Predicting value of 430s and 458s

Remember the 488 is only just hitting the streets. As those drop 458s will take a massive resale hit. The cycle never fails.

 

Hmm... I'm wondering about this. There are speculators (dealers) that are buying these and they sit waiting for the prices to rise. But.. the end buyer consumer who buys the car from the dealership, are they driving the car? At least as much as a Ferrari driver will drive it. 500 miles/yr? I don't know if I see many private owners buying the car and letting it sit. The one gentleman at C+C who has a manual 430 spider drives it to C+C every other week.

 

I've seen the opposite. Everyone I know who has gone out of their way to buy a manual late production Ferrari bought it to drive it and they all drive them. Heck, I bought a manual 360 last year and I put 1500 miles on it so far. I probably put close to the same on my 550 and 348 Challenge in that time, too. No one is putting away manual cars to not drive them.

Also, if you really believe that the only reason that late manual transmission cars are selling for so much is because "prospectors have brainwashed people," I would like to know your thoughts on the Kennedy assassination, 9/11, the moon landing, and everything else that has wild conspiracy theories.

The reason that manual 360s, F430s 575Ms, and related are going for such high premiums is a combination of two things: First, there is the typical supply and demand and there are more people who want these cars than there are cars available but the more significant reason is that cars like a manual 360 or a 550 are such incredible cars for the money. There is nothing for $200k that I like more than my manual 360 I'm not alone. That's not enough money to make me even consider parting with it. The price would have to get much higher for many people to find a car that they like as much for an even swap. And not to turn this into a manual-F1 debate but the manual transmission absolutely transforms a car like the 360. I never wanted any of these cars in F1 and when the time came to buy one, only a manual would do. That's why I chose the 550 over the 575M and why I chose a manual 360. They go great with my older Ferraris which were only available in manual. I'm sorry that I couldn't buy them sooner but that's not how life works; you buy them when you can afford them and the right cars present themselves.

To the OP's original question, here's something to think about. If you're buying a car because you love it and want to use it and enjoy it, would you rather buy a 10k mile example of the exact car you want today and drive it 1500 miles a year and enjoy it and take care of it, and lose $20k over 10 years in depreciation OR buy the same model car in 10 years with 30k miles and drive it the same amount of miles and not lose any money in depreciation but spend over $20k in preventative maintenance and replacing parts that are due for replacement.

There is no such thing as a free ride; you have to pay the piper at some point.

 

Or like the Fram oil filter man put it: "You can pay me now or you can pay me later."

Not trying to pile on the point.

 

I believe you misunderstood me.

My point is that there are plenty of manuals for those who really want to drive them.

Unfortunately, since MT cars are now a small percentage of production, prospectors are driving them up. Hence, these cars are now viewed as collectibles (sic). That brings in the non-driving investment crowd, which means there are not enough MT cars available.

If you are the true enthusiast who bought the manual car for all the right reasons, what do you do when you wake up one day and discover your 130K 599 MT car (that nobody else originally wanted) is now going for over $600K? Would you drive it? If your rich, probably. Otherwise, you'll likely sell to some collector and it will sit.

Fortunately, there are plenty of 360 MT cars and they have been obtainable. Would hate to see those prices go crazy too.

Of course, if Ferrari did decide to resume production of MT cars, this whole crazy MT market would go into free-fall. I would like to see that.

 

I'm still driving mine, a lot. 22000 and counting.

 

That is highly unlikely to ever happen. Highly unlikely.

 

Unlikely but he's correct if they did bring manuals back older manual cars would collapse in value. Lets be honest here everything is hyper fast these days. If ferrari want to stand out pure driver racer cars may be the best way to fend off the competitors which would all look like poseur cars compared to raw manual trans ferraris. Just my two cents.

 

Agree 100%. BUT the market spoke. Few bought MT units. They wanted F1. If MT units were 80% of units sold, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Even Porsche is eliminating them. Or moving in that direction.

