A couple things happened in the Derby which have me concerned. Firstly, the real speed in the race (Materiality) got eliminated right at the start as he was squeezed right out of contention. The net result was the time (2:03) was one of the slowest Derby times in recent memory, this on a fast track. This raises a question about AP's level of greatness, and IMO he didn't look like the "freak of nature" his owner has been saying he thinks he is. Secondly, the WAY he won has me even more concerned. I honestly thought he would absolutely blow this field away, but in reality from the quarter pole home, Victor was not just riding him, he was race-riding him fairly hard, and it took him till the sixteenth pole to look like he was going to get the job done and win. This means perhaps he is not a push-button horse like Secretariat, Slew & Affirmed were, and he doesn't have what we call "gears" where he can pull away from the field with an explosive burst of speed when the question is asked. Anyone noting will recall his closing quarter in the Arkansas Derby was pretty slow too, even though he distanced that field, underscoring my aforementioned notion. It seems his early races were impressive because he was against lesser opposition. So I'm thinking we have a very good horse, but not a great horse. I think the distance in the Belmont will be no problem, its turn-of-foot that's got me concerned, so it remains to be seen whether he will win the shorter-distance Preakness which requires tactical speed. To win the Preakness you need 3 things: speed, speed & more speed, and a horse with tactical speed that has gears and will use them on command, wins the Preakness easily. I'm not sure AP will get the job done. Regarding gears, watch the 2002 Kentucky Derby and see what War Emblem does when Victor asks him for speed at the quarter pole, I was looking for the same from AP when it mattered most. Let's not forget also, this horse showed us at the end of his 2-year-old season that he could have soundness issues. The horses that swept the Triple Crown never had any soundness issues that interrupted their TC careers, and those that failed at the Belmont often did so precisely because of soundness issues. That's yet another concern, perhaps the most important one. I'm still high on American Pharaoh, but after Saturday, he looks like a normal Derby winner to me, not a Triple Crown winner. I'd be happy to be proven wrong!
Joe , it seems the whole rest of the field had no gears left. I thought the stretch run the rear pack did not pass each other at all...Usually you have a couple horses out of the rear pack. None .
Come-from-behind horses need a fast early pace to run at, once the hot pace collapses. As I said before the race, pace makes race.
what happened to Carpe Diem? also what does anyone know about the WinStar stables? my 2nd consulting gig out of college in 1996 was Excel Communications. I use to get to work same time as Kenny Trout. He had the 1st parking space in the garage usually in his Bentley. I parked outside about 100 yards away. Shared elevator several times. my "customer" in Rep Services was Kenny's brother.
Very cool I was pulling for Carpe Diem just because the Trouts are local to me, but was sad to see him not do well. It sounds like he was supposed to do well too. I normally make bets for bragging rights with my mom because she loves the Derby, but she did better than me this year. I should listen to Joe for next year
Kenny has built Winstar into a state-of-the-art breeding facility: WinStar Farm - Thoroughbred Stallions - Versailles, KY Bear in mind they have already won the Kentucky Derby (2010 Super Saver).
Check it out, Johnny V (awesome gate-rider) gave him a great start, I think the pace was too slow, 47 secs @ the half, it went downhill from there, he's number 2 in this full-race sequence 2015 Kentucky Derby Race Sequence | Features | BloodHorse.com
Today's race was The Perfect Storm (no pun intended), good early pace, small field, Victor riding perfectly, easy win. My post-Derby concerns were all answered, I saw what I needed to see, I'm on-board with this guy, I say: TRIPLE! The first in 37 years.
