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Light Analysis of 458 Italia Market

Discussion in '458 Italia/488/F8' started by LifeIsGR8, Dec 3, 2019 at 6:11 PM.

  1. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

    Tuesday
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    I've been analyzing the pre-owned 458 Italia market in pursuit of my next sports car, and collected some data I thought the community may enjoy.

    Assumptions:
    • The car is bought used
    • Clear title, no accidents

    Variables:
    • 100 samples across United States
    • Model Year 2010-2015
    • 458 Italia only, excludes exclusive models
    • Any options, I did not differentiate based on options
    • Ads are from dealer and owner. Mostly dealer.

    Notable Findings:
    • For every mile driven, lose $4-5/mi resale (for reference, my data on 991 GT3 is ~$1.50/mi)
    • “Resale red” is a deserving title
    • Other inferences that can be made based on the charts below

    Think of this data as a snapshot in time. It won’t be relevant forever, but if you’re in the market now, enjoy it for what it's worth.
    _

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  2. PhilNotHill

    PhilNotHill Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Thanks for posting
     
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  3. klinkman

    klinkman Formula Junior
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    Jan 29, 2018
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    impressive study and summary
     
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  4. Steinhart

    Steinhart Karting

    May 21, 2019
    229
    Scottsdale, AZ, USA
    very nice, thank you!

    can you elaborate on "resale red is a deserving title"?
     
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  5. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

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    There were few anomalies in the trend lines, and they're mostly examples with a red exterior. Mileage did not seem to have as big of an affect on resale if the example was red, nor did the model year. Which leads me to believe red examples are curtailing resale predicability, but not unreasonably so. I myself would be a first time F-car owner and have been letting my pursuit of a rosso color cloud my financial judgement.

    Of course this data does not account for time on market, so I could not say comfortably whether or not a red exterior expedites sale. But data does show it leads to a higher asking price and thus likely a higher sale price.
     
  6. Steinhart

    Steinhart Karting

    May 21, 2019
    229
    Scottsdale, AZ, USA
    this is the first real analysis I have seen, please keep us posted on any new developments with your analysis and vehicle search

    my 2 cents: buy the car that moves you, price paid fades fast but the car lives on forever
     
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  7. Viper830tt

    Viper830tt Karting

    May 10, 2017
    75
    Thank you for posting. I am looking at a spider myself. I see the mention of options, but other variables that ive noticed in shopping include certain options including led wheel, shields, and lift. Most cars seem to have the first two, and it would be really challenging to stratify for all variables with only so few cars on the market. A minority of cars maybe not even be available anymore. Kellymotorsports has a blue spider on dupont thats been sold for at least several months (i checked). Nevertheless, this is helpful. Ive been looking at less popular colors including blue and yellow. Id like to think these color preferences help me a bit.

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  8. mustangtornado

    Dec 19, 2014
    1
    oh no, the blue one sold?!? ugh, love that one.
     
  9. ChipG

    ChipG Formula Junior

    May 26, 2011
    682
    Santa Monica, CA
    I'm assuming these are asking prices not actual sale prices? You might want to say which one but great info, thanks for sharing!
     
  10. dsevo

    dsevo Formula Junior

    May 7, 2007
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    I’m also shopping and have watched the market pretty closely. I’ve found that some of the options make a big difference in asking price and seemingly how long a car is on the market. Seats, LED wheel, and lifter are the big 3 IMO. But often times the cars with these options also have dreamer asking prices, so who knows what the actual transaction prices are. I have my eye on a few cars, but I’m waiting for their asking prices to correct after they sit a bit through the holiday season.

    The cars that are well spec’d and priced right tend to move quick, but I don’t think that’s much of a revelation.
     
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  11. Viper830tt

    Viper830tt Karting

    May 10, 2017
    75
    Also the pricing between ferrari dealers and non ferrari dealers may be considered separately. Im finding that the non-ferrari dealers are kind of a different market...

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  12. dsevo

    dsevo Formula Junior

    May 7, 2007
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    Dustin
    That brings up a great point, and why I tend to focus on private sellers. I looked at a car offered by my local Ferrari dealer last week. The car was what I’d consider “rough”, yet they were still asking all the money based on the miles. Blows my mind how much garage rash these cars end up with. I personally haven’t found that the dealers offer better cars, they just ask more for them.
     
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  13. triathgeek

    triathgeek Rookie

    Jul 25, 2010
    42
    Santa Clarita, CA
    Great information! Thank you for sharing this info as I am considering moving into a different pony.
     
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  14. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

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    #14 LifeIsGR8, Dec 4, 2019 at 12:29 PM
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2019 at 12:35 PM
    Will do. I haven't performed this level of analysis on many vehicles, only the 991 GT3 which I am fond of. Next I may do the MP4-12C, possibly the Gallardo Superleggera as I am cross-shopping them.

    I'm sure the spec has an impact. Unfortunately, there is currently no good way to mass aggregate data on options without significant manual effort. You have to look at the descriptions (which often mis-lable a feature) and individual photos to pinpoint options. In the past I have engaged virtual assistants for this type of work, which is quite cost-effective, but personally, I'm not a stickler when it comes to options.

