Market discussion: the gated six speed value explosion

The only exception I have to some of the comments is about young enthusiasts. I know quite a few 20something car nuts and they ALL and I mean ALL have sticks. They look at paddles with disdain. I think being able to drive a manual has become a bragging right in this group. Maybe it even helps to pick up chicks?

Dave

 

I agree on this. Just talked to a 21 year old who has been a car enthusiast since he was five. He knows how to drive a stick and he said if he got a sports car he and his friends would get a manual. He thought paddle shifters are boring and only good if you're tracking the car. I was surprised and delighted to hear his answer.

 

The MT Boxster, Cayman and 991 have been failures, relatively speaking (<20% take rate per the latest Panorama magazine.)

I think the values the OP mentions are all down to rarity and speculation, nothing more. No one actually drives a 599 with a three-pedal manual or even cares about how it drives.

 

The main problem I have with F1 type transmissions is the availability of the special parts that makes them shift sequentially. This could be hydraulic or electronic or both. At some point they become N/A, like 355 F1 pumps. Now 360 F1 pumps are becoming endangered. I always wondered why there isn't a group of guys refurbishing these units. I have a BMW dual clutch trans in my daily driver and it worries me that 10 years down the road I'm SOL for parts.

I also read somewhere that one of the leading deterrents for auto theft is a manual transmission because most thieves can't drive them.

 

I think you have to mention the collection side, because that's what's driving the market.

You can still walk into any Porsche dealership and get any of the Boxster/Cayman/991 with an old school three pedal manual, in any color you want, for less money than a PDK-equipped car. There is no premium for those because there is an infinite supply of cars.

The new GT4 Clubsport is a PDK-only, competition Cayman. It will be interesting to see if they sell at a discount or premium.

 

there is. Its been posted on F-chat. You can search for it.

 

+1. Seems like this craze definitely has a ceiling since if they get too expensive (already there?), Ferrari will recognize the opportunity and start making them again.

As an enthusiast who has wanted to buy one for years and only recently has the means, it sucks!

 

if millenials cant drive manual transmissions, that will just leave more room for the rest of us to buy the ferraris made prior to 1997. good.

 

sky high prices for 599's with manual transmissions, are unlikely to continue.

IF the bottom drops out of the collector car market, those models will fall as well, and possibly quite a bit farther percentage wise.

 

If Ferrari is smart they will not put an F1 transmission in the new Dino.

Wanna' bet?

 

The problem with FChat is the users have a somewhat unrealistic viewpoint about exotics. 99% of the country lives in a place outside of south beach, LA, Greenwich, The Hamptons, etc. A 458 actually ISN'T as common as a Ford F150. You see a Ferrari in "the real world" about as often as you see an LaFerrari in South Beach. Growing up in upstate NY a mere 60 miles from Spring Valley, I saw 2 (two) Ferrari's in the first 25 years of my life. In contrast, I saw two Porsches a week, even my rural upstate town.

It's not accurate to compare the Porsche 911 bubble with the Ferrari bubble. Manual 599's aren't going anywhere. You can't even compare 360's with 80's 911's. There are hundreds of thousands of air cooled 911's of 80's vintage with a few thousand of a comparable Ferrari model. Ferrari's will go down, but I doubt as much as the 911 will fall. There is NO novelty in an 86 911S (sorry).

As far as manuals... there will always be a contingent of driver that prefers a manual transmission. "We" (as I am one) don't want to drive a paddle car if we don't have to regardless how much faster. We'll pay for the experience. Manuals are going to drop as much as F1's.

 

Every one at C+C drives a manual. The media might want everyone to believe that we'll be texting like a Kardashian in the back of an autonomous Google car, but there are still men and women who love driving under the age of 30.

 

You missed a third group...you know the one that goes to car boards bragging how they are in the top 1%, won the lottery, hangs out with billionaires, is an an expert in markets,and has two graduate degrees from Ivy league schools (to justify their expertise in markets)

...yet when asked to substantiate any of these grandiose claims - always comes empty handed..what about this group Super_dave? Do you think they prefer manual or automatic?

 

I think Paul has a crush on me.

<blush>

You're not my type

 

It's true, I do have a crush...unfortunately, I have to stand behind the line of these 20 other Fchat members...

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

 

...but in the efforts of peace and reconciliation I offer you the same deal as BW, from this day forward if you make claim X, all I ask is substantiation. That's it. You do that, and I will chill. Everything in the past is just that, in the past - *poof* out of my memory.

This point on, if you say you are friends with Jerry Seinfeld, and rode is his 911. If I ask for a picture; don't get mad and call me a troll.

Fair?

 

If I might interject... I think it's reasonable to support assertions with substantive evidence upon polite request if the person presents it as learned and wants their opinion to carry any real weight. So, yes, it's fair.

All the best,
Andrew.

 

I regards to Daytonas being undervalued at 350 five years ago .. I do not think it was all that clear as if you go back 10 years ago the prices were still in the 275 to 350 range.. now I do know that back before the 1990 crash they may have been higher .. But it might be unfair to say it was obvious in 2011 (5years ago) that they were undervalued at around 350..
This is just based on my memory of the market. I also considered buying one at that price around that time .. and did not nor do I really regret it.. the point I guess I am trying to make is I do not think the 10year history would prove 350 in 2011 to be a homerun..
I also agree that the 599s gated for 600 is not going to hold.....there are plenty of manual transmission cars in the world if someone wants one..
The 200K 550 is probably a fair adjustment and I do not see the value in paying double that for a 575 gated.. rare or not it is essentially the same car..

 

Everyone always says this but.. .where can I get one then?

 

I did not say plenty of manual transmission 599s .. I said plenty of manual transmission cars... my point is that if that alone is the rarity manuals in other cars are plentiful and do not sell for a big premium.. over the auto version of the same car..
However in answer to your question of where can you get a manual transmission 599 there are 2 at CNC last i looked and seems there is one in canada... currently on the market so that makes 3 .. that i know of.. but that was not really my intent...