New Plane Market in 2018 | Page 6 | FerrariChat

New Plane Market in 2018

Discussion in 'Aviation Chat' started by rob lay, Dec 19, 2017.

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, Skimlinks, and others.

  1. jcurry

    jcurry Two Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 16, 2012
    21,376
    In the past
    Full Name:
    Jim
    At the small airfield near my office there are a couple rows of open t-hangers. 20yrs ago they were full of active airplanes. Today it is a RV storage area. Similarly at Boeing Field in Seattle, the monthly tie-down area is half full of mostly non-active airplanes whereas 20 yrs ago it was full. GA in America is tending towards what you see in Europe.
     
  2. dmark1

    dmark1 F1 World Champ
    BANNED Owner

    Feb 26, 2008
    11,439
    Americas Team Headquarters
    Full Name:
    Mark
    Small town airports have seem to suffered the most...no question about it. Its really sad.

    I am sure Addison and other airports like it have a huge boost from Jet A sales. No question Jet A is the future of aviation.
     
  3. Jeff Kennedy

    Jeff Kennedy F1 Veteran
    BANNED Owner Silver Subscribed

    Oct 16, 2007
    6,546
    Edwardsville, IL
    Full Name:
    Jeff Kennedy
    What I see from the photos are mostly old piston aircraft. Single engine Piper, Baron, C-310 and with the 172 can't tell if it is an old one with a new paint job or a very recent one. The jet doesn't count as that is clearly in a different league of acquisition and operational cost.

    I remember the old days when Piper, Beech, Cessna, Mooney, Belanca and some others all did a fine business of selling new piston aircraft and the airports were full of these aircraft and their owners. Now, the production rates are low and new pistons are expensive. I see it as a huge spread between the weekend warrior pilots of old in their highly used aircraft and then those that play in the high 6 figure and up turbines. Even many of those turbine folks have a looming day of reckoning coming up midnight December 31, 2019.
     
  4. mikesufka

    mikesufka F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    Mar 4, 2006
    6,549
    Crosslake, MN
    Full Name:
    Mike Sufka
    What kind of jet on the far right in the first picture for us novices ?

    MDS

    Whoops: just read farther down - is that a Baron ?
     
  5. dmark1

    dmark1 F1 World Champ
    BANNED Owner

    Feb 26, 2008
    11,439
    Americas Team Headquarters
    Full Name:
    Mark

    Brand new 172, very nice baron and several Cirrus aircraft all 2007 - 2017. All flying today. Its not as bad as some would believe. Is the the 70's? Oh HELL no, on that we can agree! But then again, the 70's didn't have anywhere near the small turbine market that there is now. Could it be the people of the 70's SE planes have just reached the apex of their flying dreams? What is needed now are more young people in aviation. Of course when airports are stupidly fenced liked prison yards, where is that going to come from?
     
    Island Time likes this.
  6. Jason Crandall

    Jason Crandall F1 Veteran

    Mar 25, 2004
    6,373
    ATL/CHS/MIA
    Full Name:
    Jason
    The Mustang spends more than 50% of it's flying life below FL300. It can't stay airborne long enough. That means it has to land for fuel. What altitude is the airport? FL410? FL410 isn't high enough to clear most storm systems anyways. If what you say is true, Cessna wouldn't have discontinued building Mustangs. The market doesn't lie.

    If you want to talk about CJ3 and larger there is SOME weather clearing benefit there. However, the skies are so crowded nowadays, you don't get direct climb and direct descents. NYC, Chicago, South Florida all have ridiculous arrival procedures that keep you low after takeoff and bring you low too early in descent.

    The Mustang is a great buy at $900K. I recommend them all the time. But they've depreciated from $4MM to $900K because they lack utility. It's not just the Mustang.... It's every mini-jet (M2, HondaJet, Eclipse, Etc.). They can't hold enough fuel to enjoy the benefits of being a jet..... Jets gotta get high and stay high to make sense. CJ3, Phenom 300 and PC24 get high and stay high for hours and hours.