 

The market spoke, but it is beginning to speak again very strongly in the opposite direction. If people are really willing to pay a huge premium for manuals, a lot more than brand new Ferraris are selling for, it will eventually make sense for them to offer them again to capture that demand. Of course doing so would immediately erode the premium but as a business they will follow whatever the market dictates and the latest manual craze is pretty strong to be ignored. Only time will tell.

 

Actually porsche is bringing back the manual for the gt3 due to demand. Apparently for a the car they make that touts driver fun and engagement, the manual was the popular choice!

 

This is a great point. Markets are usually ahead of the curve, and maybe there's a new trend coming as people are starting to miss what they can no longer have.

 

Fixed it for you.

You guys are assuming the new Ferrari buyer and the used buyer are the same. They're not. The manual market attests to that. Regarding manual 599's... I wanted one at $130 but it was beyond my price point. With what.. less than 50 in the country? Sellers can ask whatever they want (too much now IMHO).

 

Not only that but Ferrari would be taking a huge step backwards if they created a manual car now, and I say that as someone who loves manual cars.

Here is the issue. Once cars start getting closer to 5 lbs per hp, they start reaching the limits of most drivers in many situations. Look at the Carrera GT - 3043 lbs and 605 hp. All kinds of crashes and then the subsequent BS lawsuits to Porsche that they made a car that's too dangerous.

To fix this, the manufacturers have to put in some pretty advanced electronic aids. What's the 488 GTB? 3400lbs and 661 hp? One of the things that people rave about is the side slip control, the traction control, e-diff technology, etc. etc. etc. Without it, the car would be sort of an unruly beast, maybe a lot like the F50 GT.

To put a manual transmission in a car like that would seriously hamper many of those technological advancements. They would have to make a slower car in order to have a proper manual. Not only that but it would negate much of the technology that Ferrari worked hard to put in the car for seamless operation.

Lastly, the manual transmission that Porsche has in the 991 is more of a hybrid than a real manual. The car matches revs for the driver on downshifts. What kind of manual is that? It's like having a dummy shift lever in the middle but the car is still doing the work on the shifts by managing the throttle. If that's the case, why not just do a paddle car?

I don't think that any of this is a big deal. If you love manual Ferraris, there are plenty out there for buyers. And the best part is, they're not contrived concoctions with the sole purpose of trying to put a shift lever in a car where it doesn't belong. They're real manual cars with all of the accompanying technology (or lack thereof) and power suited to a real manual transmission.

I have a 488 Speciale or Lightweight or whatever it will be called on order. I don't normally order new Ferraris but I did because I think that this would be the last new Ferrari I could get before they start getting really out of control in the technology department with things like 4WS, hybrid technology, and other things that I really don't want. I have no illusions that Ferrari will one day bring back a manual transmission.

 

Tough to disagree with this. For the Ferrari brand, the manual transmission ship already sailed a while ago. But IMHO, if Ferrari were to ever bring back a manual, it'd likely be under a relaunched Dino brand. I'd envision something like Alfa 4C-like construction but with a 375-400 hp V6 with 6 spd manual as an option and much lower tech than Ferrari's current lineup.

 

Best advice ever!

 

Yup, this would be flipping great, and folks are clamoring for this but I don't know how much broad appeal there is beyond car guys who know the Dino branding. Somebody on here actually looked up that Fcar still 'owns' the Dino brand and could slap it on a car tomorrow. I'd flipping love it but if the guys behind the gate squashed a fledgling stratos project a few yrs ago I'd wonder if they put the blessing on a new Dino with a stick that would be even closer to a 'real' Ferrari.

One thing is for certiain-you won't ever see another manual with the horse on it.

 

Porsche tried that recently, by making their coveted GT-3 PDK-only. The backlash has been fierce. Now we see the 911R (MT only) and I'm hearing the MT GT-3 will return.

And just try and track down a Cayman GT-4 or Boxster Spyder - both MT only.

 

I am going to weigh in with my opinion/prediction. Again, its my opinion. Which is worth NOTHING.

