Realistic Best / Most Likely / Worst Case Scenarios

Best:
Red Bull
Ferrari
Aston Martin

Most likely:
Red Bull
Ferrari
Mercedes

Worst:
Mercedes
Red Bull
Aston Martin

 

Best case scenario:

Bahrain was an anomaly like Spa was last year, and we'll actually have a championship

1) Ferrari
2) Red Bull
3) Aston Martin

Most Likely:

Evidence seems to suggest Red Bull wasn't pushing after the first pit stop. I need a couple more races to properly assess Aston AND Ferrari but with the huge amount of extra CFD and windtunnel hours Aston has available over any other team at the front, AND the people they hired in the last year, they will not only make Mercedes' life difficult but could actually challenge Ferrari

1) Red Bull
2) Ferrari
3) Aston very close

Worst:

Merc somehow sandbagged and are competitive

1) Merc
2) Alpine
3) Aston

 

I don't think Mercedes will not react - I guess they will pass Aston. Red Bull seems out of reach, second place could be between Ferrari, Mercedes and Aston.
A totally unlikely best case is Ferrari, Red Bull, Aston; most likely is Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari; worst case is Red Bull, Meceded, Aston.

 

Oh they'll react, but the fact is that they lost a lot of people in the last 2 years...and plenty of them ended up at Aston, as did some RB people. With AM having finished 7th last year they have a lot of hours available to develop. AM doesn't seem to have issues with the car, they can just develop the car. Merc has a concept issue that needs fixing and figuring out.

 

Ferrari likely 4th, zero wins this year as they seem clueless ref tyre degradation and reliability will be as patchy as 2022.

 

I dont' see Ferrari falling behind Mercedes

 

Aston Martin will find a way to lose the development race while sticking close to the front.

Leaving RB as 1 and a tight race between F and MB for 2 and 3.
The difference between 2 and 3 at the end of the year will be the development race that just begun.