Report on when market will “normalize.” Opinions on impact to Ferrari’s

There are two different markets here. The classic/collector car market, which doesn't necessarily include late model exotics such as Ferrari, and the overall used car market, which also doesn't necessarily include late model exotics.

The KPMG report (https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/used-car-prices-could-crash.html) is talking about the latter.

 

I do think every regular-production model Ferrari from the 360 onward is going to lose value. In fact, it's my opinion that the peak has already been reached and the economic headwinds we are facing are already causing demand to weaken. We won't see a reduction in asking prices right away though. It may take a few months for that.

Economic conditions and accompanying stock market direction are IMO the #1 driver of the values of all luxury goods and collectibles. When we have a bear market in stocks and tens of thousands of people are being laid off, everybody, both rich and poor, tighten their belts causing demand for all luxury goods to plummet. Look at the Hagerty valuations of almost every Ferrari model during the spring 2020 market crash and economic shutdown. I have, and all of them went down significantly. Of course, they all recovered quickly and many went higher, just as the stock market did.

Impossible to know. There is already a stock market correction underway, and who knows whether it's just a quick correction or if it will turn into an extended bear market. I think the market is way overvalued still, and very nervous and it will just take a single geopolitical shock to send it down 30% again. And Russia is about to invade Ukraine...hold on to your butts.

I may be buying a 488 or F12 in the future but I'm sure as hell not going to buy one now. I'm waiting for the next recession when more reasonable prices will prevail.

 

I think the froth/excess price appreciation in the exotic market will likely come off at some point soon (I.e. new 992 GT3’s selling for 75% over MSRP).

Ferrari’s new direction of electrification and increased production I think will have as much to do with the values of out of production and soon to be out of production models as the stock market and/or the economy. Same with Lambo and Porsche

458, 488 and F8’s I personally believe will hold their values especially the 458 and the F8. Fewer F8’s were made than 488’s and 458’s thanks to the pandemic, not to mention it will be the last V8 non hybrid Ferrari. The V12 cars should also hold their values. I think new exotics cars will get hit harder than the out of production Ferrari models if we have a recession and/or a substantial stock market pull back.


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We are kidding ourselves if we aren’t prepared for a big hit on modern used F car values by year end. Along with other used cars the values are way over priced, and it will hit all of them even the 458s that some think will weather the storm.

There we way too many cars made to hold the values and current owners will continue to trade in those cars for newer F cars or their competitors which will add even more inventory to sell.

 

Its my opinion that Hagarty values are not very well researched and are done to drive their own purposes.

 

I think the real situation is a combo of devaluation in car prices but being buffered by inflation. so I think prices will stay somewhat steady, but inflation will eat into the increased values / Profits.

 

I would think the contrary for the moment - flight to real assets - get out of the market park cash in collectables.... depending on what happens globally. Question is define collectable. a 250 Ferrari fits the mold... a 360 probably not so much.

 

I own a 488. I bought it to drive it and do whenever I get when the season here permits. I did not buy it as any form of a collectible investment. It’s not an investment, it’s a depreciating asset plain and simple. Given the car buying climate I most certainly could sell it as a profit but that defeats the purpose of owning it for me. My purchase was scalable relative to my assets and I can afford for it to depreciate and enjoy it while it does.

I think Ferrari adapted beautifully to global market conditions over the last 30 years. There’s been tremendous economic growth in the ME, Asia, etc. and Ferrari built cars like there’s an *** for every seat and sold every car they could turn out. Modern Ferrari’s are not coach built bespoke cars. Save for certain limited edition examples of recent models they are not designed to go up in value. It doesn’t take away from the fact that they are tremendous cars! And they truly are!

The future for Ferrari will be bright with very little doubt in my mind. People will buy the SUV. People will get a kick out of the acceleration that an electric powertrain offers. Am I one of those people? No. GPF’s, hybrids and electric aren’t my things. I hope to in a position to be a collector instead of an owner one day. I want to buy the Ferrari’s I dreamt of during my childhood as opposed to the latest and greatest. For me, the F40 is my holy grail car to own. Maybe it will appreciate, maybe it won’t. I don’t really care.

 

I think the people who will get really burned soon are the ones with a warped view of what is collectible enough, like perhaps those people using their credit card to pay over MSRP on hyped-up steel watches or buying NFTs, etc.

 

well as an owner of both all the above its only a burn when you try to sell for profit... if you actually like the car and watch... what's to lose... NFT's... meh not interested.

 

Right, I'm referring to people who are "investing."

 

F430/360 prices are insane. I think we will see the largest correction with those models. 458 is a bit more difficult to call as it does represent the last of the n/a V8. And I think it was the last Pininfarina designed Ferrari..Iight be wrong on that one tho.

All the rest of the early models will do there thing as I don't really think they are over inflated. Some have always been expensive and that will never really change.

 

Obligatory correction. F12 last one and last Ferrari for Sergio before his death.

 

Greetings
After seeing your post I searched for a spreadsheet I created in 2018 with "For Sale" F430's and 360's
I was looking to buy my first Ferrari and compiled a spreadsheet to compare what was currently available.

To my surprise the current price levels are higher...but not insanely higher from what I saw in mid 2018.

As an example...
Well cared for Rossa Corsa F430 coupes (F1) with less than 15k miles were selling in the $110-$125k range in late 2018
The same cars today are selling for what.... $120 to $140K?
I don't think that's too insane.

Now, 6 speed gated F430's are a different story as evidenced by the one currently on BaT.

Just my 2 cents.

Pete

Edit: One thing I did notice from my spreadsheet is there were a heck of a lot more F430's for sale in 2018 vs today's market

 

Up here in the Cold North..Ferrari 360/430 coupe prices have moved up close to the 200k area. Hard pressed to find anything under 160k. 360 manual cars are around the 160-180 mark with a couple being listed at the 200k mark for perfect examples. 355's coupes are commanding big numbers also. Our market is sightly different then yours due to supply differences.

 

Wow, that's impressive.
Didn't realize there was such big price difference between us.
Thanks for the info.

 

I didn't same before I brought a Maranello in 2003. The key was tracking VINs. The number of people with the same car for sale was interesting.

 

I’m old enough to remember when buying a new Ferrari or any other exotic was guaranteed depreciation and I didn’t give a ****.

 

watches and Cars are not really investments... unless you are talking 250 GTO's and Paul Newman Daytona's ... that were owned by him.

 

That is exactly what I'm saying.

 

attached is the report if anybody is interested

 

Don't forget inflation can create 'artificial' new 'highs' that won't go back down. (regardless of real price parity)