Predicting value of 430s and 458s

Hello everyone I was hoping you more experienced Ferrari guys could help me understand the estimated depreciation/value of the 430 and 458. I am not going to call a purchase of one of these an "investment" however I would really like to find a model/year that will have a bit of predictability and a leveling out of depreciation so i can drive it for a bit and resell for close to my purchase price- or maybe a bit more if i find the right deal. Truthfully... i am only aware of the most obvious concepts like when a new model is released, the previous model takes a big hit and high mileage= less value. (and having the car worked on at a non dealer will hurt the value too, of course)
Beyond that, the algorithm to figure out how much these two cars will depreciate over the next 3-5 years is a mystery to me.

I would love to hear your predictions on how these cars market value will play out. For example... how low might a high milage 430 go- and level out? When the next version (special, etc) of the 488 comes out, how much will it affect the 458 Italia? Is it possible that a 458 could get down to 100K in a few years...like the 430?

Please educate me I would greatly appreciate the insight.
Thank you guys!! have a good day.

 

lmao, great first post.

 

This is posted in the wrong section so it should be moved.

I don't personally think 458s will go down to 100k. Reason for that is because I don't really see F1 360s going under 50k so let's assume a 430 will be slightly more around 80-100k. The 458 is more beautiful and faster than the 430 so that's why I think that.

I guess a big factor is the DCT transmission in the 458 and how reliable it will be.

 

Thank you for your response! I apologize for the post being in the wring section.

 

Why is that? What is a first post supposed to look like?

 

If you want to play it safe, you should consider a 328/348/355/360, depending on how confortable you are with older cars. These have either fully depreciated (don't think a decent 360 will go lower than this) or have already started to rise (especially the 328 - maybe you could buy one when the next market correction will price them a little down). Of course you need to factor maintenance costs, which will inevitably be higher for the older cars.

IMO the 430 will still depreciate for some time. The 458 has still years of depreciation ahead.

 

Unless you buy a limited edition model like a Scuderia or Speciale you will lose money on it. I agree a 360 is probably depreciated to around the lowest level. But no one knows.

You have a long way to go before you see a 458 at 100K. You will be lucky to find a good 430 at that price. FWIW we just bought a 2012 458 Italia 2 months ago for 225K.

Not to beat you up when you just arrive here, but do not think of a car of any sort as an investment. Buy what you can afford, drive the snot out of it, then it will be worth what it's worth when you're done with it.

 

seems like if you're worrying about this stuff maybe find a different type of car

 

(thats what i did)

 

+1

 

Thank you guys for the info.. just to REPEAT- I am not looking to buy a 430 or 458 as an investment. As for budget, it's not the concern. It's about value sustained or lost. Also, im not hell bent on simply owning a Ferrari..just to have any Ferrari. I like 430s and of course i like 458s more... if there was a way to determine the overall pace of depreciation mixed with the chance of finding an under.priced car, would give me the ability to drive one for a bit, sell it, and not lose much on the deal...or better. It's just a way to have a bit more fun with money that is tied up (yes...more risky than most slow/boring investments). I have friends that have been doing this for years... and have made a TON of money in some cases- and had amazing cars to play with (and care for) in the mean time. Unfortunately, those guys know nothing about modern Ferraris or I'd be asking them....
Thanks again for those that responded!

 

I don't know that there's any algorithm for depreciation or collectibility.
If there is, someone pls tell me when the value of a mondial will skyrocket the way a Dino has....I will buy 10 of them.
My 76 corvette never appreciated the way a 65 would have. Go figure! Lol. But in its day, we had a lot of fun together...before it became a cool car in an "ironic" way. So that's what I was thinking about when it's new buyer hauled it away for pennies on the dollar relative to everything I put into it as well as inflation adjustment.

 

360s and 430s seem to be a good value. 430's depending on which one still will depreciate and the 458s still have a ways to go.

if you are looking for something to potentially appreciate you need to get a special edition car like a scud.

 

IMHO:

348/355/360 are at their bottoms already.

Early 430s are now near bottom. An "average" early 430 will always be ~25-35% more than a comparable 360, due to the more modern look and big power bump.

Late 430s (07-09) still have a ways to fall. In 5 years, there will be little difference between the price of 05 to 09 cars. The will all be in the low 100s with condition being more important than the model year. Just like the 348/355/360 are now.

458? Will be ~50% more than a comparable 430 for the foreseeable future. They will slide at ~$10-20K per year until they are ~$150Kish. To answer your question, I doubt the 458 will ever be $100K, because it is so much more modern than the ferraris occupying the $50-100K range.

None other than the special models or 6 speeds have any hope of skyrocketing in price, there were just too many made.

That's my two bits.

 

Keep it simple.

