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Kentucky Derby

Discussion in 'Sports' started by joe sackey, Apr 12, 2015.

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  1. koisokok

    koisokok F1 World Champ
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    The inside was key..Very good ride.
     
  2. TheDuke

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    I had Irish War Cry to win, Always Dreaming to place, and Classic Empire to show. I didn't place a real bet or anything, just bragging rights among family members

    Not my best result but that's what happens when I put minimal effort in to research. It's also the Derby so anything can happen :D

    Nice job on your prediction Joe!
     
  3. ag512bbi

    ag512bbi F1 Veteran
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  4. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

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    Actually, Always Dreaming was co-favorite @ the off Always Dreaming wins Kentucky Derby - CNN.com so if you simply went with picking the favorite you only had a 50% chance of winning as you had to decide which favorite you wanted, Classic Empire or Always Dreaming.

    Personally, I gave Classic Empire little chance as his season has been inconsistent and I thought he needed a fast track to have any chance to win.

    Also, if you use the favorite as a basis to make your picks for the Kentucky Derby without any true knowledge of the runners, you'll find that you'll lose 65% of the time, as favorites have only won the Kentucky Derby an abysmal 35% of the time - which shows how much the general public who generate the favorites really know about handicapping.
     
  5. I did not know that...and today that's a good thing! Wow.
     
  6. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

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    Way too early to call it when hardly anyone has heard of this horse and we don't even know if he'll get into the gate on the first Saturday in May, but if he does, I think we'll know his name by then - Justify.

    I saw the race on Sunday, two words: goose bumps.

    Mike Smith is one of the best jockeys in the world at the moment and I could tell he was restraining his unbridled enthusiasm for this horse, something really special, I hope he lines up

     
  7. ag512bbi

    ag512bbi F1 Veteran
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    Always appreciate your knowledge. Good to know, i'll be looking out for him.
     
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  8. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

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  9. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

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    This year has perhaps the best Derby field since American Pharoah's Triple Crown year, with Justify, Bolt d’Oro, Audible, Good Magic, Vino Rosso et al all in contention.

    But I fear they may all have a problem with a freight train that's heading to Louisville called Mendelssohn

     
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  10. willwork04

    willwork04 F1 Rookie
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    Holy Moly!

    Can't wait to see your prediction Joe! Haven't you guessed the past 5 winners?

    Edit: Just went back a page to read and realize you have! What a great streak. I bet on American Pharaoh to win the TC before the Derby because of the praise you gave to the horse.
     
  11. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

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    I actually predicted AP would win the TC even before he ran in the Derby, which is kind of wild, that said, disregard my so-called past streak, it all means nothing when it comes to Derby time!

    I've already gone ahead and picked Justify (see posts above) coming off zero 2-year-old experience and just a maiden win before the Santa Anita Derby (which he has now won), but, since no horse has ever won the Derby without running at 2 since Apollo in 1882, he has a 136-year curse to overcome. Add that to the fact that I believe that this year's field is collectively one of the best Derby fields ever, then you can see how the odd's are stacked against Justify. There is a ton of speed in this race and if the track comes up fast, this Derby will likely be won off the front, with a wire-to-wire win a distinct possibility.

    Justify may be the sentimental public favorite by Derby day because Baffert trains him and because he's a big handsome flashy chestnut, but insiders are not convinced. However, if he can break the longstanding curse and also hold off the likes of Mendelssohn on the first Saturday in May, he might just go all the way...
     
  12. willwork04

    willwork04 F1 Rookie
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    Derby Week! Wish I was headed back this year!
     
  13. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

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    No sports experience like it
     
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  14. TheDuke

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    It’s Derby day!! The field looks very competitive this year.

    What’s everyone’s pick? I’m leaning towards Justify but the curse of Apollo has me worried. Can he snap the streak?
     
  15. koisokok

    koisokok F1 World Champ
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  16. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
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    Have I mentioned in this thread yet 20 years ago I consulted Kenny Trout's Excel Telecommunications for 6 months. I had to park out in the sun parking lot, but would walk through 1st floor of parking garage. We usually arrived same time he had up front parking spot driving his Rolls/Bentley (can't remember). I never talked to him much, but worked with his brother almost daily as he was in charge of Representative Services, which is division I consulted. His brother was really nice.
     
  17. TheMayor

    TheMayor Ten Time F1 World Champ
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    You have to hand it to NBC

    They can take an 90 second event and turn it into 4 hours of TV programming.
     
  18. tomc

    tomc Two Time F1 World Champ

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    My Boy Jack, #10

    Bet the farm! Unless you really own a farm, then bet $2.[emoji2]

    T
     
  19. koisokok

    koisokok F1 World Champ
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  20. tomc

    tomc Two Time F1 World Champ

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    Nice. My wife and I made our annual flutter. Happily, I made a lucky bet in the 10th race, and was playing with house money for the Derby. Left a whopping $24 to the good (less food and drinks!). Cha -ching! [emoji2]
    T
     
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  21. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
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    Yea Dallas!
     
  22. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

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    Thank you, but good horses make their own luck, and this one is not just a horse, he's a superhorse.

    Despite the effects of the weather on the track, the race was basically won off the front, which shows you how talented this animal is, Mike waited so long to ask him to change leads and then the only reason he rode him a little down the stretch was to get him to stop looking at the crowd. When Good Magic came to him, he toyed with him. He won eeaaasy, all told I think Baffert has a really nice horse.

    Barring any injuries, I can think of two words to describe this horse's potential accomplishments: Triple Crown

    The Kentucky Derby is actually a week-long party, and a two-minute horse race breaks out at the end of it, that said, not even Pegasus can do it in 90 seconds ;)

    Seriously, its a two-day event, with the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Derby on Saturday, and I think NBC do a great 2-day coverage job with what is actually one of the oldest and most enduring sporting events in US sports history. Of course it's not for everybody, but for some people, especially those who have actually attended the event in person, it's very special
     
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  23. TheDuke

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    Congrats on 6 in a row Joe!!

    That was a fun race. I had Justify to win but had Bolt d'Oro and Mendelssohn for place and show. They both had disappointing races.

    I'm looking forward to the Preakness is a two weeks!!
     
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  24. willwork04

    willwork04 F1 Rookie
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    Great job, Joe!!!

    Mendelssohn got smashed early on, did not help him at all
     

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