Long Term Implications.

Let's suppose that gas lines spread, and persist for maybe 6-8 weeks. Let's say gas prices settle down at what looks like a kinda permanent $3.50-$4.50/gal.


Do you think it would significantly change new car purchase patterns? It's hard to imagine a lot of foot traffic at your Hummer dealer today.

Do you think this could be the final blow to the traditional Big Three?

 

There's a thread on scoooterbbs.com querying scooter shop owners, most of whom agree that they've never seen the sales they're currently seeing. Understandable, as Vespas get 45+ mpg and other makes get up to 90 mpg.

I topped off my MINI Cooper S this morning and got a lot of questions about the mileage, mostly from SUV owners. Of course, if I want to actually realize the mileage it offers, I've got to start learning to shift below 4500 rpm.

Today's NY Times projects a minimum of 6 weeks of gas prices at their current levels, before any possibility of downward movement based on the supply chain. Then again, once the public is accustomed to paying $3/$4 a gallon, what's the incentive to drop the price? Also, Katrina's path cut across a ton of natural gas lines in the Gulf, so expect higher heating costs this winter.

 

I think what is happening now will have a long term effect and seriously hurt SUV's sales unless your lifestyle really calls for one, which is the way it should be anyway. People are seeing the future right now, High prices and tighter supplies and will start changing habits accordingly

 

EVERYTHING will eventually cost more, simply because the price all things, to some degree, is tied to the cost of the energy required to produce or deliver it.

The SUV craze may just have expereinced the beginning of the end. Some of the Big 3's cars actually get decent mileage, but a large part of their profits come from gas-guzzlers like SUVs and trucks, not cars like the Chevy Impala.

In the 12-18 months, I predict many more hybrids and smaller engine choices in the vehicles Detroit makes. A hybrid Ford Ranger is an example. A smaller diesel engine option in the Explorer and Trailblazer are others.

FWD (instead of AWD), V-6's and I-4's in sedans instead of V-8's. I was actually contemplating getting another C230 like we traded off last year, it got over 30 mpg on the highway, and high 20's in town. Compared to my Liberty (15/18 mpg,...maybe), a used one could make up the purchase price difference in only a couple of years.

And finally, for the people who just bought new Yukons or Expeditions on the family pricing plan, their resale has probably dropped just in the time of reading this post. Even getting $10k off, they still lose a huge percentage when they trade in a year or two.

 

The end of the horsepower wars on the 'lower end' of the spectrum. Cars like the SRT8 are not going to last.

 

The cost of all goods increasing as it relates to the energy used to transport or produce them is perfectly illustrated by island economies - i.e. a gallon of milk costing $4.50 on the island of Bermuda.

On a lark last Sunday, I check out SUV prices in the Philadelphia Inquirer, and there wasn't a single used SUV over $19,000, including Escalades and Navigators.

 

Uro,

I think it's too early predict long term effects. Though, short term, I'm sure buying habits have changed dramatically.

 

How many questions specifically about mileage are you getting compared to the last few times you've filled up?

Would you say you've seen a ten-fold increase in anxiety-ridden SUV owners lusting after your wonderful car?

 

Yeah, all the questions are now mileage based, whereas before they were all along the lines of, "How do you fit in that that thing?"

 

In 1988 GM found it was cheaper to sell V8s and pay the fine then it was to sell the 4bangers. It is real easy to blame the car makers but the truth is that in 88' gas was cheap and the publc demanded those cars. If high fuel prices make the publc ask for better cars, then I am all for it. I do love my gas-guzzerl but it is only a toy and if I have to pay $5.00 a gallon, it is not even close to the service it needs.