Porsche owner looking to enter the brand.

Hi everyone,

I'm a long time Porsche owner ('87 Carrera 3.2, '97 993 Carrera S, '21 C4S Coupe) and am considering taking the leap towards an exotic -- likely a Ferrari 488 Spider. I'm starting to get educated on the differences on the 458/488/F8 line and the craziness of the market. I'm inclined not to explore a 296 as the looks don't really appeal to me.

Since I've only been following the market for a short while and you all have much more historical knowledge than I, what sort of premiums are being sought on 488 Spiders from pre-COVID until now? My quick read tells me it's about $100K? Is that accurate? I can afford it, but the practical side of me feels uncomfortable paying such a premium and might just wait it out for a bit.

Appreciate your thoughts.

 

I’m now seeing 488 Spiders selling at or above their original sticker. That includes me as a buyer. My best guess is that the remaining ICE cars will continue going up given Ferrari going the electric route now.
Don’t wait too long!

 

THAT ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Should be on a T-Shirt

 

Hi Aunkur - Welcome to the wonderful (I mean that BTW - not being facetious) world of Ferrari Chat and possibly Ferrari ownership! I am by no means an expert but much like you I took the plunge from Porsche ownership (05 997 C2) to Ferrari ownership (1995 355 GTS) in late 2010 so perhaps I can help. Additionally, I have co-owned various Porsches and Ferraris over the years and currently have a 2018 GT3 Touring along with my beloved 355 and a 2014 458 Spider.

The market for 458s and 488s (458s moreso) has been nutty lately and everything is at a premium. That said, there are still some reasonable offerings out there if you are patient. I generally subscribe to the "if you can do it and want to to it then just do it" mantra but you might end up paying more now than later - On the other hand you might want to execute now before it goes up any more. Pros and cons for both.

You will find an amazing array of backgrounds and viewpoints on here and immense knowledge depth - as well as some humor I am happy to help and easy to bounce things off of as well as many others on here who have knowledge of Porsche, Ferrari and many/most other marques.

Enjoy and welcome

 

I would focus on 48&. I have owned all 3 and currently still own 2. 458’s - not enough in the market right now. I want to trade my 458 coupe in for spider but so few available right in - so I am holding tight. F8 are getting enormous premium. The best value in the current market is 488 - IMO. They are all great and you will love them all.

 

I tend to agree. Timing secondary car markets is like timing the stock market. I mean technically you can do it but really who knows what's going to happen in the future. Plus unlike stocks, every day you wait it out is a day you don't have a Ferrari.

Of the 458/488/F8 family I've only driven a 458 so I can't speak to the others, but I love my 458. Like @rob lay stated, Ferraris are just different from Porsches. They have quirks and flaws where Porsches are expertly engineered German machines. But even the lowliest Ferrari turns heads, which can't be said of Porsches.

I'm of the opinion that there is nothing rational about buying a supercar. So listen to your gut and don't overthink it.

 

How much do you think the secondary market will “correct?” Do you think someone who paid $345K for a 488 Spider in secondary market 6 months later will take $245? A year later?
The answer, on average, is decidedly “No.”
So, only you can figure out what is the percentage chance for some softening vs. stable to increased pricing. And then balance that against the time of lost use over that period of time. Does $20K in a year matter to you? If “yes,” then perhaps Ferrari isn’t the brand for you because outside of pricing issues you can get hit with a $20K bill (weird repair issue...most are very reliable, accident and resultant depreciation, etc.)
If $20K or $50K doesn’t keep you awake at night then I’d suggest searching for the best car for you and when you find it, pull the trigger. Life is short and there is no car in the world that compares to Ferrari (this comes from a guy who adores his ‘18 911 GT3 manual, and has a 488 Spider).

 

Get some seat time. Really find out if the car is right for you and which model calls you.

 

I would wait 12 months. Either gas prices or the Fed will 100% for sure put us in a recession in a year and that will be a better time to pick up a car. Prices are not going up for sure. So you have nothing to lose by waiting (other than a year without a Ferrari).

That being said, I don't see prices correcting by more than 10-15% unless something really crazy happens to the economy. People are hoarding these cars because they fear they won't be able to get a V8 in the future.

 

Welcome to the forum. I daily drive a '21 C4S and entered the world of Ferrari ownership last year with a 458. I am in love with this car, not many things in life make me grin ear to ear both during and after the drive, this car truly makes you happy, like the truest form of simple happiness. Although I love the 488, the 458 is the one to get you into the brand. I am hooked, looking for another to add and have a 296 on order, and I plan on keeping the 458 for the long term. Good luck in your journey.

 

My $0.02

This is the best time to sell, and the worst time to buy.
I suggest waiting till things settle down. Unless you have to have it.

 

I've driven a 718S and a '20 9114S - incredibly well built, fun and fast cars.

They have absolutely nothing on the emotional, engaging driving experience of a 488 or even (seriously) my California 30 (currently listed for sale here )

458 Spider should be locked down shortly..... holding my breath.

 

Thank you everyone for the helpful feedback.

I generally subscribe to both the Yolo philosophy of life and also the never-try-to-time-investments theory (for all assets, including valuable cars) but for some reason I’m having trouble applying it to a Ferrari purchase. I’ll be test driving a 488 Spider this weekend; perhaps that will push me over the line

re: 458 vs 488, while I haven’t been able to compare them firsthand, I certainly get the appeal of NA feel/sound/response but I do think I’d appreciate the reported tighter feel and added compliance of the 488 suspension.