    I have another friend that just bought a really nice Phenom 100 for $1.3MM so there's no way Mustangs are selling for over $1MM.... not even nice ones. Like I said, if Mini-Jets worked I could sell my PC12, buy one and pocket millions. But then I'd be flying alone and landing for gas every hour.

    This thread is about the NEW airplane market. If you wanna talk USED, yes, the Mustang is a lot of bang for the buck for less than $1MM. No doubt.
     
  7. Jason Crandall

    Jason Crandall F1 Veteran

    Mar 25, 2004
    6,373
    ATL/CHS/MIA
    Full Name:
    Jason
    Anything using an FBO is "general aviation". There's no such thing as an "average pilot". If there are no airports there is no "general aviation". There aren't enough piston airplanes anymore to "feed" the monster.
     
  8. Jaguar36

    Jaguar36 Formula Junior

    Nov 8, 2010
    834
    Cherry Hill, NJ
    The problem is the cost of entry is prohibitive these days. Take a look at the chart below comparing the cost of a Cessna 172 to inflation. In the 70s and early 80s it was about $20k (About $80k in todays dollars) for a base 172. Now its almost $300k. While there are certainly ways to make it work, it's a huge deterrent for all but the most well off of folks.

    Image Unavailable, Please Login
     
  9. Jason Crandall

    Jason Crandall F1 Veteran

    Mar 25, 2004
    6,373
    ATL/CHS/MIA
    Full Name:
    Jason
    No doubt it's all about money.

    But at the same time, there are more million $$+ boats being sold now than ever before. The airplane market is hot hot. Cirrus is selling loads of airplanes. Aviation is not dying..... just the opposite.
     
  10. Tcar

    Tcar F1 Rookie

    #135 Tcar, Apr 12, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2018
    Nope, Cessna Citation
    The Baron is next to the Cessna single in the first pic, next to the Piper.
    A Baron is a twin engine Bonanza.
     
  11. Tcar

    Tcar F1 Rookie

    I read the two biggest reasons for the price change upward are
    Cost of Avionics and
    Slush fund for possible (probable) litigation against Cessna, Beech, etc. The later is much of the reason that Cessna stopped building General Aviation planes for a period.
    True?
     
  12. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
    Staff Member Admin Miami 2018 Owner

    Dec 1, 2000
    59,406
    Southlake, TX
    Full Name:
    Rob Lay
    I think so, but everyone started producing again after a new law helping to protect them.
     
  13. Juan-Manuel Fantango

    Juan-Manuel Fantango F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 18, 2004
    12,355
    Full Name:
    Juan
    No, but I could just picture it lol:D I like the way you fly so to speak.
     
  14. Juan-Manuel Fantango

    Juan-Manuel Fantango F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 18, 2004
    12,355
    Full Name:
    Juan
    That's so cool. We'll do it for sure, and also Charleston. You know the market and area... Asheville is hot, so is a towm many might overlook, Greenville, SC. We're up in gods country -Clemson. Speaking of that, and never missing an opertunity, take a look at this property that Julie, my pilot fiance has for sale. Student houseing or luxuary appartment/condo's should go here. And look at what Casto is doing just across from this. Four hundred fifty feet of shore line, the last great piece left in Clemson. Develope it or pass it along please:D

    Look us up if you hit KAND or KCEU

    http://www.loopnet.com/Listing/894-Tiger-Blvd-Clemson-SC/3892213/

    http://www.castoinfo.com/shared_assets/property_brochures/schv-overview.pdf
     
  15. mikesufka

    mikesufka F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    Mar 4, 2006
    6,549
    Crosslake, MN
    Full Name:
    Mike Sufka
    Gotcha Thanks.

    MDS
     
  16. sigar

    sigar F1 Rookie
    Silver Subscribed

    Apr 30, 2005
    3,375
    NorCal
    Jason is polarizing, but his perception of the aviation market has always been spot on IMO.

    Mark, we have a lot in common, but Cessna discontinuing the Mustang supports Jason’s views.
     