    Correct - asking prices. Unfortunately, I cannot append my original post with this variable. Too much time has passed and I can no longer edit.

    I have yet to find a good way to aggregate mass data on actual sales figures, so I've been using the asking price as a proxy. Through qualitative research, mostly talking to past 458 private owners, they seem to negotiate a 3-5% discount from asking price during the sale. Which is more rigid than any other make I've researched.

    Agreed. Given the consistency of the trend line for my 100 samples, I believe the mileage has the greatest effect on resale. My guess is the next largest variable is options then color.

    I can imagine. They're likely taking F-cars in on trade and just want them moved.




    For my purposes, I'm still on the fence about a 458 Italia, but leaning towards the 991 GT3. I currently have an R8, which is a great car but heavy on technical roads and I'd like to go back to RWD (came from a Cayman S). I only have one garage space for my fun car/s, and I enjoy putting on hard miles in LA's canyons, so the 458 doesn't seem like the right fit for my desires - for now at least.
     
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  15. triathgeek

    triathgeek Rookie

    Jul 25, 2010
    42
    Santa Clarita, CA
    I also have an 2018 GT3 with 11000 miles (yes I drive all my cars regularly) and like to see your analysis if your willing to share.
     
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  16. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

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    I'm not as confident in some of the charts generated off my 991 GT3 data gathering given the sample size was 1/2, but here's a few charts.

    Porsche 911 GT3 (2014-2016, 991) Analysis

    Assumptions:
    • The car is bought used
    • Clear title, no accidents

    Variables:
    • 52 samples across United States
    • Model Year 2014-2016
    • Excludes RS models
    • Any options, I did not differentiate based on options
    • Ads are from dealer and owner. Mostly dealer.

    Notable Findings:
    • For every mile driven, lose $0.60-1.50 in resale
    • PCCB (carbon brakes) add ~$4-5k in resale
    • The presence of a race cage affected resale by ~$10k
    • Accident history, light or major, dropped asking price $10-15k
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  17. HMB-Dino

    HMB-Dino Formula 3
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    Why did you flip the x-axis in the Mileage vs Price chart compared to the Mileage vs Year charts?
     
  18. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

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    I was getting an unresolved error with the axis flipped. Here's a better visualization. (I cannot edit the original post)

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  19. tomc

    tomc F1 World Champ

    Apr 13, 2014
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    Cool. Science geek. Love this kind of stuff!

    Since high mileage Ferrari are, unfortunately, outliers, what happens to your model if you ignore the two high mileage outliers? I'm guessing the regression line will flatten out? How's that change the $/mile analysis? Assuming you're using Excel or Origin, include the R^2 and best-fit equations.

    T
     
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  20. rockminster

    rockminster Formula Junior
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    Nov 20, 2003
    615
    SF Bay Area
    Thanks for sharing this data. You referenced "resale red" but I didn't see a chart plotting asking price by color. Do you have that?
     
  21. Live2win

    Live2win Rookie

    Sep 27, 2019
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    Pasadena MD
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    David perkins
    Wow a lot to digest. I recently purchased a 2010 458 Italia , and in 2.5 months have put on 2,700 miles, when purchased 14,000 miles.

    I purchased the car to enjoy, and the more I drive , the more I enjoy.

    These cars are not investments, I get trying to get the best price, but really is a few thousand either way going to make a difference?

    Buy one , drive it as much as you possibly can! The most fun you can have with your clothes on. Rock on!!!!
     
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  22. of2worlds

    of2worlds F1 World Champ
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    991 GT3 should be head and shoulders above those other two older models. Plus you live in the state that seems to have more 911's than anywhere else; so a great selection of GT3's to choose from! GT3.
     
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  23. 3POINT8

    3POINT8 Formula 3

    Jan 23, 2014
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    impressive work here. thanks so much
     
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  24. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

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    #24 LifeIsGR8, Dec 4, 2019 at 7:26 PM
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2019 at 7:42 PM
    Here's what it looks like without those two top-mileage outliers. The delta in depreciation per mile is negligible - I'd have to target and remove upwards of 10% of the 100 samples to have a sizeable impact. :(

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    Here is the exterior color distribution of available 458 Italias:

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    My comment about "resale red" being true is based on comparing the trendline and overall distribution of red vs. non-red examples. Based on the visuals below, red examples have a higher price floor, or resale asking price. It's a bit rough of an insinuation to make based on these visuals alone (only 100 samples), but once you pull up seamlessly identical examples--one red one non-red--the price difference is apparent.

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    I absolutely agree and am driving to rip up the canyons and track! But my pragmatic and analytical mind has taken over. Here's my total losses calculation over a 3-year ownership period, 458 vs GT3. At this time in my life, I'm not sure if that $900/mo delta in losses is justifiable. Just my own situation.

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    I'm a nerd, I know. I'm glad others are enjoying the data as well.
     
  25. Adamas

    Adamas F1 Rookie
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    Great work.

    Mike
     
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