Light Analysis of 458 Italia Market

I've been analyzing the pre-owned 458 Italia market in pursuit of my next sports car, and collected some data I thought the community may enjoy.

Assumptions:

• The car is bought used
• Clear title, no accidents

Variables:

• 100 samples across United States
• Model Year 2010-2015
• 458 Italia only, excludes exclusive models
• Any options, I did not differentiate based on options
• Ads are from dealer and owner. Mostly dealer.

Notable Findings:

• For every mile driven, lose $4-5/mi resale (for reference, my data on 991 GT3 is ~$1.50/mi)
• “Resale red” is a deserving title
• Other inferences that can be made based on the charts below

Think of this data as a snapshot in time. It won’t be relevant forever, but if you’re in the market now, enjoy it for what it's worth.
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There were few anomalies in the trend lines, and they're mostly examples with a red exterior. Mileage did not seem to have as big of an affect on resale if the example was red, nor did the model year. Which leads me to believe red examples are curtailing resale predicability, but not unreasonably so. I myself would be a first time F-car owner and have been letting my pursuit of a rosso color cloud my financial judgement.

Of course this data does not account for time on market, so I could not say comfortably whether or not a red exterior expedites sale. But data does show it leads to a higher asking price and thus likely a higher sale price.

 

Will do. I haven't performed this level of analysis on many vehicles, only the 991 GT3 which I am fond of. Next I may do the MP4-12C, possibly the Gallardo Superleggera as I am cross-shopping them.

I'm sure the spec has an impact. Unfortunately, there is currently no good way to mass aggregate data on options without significant manual effort. You have to look at the descriptions (which often mis-lable a feature) and individual photos to pinpoint options. In the past I have engaged virtual assistants for this type of work, which is quite cost-effective, but personally, I'm not a stickler when it comes to options.

Correct - asking prices. Unfortunately, I cannot append my original post with this variable. Too much time has passed and I can no longer edit.

I have yet to find a good way to aggregate mass data on actual sales figures, so I've been using the asking price as a proxy. Through qualitative research, mostly talking to past 458 private owners, they seem to negotiate a 3-5% discount from asking price during the sale. Which is more rigid than any other make I've researched.

Agreed. Given the consistency of the trend line for my 100 samples, I believe the mileage has the greatest effect on resale. My guess is the next largest variable is options then color.

I can imagine. They're likely taking F-cars in on trade and just want them moved.




For my purposes, I'm still on the fence about a 458 Italia, but leaning towards the 991 GT3. I currently have an R8, which is a great car but heavy on technical roads and I'd like to go back to RWD (came from a Cayman S). I only have one garage space for my fun car/s, and I enjoy putting on hard miles in LA's canyons, so the 458 doesn't seem like the right fit for my desires - for now at least.

 

I'm not as confident in some of the charts generated off my 991 GT3 data gathering given the sample size was 1/2, but here's a few charts.

Porsche 911 GT3 (2014-2016, 991) Analysis

Assumptions:

• The car is bought used
• Clear title, no accidents

Variables:

• 52 samples across United States
• Model Year 2014-2016
• Excludes RS models
• Any options, I did not differentiate based on options
• Ads are from dealer and owner. Mostly dealer.

Notable Findings:

• For every mile driven, lose $0.60-1.50 in resale
• PCCB (carbon brakes) add ~$4-5k in resale
• The presence of a race cage affected resale by ~$10k
• Accident history, light or major, dropped asking price $10-15k

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I was getting an unresolved error with the axis flipped. Here's a better visualization. (I cannot edit the original post)

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Here's what it looks like without those two top-mileage outliers. The delta in depreciation per mile is negligible - I'd have to target and remove upwards of 10% of the 100 samples to have a sizeable impact.

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Here is the exterior color distribution of available 458 Italias:

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My comment about "resale red" being true is based on comparing the trendline and overall distribution of red vs. non-red examples. Based on the visuals below, red examples have a higher price floor, or resale asking price. It's a bit rough of an insinuation to make based on these visuals alone (only 100 samples), but once you pull up seamlessly identical examples--one red one non-red--the price difference is apparent.

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I absolutely agree and am driving to rip up the canyons and track! But my pragmatic and analytical mind has taken over. Here's my total losses calculation over a 3-year ownership period, 458 vs GT3. At this time in my life, I'm not sure if that $900/mo delta in losses is justifiable. Just my own situation.

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I'm a nerd, I know. I'm glad others are enjoying the data as well.