All of the porsche manual transmission thing I believe is hype from the brand that is been hyped the most the last 24 months or so... Brought to a segment of people that want the cool new and shiny.

Porsche guys tend to be techies. They have the latest smartphones and smart watches etc... ipads and gizmos.

PDK came out and it was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Fastest shifting smoothest shifting... best thing for a lap time etc... it was praised as gifts from above.

Then this manual thing came in and suddenly it was cool to be a 6 speed guy and you were not a REAL car guy unless you had a 6 speed. So Tulip mania... I mean Porsche Mania spilled over into 6 speed mania. I believe it is a trend and it will go out of vogue. I am not saying the GT3 RS and GT3 RS 4.0 are not awesome cars worthy of collections and huge value. They are worthy on there own merits not just a 6 speed. If you want a 6 speed experience you can buy a scion. Meerly having a 6 speed doesn't make it collectible or awesome. Maserati cambiocorsas with 6 speeds are truly awful... even worse than the f1 version. Ive had both. the 6 speed is terrible.

i predict as long as the competition keeps putting down faster and faster times and has more and more bragging rights... the 6 speed thing will die down. Plus... finding young people who know how to drive them is oddly becoming rare. Who knows... it could be like trying to drive a model T at somepoint.

Also, I predicted correctly on this forum several times... that "the last manual transmission argument" is utter BS. Porsche and Ferrari still make new cars. If there is a market they will exploit it. If they could charge 100k or 200k for a manual transmission in an f12.... don't be surprised. I wouldn't be surprised if they do that on the NEXT car as they would have time to plan that into the next car. Its nearly impossible to add it to cars that are currently at market or near market. A massively expensive and rare transmission option is possible. You can say im crazy... but you might eat your hat.

Ferrari said no daytona convertibles.... and then daytona spider.
Porsche said no more manuals... and now manual 911r and gt3.

Never say never.

Now back on topic. I think 430s will be the Ferrari 328s of the future. They will hold due to lower maintinance (as long as the rear diff and f1 issues don't keep costing 20k)I don't think you will ever see a good example for less than 70-75k. Now a 458. A good possibility those cars won't come in less than 100k its just so much car and done so right and a monumental leap forward in car, service costs, comfort and performance. If a 430 and 458 were air planes. a 430 might be the wright brothers first succesful plane vs the f458 as an f22. Ok maybe the 430 is a dc3 (although no where near as beautiful) and the 458 is a c17

While the cars are only a year apart the difference between them is as large as several decades. The 458 will be the marking of the new generation of Ferrari. The 430 is more of the best of what they could build out of the old stuff laying around. Its still an excellent excellent car but... the 430 is what should have been built in 1999.

 

And have the prices of the older manual transmission Porsches plummeted as a result or Porsches rereleasing manual transmission cars?

One thing also worth mentioning here. While these current dual-clutch gearboxes are not Ferrari products, the original F1 sequential gearbox was a Ferrari creation lifted off their 1989 F1 car, the 640, and put in the 1997 355. It's their creation. They're super proud of it, as they should be. I think that if Ferrari made a throw back car, they're maybe more likely to put a mechanical single clutch sequential transmission into the car than a clutch pedal and shift lever. Something to think about.

 

Some good points.

I've owned two MT-only Ferraris: 328 and 512 BBi.

A 612 was my first F1-transmission car (failed to get MT 612 - if I had tried a year earlier, I would have gotten one at a fair price). I will say this, F1-A (version I have) certainly has plenty of drama. However, Reverse sucks and sometime it can be reluctant to shift into 1st. And don't even think of running the thing in AUTO mode.

 

Bingo....give the man his cigar.

No one in the secondary market is buying a 430 because they think its still near the top of the performance heap....they are doing so because they want a fun weekender....and a manual transmission is just more fun. Same reason that convertibles eventually gain more value than coupes.

 

Yeah, I was hoping someone would call him on the error...

In addition, they also have the manual only GT4 and 911R, both new platforms.

 

Just the opposite, I fully expect the exotic companies to produce special manual-only limited edition cars. Dino, anyone?