You will loose money on the car if you own it long enough and depending when you sell. Period. If you buy now and nothing at all breaks and you sell during the next recession you will loose money. If you buy the car and something breaks, you will loose money.

If you get lucky and buy the car during a recession and it turns out to be a model or variation that the market deems valuable you will get lucky and sell it for more than you make on it. Provided nothing major breaks of course or that repair is less than the market value increase.

Will the 458 and 430 drop in value from todays numbers. Yes IMHO. Will the 458 drop to $100k? Doubt it in the next 5-10 years. Inflation and rising prices of used cars in general will prevent it. Everybody wants the 458 to be the price of a base 911. That's why it won't happen anytime soon!

When I bought mine in 2010 there was talk of 360's dropping to $30k. "Because they made so many". (Naturally 348 and 355's would retain their value.. but 360's would drop) That didn't happen. And I suspect the tremendous drop all the buyers want won't happen either.

 

It's too hard to say...we can EASILY have a big recession in the timeframe you outline (7+ years of a poor recovery coupled with the anti-business legislation in that same period- we'll likely not be recovered from 08/09 recession by the time the next one hits). By way of example, the price I paid for a 360 in 2009 was 33% off the price the seller was originally looking to get when he put it on the market just before the downturn- and I think he was glad to move the car when I bought it in late 09 after it was on and off the market for 12-18 months. It's not just that these cars are not an investment (which you state is not your intention), it is that they are TOYS! Not needed to put food on the table if you will, and if/when the next recession hits hard to justify 4 or 5 figure maintenance bills each year if you're out of a job. I'm not saying to not purchase the car, but your concern is one that is justifiable, and you need to go into this with eyes open. Instead of dreaming that the car will not depreciate or even appreciate, you should be be thinking of if I buy a car today (finance or with cash), what will my situation be like if I have to sell it in 2 years for 33% less...if financing, will I be underwater and have to write a big check to pay off the balance to sell the car because I can't/don't want to pay the maintenance or insurance anymore? Can't drive the car uninsured, need to maintain it to keep it running/preserve value...if the values are dropping, did I make the right choice by buying this car thinking it wouldn't depreciate or was I in the back of my mind thinking it would appreciate and I could drive it for 3-4 years at little to no cost?

To throw in the Rich Dad Poor Dad philosophy, Ferraris- and all toys- are a cash flow liability, NOT an "asset"

 

355s are on a significant rise.

 

Because they are so beautiful. (A modern classic)

 

I would wait since the 360 F1 are still depreciating pretty bad, if you look at the ads on autotrader and ebay you can tell that these cars on a whole are not moving (nice red tan cars definitely move faster than the rest). I cannot see a way that the 430 F1 does not continue to depreciate, I cannot keep track of the amount of owners that have sold their 430 to get into a 458, C7 Z06, LP 560, Huracan, or Mclaren, and I rarely hear anyone that is truly looking at their 430 as a "keeper".

 

hey id just like to point out that the 360s have gone up in value... over the recent months on autotrader.. they were near 43k now they are at around 50k.. just my 2 cents and for the 430 theyll eventually go down... other than the scuds and cs. again just what i think. and the 458s have slightly increased but i feel like they are at where they should be... most cars are so low they are starting to rise in price nowadays. if you want an investment you might need to spend big bucks but an cheaper one would be a f335 and if your not loyal you could always get an sls amg gullwing ofc..

 

Yeah but how long should you wait? Things will never be perfect so may as well buy now and enjoy driving.

 

All figures given in today's dollars to avoid inflation issues.

$50,000 - $60,000.

Yes. In about 8-10 years with a little wiggle room for economic downturns (recessions = good time to buy luxury cars) a 458 should be about where the 430 is.

All of this is just my 2 cents. Spend it as you choose.

 

I agree...this will sound obviously biased coming from a 355 owner, but I won't be moving 'up' to a 360 or 430 (exception challenge stradale, but those have already taken off). I'm just not a fan of the design. 458, love it!!! So yes I would always pay a premium for a 458 over a 360/430...and if others have the same thinking, that will keep their value somewhat higher even at their bottom wherever it ends up.

 

Assuming good but not excellent condition cars that have normal miles-

The 458 could hit around $135,000 when they get to be 10 years old

430 F1 will be more desirable than 360 F1 due to power, reliability, no belts, etc. 360 won't go under $50,000 so I don't think the 430 will go under $70,000.

430 6spd, scud, 360 6spd, challenge will always be worth more than F1 cars, but some might debate a 430 F1 vs 360 6spd factoring in price, etc... So maybe another reason 430s keep a bit more value than what's happened with 360 F1s.

Ferraris are also getting more complicated and expensive, so that can stabilized depreciation too.

Either way you're looking at a potential $40k hit on either a 430 or 458 over ~4 years