I’m also stunned at the price difference between coupe and spider!

thanks again!

 

Correct

This was my strategy moving from Porsche:
Pretrade 992 Turbo S within 12 month sales tax credit window--valuable trade that moved me in the order cue
Order new F8--higher entry price than preowned but paid no premium

 

Did you hear the story about Tom Brady's last touchdown football sold for $500K at auction.
The next day he announced his return, the football price dropped to $1200.

I don't see the economy changing the price for a luxury item at $500K.
The scarcity of the car and the demand will dictate the price.
The F8 is one of the shortest production runs of the F series less than 1,700 to the US a year.

As many have said "Buy what you like".

 

True but scarcity and desirability have always been a factor with cars like these, but we didn’t have such premiums pre-COVID.

But a counterpoint to my point above ….

It’s also likely the case that new price floors are being set for these cars. Unless owners are willing to take a loss to get out of a car, supply will remain locked up until prices are attractive enough for sellers.

This is the same trend we’re seeing with air-cooled 993s. I bought a ‘97 C2S in September for $125K. Thought I’d overpaid. Could easily get $150K for it now, but I’d never let it go. Bought my ‘21 C4S custom order for $2,500 under MSRP last summer. Same car is at least $25K over MSRP today.

Basically what I’m saying is, no one has any idea what’s gonna happen with prices, so best bet is just to buy what you like when you like

Thanks for helping me answer my own question

 

I think we are agreeing, but scarcity in the market is due to the end of the ICE era. Most car manufactures will be all-electric by 2030, Ferrari is full-hybrid already. These are the last models of the F series ICE engines.

IMHO: Demand: economy and stock market performance isn't driving the price. The demand is and has always been high.
Supply and lack of vehicles with NO more coming is driving a frenzy to scoop up the last ones. (Human nature says people don't want to miss out). Prior to F8, you didn't know what the next V8 would be or how long it would be produced. You didn't know if the next V8 would put your current F car to shame.
All these questions are now answered, we know the total number of 458, 488 and F8's out there (that's it). Supply is FIXED. Demand will continue to be high as there are no more. I don't know if COVID had an affect (buying another Ferrari vs a third vacation home), but indefinitely stopping the supply pushed the prices through the roof.

 

Fair pts!

 

I have a GT3RS I track regularly and I recently picked up a 458. I much prefer driving the 458. Don't get me wrong the RS is quick, precise, surgical, and comfortable if you want it to be, but I'm not as emotionally connected to it as the 458. The looks, sound, smell, etc of the Italia is intoxicating. On track day sure I'd take the RS over the 458 but for anything else the 458 is that much more of an "experience." I know you're shopping for 488, but I would check out the 458 as well. I've known at least a couple buddies who jumped on the 488 and instantly regretted it and have traded them in for 458. I don't want to start another 458 vs 488 discussion, just my personal experience and opinion.

 

100% agree with the above. I also have buddies in 488 who wish they went 458. The experience is truly and experience on many levels.

 

Welcome to Ferrari.

We all know a buddy that might have gone backwards from 488 to 458, but thousands of people have gone from 458 to 488.

They are both great. One is older, slower and less thrilling but was transformational. One is faster, more thrilling and doesn't scream at 9000 rpms.

And now the F8 is even faster. Ferrari Evolution.

And yes - I have a 2009 Ferrari I get the nostalgia aspect, but to me the 488 is just more fun that the 458.

 

Big Porsche guy here as well and have been an owner since '05 and have had a new '09 C2S, and '05 Cayenne S and currently have these 2 pups. '21 Cayenne GTS coupe and '84 Targa. Way off on the $100k, unless it has extremely high mileage. Look on BAT and EBay for comps.
PS: IMHO I'd go 458, since it's the last naturally aspirated V8, 9k rpm scream and phenom exhaust note w/ no turbo lag, last mid engine Pininfarina design, first F1 wheel and w/ Schumacher input, etc.
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There’s never a predictable good time. And speculation about whether Tom Brady would stay retired, certainly didn’t pan out for the guy who bought that football.

What is predictable, however, is that Ferrari no longer makes 458s, meaning no more mid engine, naturally aspirated cars with a 9000 rpm redline. Everything since has had a turbo, or now hybrid drivetrain. This is unlike Porsche making 911 GT3 Tourings after people thought the 911 R would be the last manual, naturally aspirated cars.

And the finite supply of 458s is smaller than you might think, if you take into account how there are cars that have been wrecked, and in “odd” color combinations. Go for it.

 

And the other thing that happens almost overnight is that as soon as there is a perception for a car being an appreciating asset the owner immediately delays on selling thinking higher prices are coming, and potential buyers get more anxious to buy because of the FOMO principle. Supply immediately drops, and demand immediate rises and over a very short period of time prices sky rocket. The buyers who then jump in paying that premium aren’t willing to turn around and sell at a loss anytime soon (baring any other personal financial difficulties) and so the supply continues to stay suppressed. And so it goes....IMO the bottom will only fall out if there is a far superior product made available and for lovers of NA screaming ICE exotic and sports cars I don’t see that EVER happening.