More Brundle Previews... Ferrari/McLaren

Lindsay_Ross · Mar 11, 2008

http://www.itv-f1.com/Feature.aspx?Type=Martin_Brundle&id=41891

Plenty of questions that hold the key to the shape of the 2008 season will begin to be answered in Australia this weekend, as teams and drivers give a first true glimpse of their form.

In his second exclusive itv.com/f1 preview feature, Martin Brundle gives his expert take on who's where so far and how the year is likely to shape up.

Its clear from winter testing that Ferrari and McLaren have an advantage of at least a quarter of a second per lap over the rest of the pack. It looks as if Ferrari are marginally ahead of McLaren.

Behind the top two theres a really good fight brewing. BMW seem to be improving from a tenuous start with the new car, and then we have Williams possibly slightly ahead of Fernando Alonsos Renault, Red Bull and Jarno Trullis Toyota.

Ferrari v McLaren

Ferrari have always been extremely strong in Melbourne; it just seems to suit their car almost every year.

Understandably, theyre trying to play down the pressure and expectations, and by the same token McLaren seem to be pumping themselves up.

I think the gap between them is not as big as we might initially have perceived. But you cant help but feel that Ferrari have the upper hand on the longer runs, though maybe only by a tenth of a second or so.

Crucially, the Ferrari appears more confidence-inspiring for the drivers, especially important with the deletion of traction control.

It looks as if McLarens rear tyre degradation is a bit worse than Ferraris; thats where Ferrari seem to have an advantage.

Seamless succession

The Maranello teams form is a great tribute to Jean Todt, Ross Brawn and Rory Byrne. Their crowning glory as professionals has been to build such a strong succession team.

To deliver the kind of results they did and then leave a really firm foundation for the future is very impressive.

Of course, the people who have taken the helm are not new to the team; Stefano Domenicali, Aldo Costa and the others have been trained up for some years and the transition has been smooth and evolutionary. Theyve kept the cohesion and momentum going, and thats the clever bit.

The new Kimi

From the testing form it looks as if Kimi Raikkonen has the edge over Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamiltons a bit ahead of Heikki Kovalainen.

The clear title favourite for me is Raikkonen. I think hes burst through his glass ceiling and hes got rid of all the frustration from the fact that he should have had at least one championship in his pocket already.

Hes a different man. Even just interviewing him for ITV, hes moved on: hes much more approachable and seems happier with F1 life.

He has the advantage of knowing Ferrari now, having the team right behind him, and knowing exactly how to maximise those control Bridgestone tyres after years of Michelin driving at McLaren.

Hes a free spirit who does what he wants to do, by and large, and Ferrari seem content to let him be.

Lessons for Lewis

I think the pressure is on Lewis. In my view the spygate ramifications will take at least a year to wash through McLaren theres still turmoil going on there to an extent and Lewis has got to both lead and galvanise the team with limited experience of such a massive challenge. His remarkable maturity will be tested to the limit.

I think the car will be very good and Lewis is easily fast and confident enough to carry on being sensational. But last year he was the rookie with nothing to lose and everything to gain; this year the expectations are so much higher.

He says that he is calm about all that, which is great news. And hes now got a year of experience to go with his immense natural speed and talent.

He needs to take wins when he can and maximise the points when he cant. Thats how Michael Schumacher did it, and if you look back at the champions they all followed that strategy.

I dont think Lewis has to start yielding in wheel-to-wheel combat or anything like that; hes just got to play the percentage game a bit more if hes not in the fastest car. Whereas last year he just went for gold on every single corner, to the point where in Brazil we almost wanted to shout at him!

But thats just the exuberance of a young driver wanting to grab every opportunity.

I wouldnt write him off for the title at all but personally I would rather be in Kimis shoes than Lewiss right now. Its a long year though.

The wingmen

I think both Massa and Kovalainen are in similar positions. In terms of ultimate pace theyre both an ounce behind their respective team-mates but when they hit the sweet spot with the set-up or are really in the groove, they are quite capable of beating them.

Heikki is plenty fast enough, as long as he doesnt have a pressure wobble like he did in the early part of last year.

I dont think Alonsos Renault team-mate Nelson Piquet Jr will trouble the Spaniard like Lewis did. Piquet is a quality young driver but hes got a lot to learn and a long way to go.

Williams revival

Its great to see Williams looking so strong over the winter. They havent got the resource and the might of the top two teams and I imagine that will show up more as the season unfolds.

But theyve got a fast car, and if Nico Rosberg drives like he did last year when he was a pleasure to watch they could be really strong.

Well have to wait and see whether they will be capable of taking points off Ferrari and McLaren in a straight fight. I think its more likely to happen on a wet day or when there are mechanical failures and a couple of first-corner shunts rather than on pure performance.

But its going to be one almighty struggle behind the top two.

BMW's new car blues

Theres some data that suggests that BMW are still by a fraction the best of the rest, although it does look as if theyve fallen slightly more towards the mid-pack rather than getting closer to the top two.

