Just picked up a copy of Hemmings at the newstand

People still by Hemmings? That publication has to be on its way out.

 

reminds me of the days when F40's changed hands at 1.2M and everyone was speculating on Ferraris and exotic cars.

Ray

 

At one time that was the bible of the auto industry. It's been around at least 40 years.

It's also on line and that's probably where most of their activity is.

Actually, that's where I found my 360 in a small, obscure on-line ad!

 

Not sure if the cars are really changing hands at those prices, but it's certainly the most overpriced part of the classic car market right now.

With real estate cooling I think you'll see a lot less 'house lottery' money chasing these cars.

 

Those deals are starting to cool. The muscle car market is due for a huge correction. If the dealers have huge money in those cars, they'd best get out of them now. I think the market will look very different in another year.

 

It saved me many times for rare replacement parts. (W113, Bentley, Rolls, Caddies, etc...)

 

It was a good time to sell my Lemans

 

Far from it. It's still a most useful publication.

 

Quite the opposite. It is very useful for many reasons. It may not be the right place to buy a Ferrari, but not everyone limits themselves to Ferraris.

It is still the best publication of its type.

 

Seems to me that a lot of the hype with American muscle cars is driven by Barratt-Jackson, Speed channel, and a bunch of those auto restoration and "pimp my ride" type shows on TV these days. Couple that with the proliferation of local and regional car shows with people showing off all manner of cars, collectors to junk, it has created a buying frenzy, and there are some folks out there who are willing to pay big bucks for one of those supposedly "rare" finds and "100 point perfect" restorations.

B-J and Remy and other auctions have been seeing insane numbers for big block Chevys and Fords and other stuff that people are rolling out of the barns and fixing up for resale. Every bubble eventually bursts, as was seen years back when the Ferrari market dropped. It happened with the Jaguar XKEs and XK cars that were fetching huge prices 15 years ago. Sooner or later (and with the glut of these cars hitting the market, I suspect sooner), the muscle car craze will go bust too. But then, I've never been great at predicting market trends on anything in my life, so don't rely on me as a bell-weather.

 

Same here. Sold my '68 Cutlass.

 

Personally, I think the collector car market overall is going to suffer a "correction" at least on par with 1990-1992. Back then it was absurd speculation in Ferrari's and such that ultimately lead to a crash that effected the entire market.

This time the crash is going to be lead by Muscle cars. But just like before, once the dumping begins the entire market will get crushed. Because there are so many more muscle cars out there and so many more cars with inflated values and such, I fear this time will be far more painful than last.

The Monterey auctions this month are going to be very interesting.



Terry

 

I totally agree. A monster nose dive.

 

At or after the auctions in Monterey next week?

 

Well...after the car market crashes, perhaps folks will regain their senses and start pushing the stock market back up .

 

One of these days, the musclecar crowd will come to the realization that their hi-po cars are nothing more than mom and pop's grocery getters with a big engine stuffed under the hood. No race car engineering behind them, no streamlined design; just big old boxy summer vacation mobiles that sway around the curves like an overloaded tuna boat with a big motor. I wonder how many of those BJ Auction bidders wake up a few weeks after the auction and say "I bid HOW MUCH for that gaudy, hot rodded piece of junk? I must have been drunk, insane, or both! WHY didn't somebody stop me???!!!"
The repro/replica/fishy original musclecars will become like 70s vans lined with shag carpeting: an over-the-hill fad for aging hippies that could never give up the good old days.

 

They're impossible to find, but you can get replicas now.

 

I really have to laugh, everyone is just waiting & watching for the collapse. When it goes, and it will, it will be from the economy tanking (or the baby boomer's dropping). Gas $5 bucks a gallon, home interest rates 10% or more, stuff like that. When it does, you can kiss any great price out of any type of car, Ford or Ferrari. The most interesting thing about this, at least to me, is the age of the buyers. Most people are in there 50's to early 60's.

 

The bigger problem is the number of fakes in the market. They can be hard to spot but are out there.

Also, the number of "re-creations" - saw a Mustang at the BRIC that was presented as a fastback, had be done up pretty nice with a crate motor and updated suspension and brakes. However, underneath, it was just a base Mustang. The updated cars drive nicer than orignal cars, but someday won't be worth close to the sum of their parts. Original, documented cars will always be worth more but are still due for a big correction. There are a few cars that are rare and will always be worth big $$$ - L88 Corvettes, ZL-1 Camaros, etc., but there's a lot out there that is pretty common that is way over valued right now.

However, the good side is that, just like when Ferraris were at their peak, there are cars that have been treated to top dollar restorations that wouldn't have been bothered with in a normal market. Some will wind up with good cars once the market is done.

 

What you have at those prices is pure speculation. Most muscle cars do not sell anywhere near the rip off Barrett Jackson prices. Really it might just be like real estate in Ca. Someone is going to get burned.

This winter's BJ sales should be a good one to watch. If the $$$ is down or if its up, what happens next!