  17. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 5, 2002
    23,988
    Portland, Oregon
    Full Name:
    Don
    Unfortunately, it does seem to be going that way, slowly. My kids are learning at a little airport with a bunch of hangars, and there is still a decent community there, but it's getting smaller. One thing which has helped enormously is the homebuilt phenomenon. Van's Aircraft, located here, does a big business and you see their airplanes all over the place at smaller airports. Same for other kit builders.

    But in general, the private pilot community seems to be getting older and there don't seem to be the younger people coming in, or at least not as much.

    There is a local aviation "country club" around here, and I attended one of their events as a guest of a friend of mine who was making a presentation. With one exception, I think I was the youngest guy in the room by about 10 years, and I'm 51!
     
  18. jcurry

    jcurry Two Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 16, 2012
    21,376
    In the past
    Full Name:
    Jim
    Through a FBO flight school or an independent instructor? Used to be easy to find a small field FBO with an active flight school. Now mostly you need to go to a controlled field and then it will be a Part 141 school. Still independents out there but it is not the same experience and is indicative of the health of small airplane GA.

    Yep, Van's has single-handedly kept small GA alive.
     
  19. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 5, 2002
    23,988
    Portland, Oregon
    Full Name:
    Don
    It's a "flight school," but not 141. You are right that there are a lot of big 141 schools out there. On the other hand, just as a datapoint, my son found a similar small airport with a little flight school all the way across the country in Massachusetts where he goes to college, so they're not too hard to find. You just have to look a bit.
     
  20. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 5, 2002
    23,988
    Portland, Oregon
    Full Name:
    Don
    I think that part of the problem for factory-built new airplanes today is that there is a lot of labor in the supply chain, and that's simply gotten more and more expensive relative to inflation. There just isn't as much automation in aircraft production, or engine production, or parts production, etc. as there is in other industries. This partially explains why kits are so much more affordable, and even pre-built kits are more affordable.

    The other issue is that airplanes are very long-lived assets. Of my two, one was built in 2001 (and still feels new) and the other one in 1980... and there's no reason both of them won't be fine for another 50 years. The reason for such long lives is twofold-- good maintenance, and relatively easy upgradability.
     
  21. jcurry

    jcurry Two Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 16, 2012
    21,376
    In the past
    Full Name:
    Jim
    Van's semi-completed kits are not US made (Indonesia IIRC). Many parts for Cessnas are made overseas (China and elsewhere?). In other words very cheap labor compared to US. On the other hand Maule airframes are 100% built in USA, and cost significantly less than a Cessna.
     
  22. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 5, 2002
    23,988
    Portland, Oregon
    Full Name:
    Don
    Some of the difference is avionics. You can't get a new 172 or an Archer without a G1000. Maule, I believe, gives you nothing. A new Maule is, at the cheapest, I think $280,000? A new Skyhawk is $378,000. Try and put a G1000 in the Maule for less than $100k.

    That's the difference, right there.
     
  23. jcurry

    jcurry Two Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 16, 2012
    21,376
    In the past
    Full Name:
    Jim
    Except a Maule will out perform a 172 by a large margin.
     
  24. BMWairhead

    BMWairhead Formula 3

    Sep 11, 2009
    1,033
    Portland, OR
    Full Name:
    Ted
    I grew up in Lock Haven, PA in the late 70s/early 80s. One of the reasons I love small planes is because there were always freshly manufactured Cubs, Archers, Cherokees, etc., etc. flying overhead. While I was in Junior High, production moved to Florida. It was sad to see Piper slide. I’m fortunate now to live near a museum that has a strong Piper content (WAAAM)...across the country from where I learned to love small planes.
     
  25. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 5, 2002
    23,988
    Portland, Oregon
    Full Name:
    Don
    That means nothing... haven't you learned that? My Turbo Commander will out-perform any King Air made in 1980, yet which one is still in production? It will still out-perform King Airs made today (other than the 350) and cost less to operate, yet does anyone care? No. The Cheyenne 400LS will out-perform any small turboprop ever made, then or now... doesn't matter.
     

Share This Page