The drivers are still saying the F1.08 is harder to drive and less predictable than last years car.

What was absolutely clear from the first lap of practice at Melbourne last year was how thoroughly driveable and thrashable the BMW F1.07 looked. I remember saying on the TV it was the car I would most like to have a go in.

It seems as if they may have lost a little bit of that and, despite recent progress, usually you carry the fundamental characteristics of a car throughout its life: you tend to band-aid rather than solve these inherent problems.

Red Bull rivalry

David Coulthard seems in as good a form as Ive ever known him. He was very happy with the winter testing in that the new cars reliability has been a lot better and they appear to have a much better handle on tyre degradation over long runs.

That said, Red Bull havent found the performance gain they were hoping for. Theyve definitely closed the gap to the leaders but they havent established the raw pace that would nail them onto the back of a Ferrari.

I could see them leading the best of the rest group from time to time and I wouldnt rule out Toro Rosso latching onto the back of that group although you have to assume they will be a couple of tenths behind the new Red Bull until they get their hands on it.

Sebastian Vettel is a star of the future. It will be interesting to see how Sebastien Bourdais fares, because F1 is much more competitive than any other form of single-seater racing.

He grew up in the European scene and has good pedigree, but I think he might find it quite a challenge. Hes no slouch, though, and I wouldnt underestimate him.

More Honda heartache

It looks like Honda are in for another difficult year. Ross Brawn needs two or three years to turn the teams performance around and Jenson Button hasnt got that time and Rubens Barrichello certainly hasnt.

I can see Jenson having to find a lot of inner belief, certainly in the early part of the year.

For sure Ross will make a difference, theyve got the budget, theyre a good bunch of people and they won a race just 18 months ago. So all the ingredients are in there, its a question of how long it takes Ross to extract them.

I expect some frustrations for Jenson this year.
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RP · Mar 11, 2008

Thansk again for the thread and the link. Sounds like this guy has his finger on the pulse of the teams.

I will suggest, just to give Ted something to do today, that the real battle for the WDC by mid year will be between Kimi and Phil. I get the feeling that Lewis' karma is to take Alonso's role while Heikki haunts him as Lewis did to Alonso in 2007.

Lindsay_Ross · Mar 11, 2008

tifosiron said: ↑

Thansk again for the thread and the link. Sounds like this guy has his finger on the pulse of the teams.

I will suggest, just to give Ted something to do today, that the real battle for the WDC by mid year will be between Kimi and Phil. I get the feeling that Lewis' karma is to take Alonso's role while Heikki haunts him as Lewis did to Alonso in 2007.
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No problem! I found these early this morning (about 3am PST) but today I actually had to go search for them, as the main news sites were all reporting that Ron Dennis was Staying Put, Patrick Head smokes crack, and Briatore is a bedfellow with Alonso/Likes to Tease Black F1 Drivers.

All the headlines for the drama, nothing informative about the sport... gotta love the media!

As for your prediction... Let's agree to disagree. Kimi will have his hands fun with Lewis. Massa will have his hands full with staying on the track.

Senna3xWC · Mar 11, 2008

tifosiron said: ↑

I will suggest, just to give Ted something to do today, that the real battle for the WDC by mid year will be between Kimi and Phil.
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I think the battle between Kimi and Massa will be over by mid-season.

barbazza · Mar 11, 2008

Senna3xWC said: ↑

I think the battle between Kimi and Massa will be over by mid-season.
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You consider Bahrain mid-season?

Lindsay_Ross · Mar 11, 2008

barbazza said: ↑

You consider Bahrain mid-season?
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Bahrain TESTING!

Senna1994 · Mar 11, 2008

Great article and thanks for posting it.

R2112 · Mar 11, 2008

Senna1994 said: ↑

Great article and thanks for posting it.
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+1

Thanks Lindsay!

R2112 · Mar 11, 2008

Lindsay_Ross said: ↑

...Massa will have his hands full with staying on the track.
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*cough* Malaysia '07 *cough, cough*

Senna3xWC · Mar 12, 2008

I find it amusing that the February 28th issue of Autosport has a headline about Ferrari's incredible pace during testing and it is accompanied by a photo of Massa locking up the brakes.

That pretty well sums it up for me, an incredibly well designed car in the hands of an incompetent driver...

R2112 · Mar 12, 2008

Senna3xWC said: ↑

I find it amusing that the February 28th issue of Autosport has a headline about Ferrari's incredible pace during testing and it is accompanied by a photo of Massa locking up the brakes.
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+1

I thought that was pretty amusing as well.

Scuderia980 · Mar 12, 2008

Senna3xWC said: ↑

I find it amusing that the February 28th issue of Autosport has a headline about Ferrari's incredible pace during testing and it is accompanied by a photo of Massa locking up the brakes.

That pretty well sums it up for me, an incredibly well designed car in the hands of an incompetent driver...
Click to expand...

you caught that eh it was worth a chuckle.

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