Market discussion: the gated six speed value explosion

Please forgive me if this has already a subject that has been played out. But, being someone who researches the market constantly and stays on top of pricing for the sheer fun of it, I have been watching the explosion over the last year in $$$ of the gated 6 speed cars of the last 20 years. It seems like the increases have been based very speifically based on whether or not the car was offered with both F1 and 6 speed, how many of the 6 speeds were made, how popular the car was in its day, etc. What I'm wondeirng it this: Is this a bubble? Will a 599 6 speed hold its value at 600K? Will a 550 with 13K miles on it hold its value at 220K? Is a 575 M with a gated shifter worth 450K? OR are all of these good buys now. Four years ago Wayne Carrini told me I should buy a Dayton coupe for 350K becuase it will double in 5 years. I didn't, of course and it did, of course. There is no definitive answer to this conundrum and I get that. I'm just wondering what the dedicated masses here on FC think.

 

I think, that, when the last batch of car enthusiasts who ever drove a 3-pedal cease to be able to drive any cars......

 

Why don't you ask Wayne?

 

2400 makes a good point. Many, many people under age 30 today can't drive a manual at all, so why would they one day pay a premium for a manual shift car that's already expensive? I think in 30 years a manual 360, 550, Aston Martin, 911 turbo, etc may well be LESS that a paddle shift version of the same car.
Be advised that I'm not an expert, nor did I even stay at Holiday Inn Express last night!

 

599 6 speed holding value at 600K. No way.

550's needed an ''adjustment''...it wasn't right that the options alone in a 458 would quite easily be worth more than a 550 2 years back. 200K for a good one sounds about right.

 

Once F1 was offered as an option on a particular model, the gated manual became the minority of cars purchased. Love it or hate it, the F1 transmission was very popular.

Some models are exceedingly rare with manuals, 612 and 599 being two. Perhaps 5% (?) of cars you will see use a conventional manual transmission. Of course once the dual-clutch became available Ferrari dropped the manual option entirely for models like the 458.

So IMO, some of the price increase for manuals has been because of the general bubble around Ferraris and other (relatively) rare sports cars, and some has been because of Ferraris, late-model manuals are more rare and some may consider more "special".

I think you see even bigger premiums on more recent cars like the 599 because the manual is much more unusual on the newer models, and the buyers probably aren't shopping for past Ferrari models that all used gated manuals, so these newer rarer manuals get an even bigger premium. I doubt many guys looking for a manual 599 are trying to decide between it an a 348, for example.

In the end, IMO, the manuals (and all Ferraris made in the last 40 years) will come back down to Earth. That $600k 599 may "only" be worth $300k in a couple of years. But it almost certainly will be worth more than F1 599 examples, all other things being equal.

 

It seems values are based on how rare certain cars are, i.e. only 36 GTO's, etc. There's probably less 6 speed manual 430's on the planet than F40's!

 

There are plenty of 360 MT cars - around 25% probably were MT.

Final Generation with MT:
First Gen 612 (2004 - 07) were about 10%
F-430 is probably similar percentage.
Probably less than 50 total for 599
About 2 or 3 California total with MT, depending on whom you speak with

 

Really, bro? That's what you have to contribute? "Why don't you ask Wayne"? Wow. BTW you can call Wayne's shop any day and speak to him, so it's not something I was including as being a big deal. The guy runs a business and is happy to talk to enthusiasts about stuff like that. I guess there are still a few of you still here on FC.

 

Great info, Southnc. I noticed that the prices of 360 gated cars is about 25% over F1 cars, where as the 430's that are gated are double +. And, I've only found One 612 gated and it was in the Jersey flood so it has a Salvage title. I was SO ready to buy!

Anyway, all great points.

 

Great thoughts. I have to say I agree with you.

 

You dropped his name, I didn't. If you needed an oracle to realize that Daytona's were undervalued you are clueless. By all means go out and pay asking price for a 599 6spd.

 

If Ferrari is smart they will put a manual option in the new Dino.

That will end the "OMG Ferrari doesn't make a manual anymore!" craze.

 

Agreed.

Just look how successful the MT-only Porsche Boxster Spyder and Cayman GT-4 are; hence, the upcoming 911R.

Also, just try and get your hands on the new Ford Mustang Shelby GT-350R.

MT is alive and well among enthusiasts.

 

Agree 100%. Would be a great move.

Porsche is coming out with a Boxster Spyder GT4, which should have a MT and the next Gen GT3 will offer a manual too.

 

2 of my cars are 6 speed manuals. There is a connection there missing in the F1 transmission.All my cars I drove as a kid 50 years ago were manuals. Perhaps thats part of the nostalgia.

 

Yes, these value debates have been "played out" here beyond nauseating extent and I'm guessing several new ones introduced weekly, but at least most can be avoiided since they usuallly have thread title indicating such.
This thread title suggested some kind of "EXPLOSION" of a 6-speed transmission.
I expected pictures and technical discussion, not another "waste of time".

 

I also opened the thread expecting a technical discussion. I've edited the title a bit to make it more descriptive.

Carry on, folks.

All the best,
Andrew.

 

Before you know it, they'll be a debate on the F1 transmission values, as DCT continues its domination of the exotic car market.

 

As crazy as it sounds, I liked the old F1 box better than the DCT's so --- there you go!

 

How about a new 488 6 speed manual.......drool.

 

And Alfa is selling its new Guilia 508 HP sedan ONLY with manual. This car beat the BMW in it's class on the Nurbergring.

The Dino is not going to be a "go fast" car. If they are smart they can probably get another 10-15% sales out of a MT even if it is slower than DCT.

 

The issue as I see it with the F1 is that technology will only get better, thus making the last generation seem obsolete. For example, go drive a DSG VW GTI, and then go drive a 360 F1.

The 360 tranny feel like a turd compared to the newer stuff.

A stick will always be a stick, and will always be more rewarding for day to day driving. The sticks from the cars which were made with an F1 option will always be more desired now as far as I'm concerned.

 

I do agree that the 360 era F1 gearbox is slow and lethargic (sorry 360 owners!) but the F430 and particularly the Scud showed how well it can be done.

In a spider, the sounds of the gearbox crashing back there at 150 msec on upshifts and downshifts is pretty amazing. DCT's just don't have that magic.

 

I think there's a general split in the market (realize this has been covered many times before):

Of cars that get driven:
1.) People who want cars to be comfortable, attractive, and look expensive
2.) People who want cars to feel like an event, which can sometimes be brutal or tiring (but exhilarating)

Some overlap for bunch of reasons (practicality, budget, location etc) but from my observations the first group will always want the latest / greatest / easiest to live with and the second group will be the ones pining for the past aspects that were more challenging or more engaging.

I won't mention the collection side (though this is now a "market" thread) but I definitely understand why manuals are sought after by enthusiasts, though I wouldn't (personally) pay the (current) premium solely due to outright rarity.