fine automobiles' thereby relegating them to the level of just 'used car salesman'?
    I see all market conditions a bit differently. I believe we will lose at least another 1000 points on the DJI by Spring. I also think the real estate fall-out will continue for another 2-3 years. Therefore, it's in my best interest to stay on the sidelines for now. Mr. Sackey and Mr. Berns seem to have a 'sunny-side-up' view. Which is absolutely their right. As for me, I would not consider any kind of purchase until the 4th quarter of '09 or later. I think prudence dictates it. And I agree, $800k IS a lot of money. In my conservative view, $500k is a lot of money.
    But as George would say: '...just one man's opinion.'
     
  24. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    #24 Napolis, Jan 19, 2009
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2009
    Minutes? Mais Non. Three years from last May. The point I still think you're missing is the time value of buying something.

    Those paying 550K or 704K today are paying what they feel that particular car is worth to them today. The potential loss as the good GTL's drop to 400K and the lesser ones drop to 250K should I turn out to be right doesn't bother them as they want that particular car today.

    I'm reminded of the guy who asked the Queen if she would perform a sex act for money. She was outraged but when the guy offered to Bail out the Sovereign debt of England she reluctantly agreed. "How about for a Shilling?" "What do you take me for she gasped." "Madame we've already established that. Now we're talking about price."

    Geno you think prices are down and may head lower. I agree. You don't think ratty GTL's will reach 250K within three years form last May. I do.

    See You Next Saturday.
     
  25. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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