Should we be worried about keeping our cars on the road in the future? | FerrariChat

Should we be worried about keeping our cars on the road in the future?

Discussion in '456/550/575' started by Bluebottle, Jan 14, 2021.

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  1. Bluebottle

    Bluebottle F1 Veteran
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    Oct 15, 2012
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    John
    I say this because I have noticed quite a number of posts about parts that are difficult / impossible to find / eye-wateringly expensive and assume that this situation will only get worse with time.

    To illustrate my point, I have no worries about my E-type, because:
    • Its mechanics are totally “analogue”, almost blacksmith era, with no fancy electronics, ECUs, etc.
    • It shares a lot of its parts with other Jaguars and even non-Jaguars, so there is a copious source of second-hand parts.
    • There are quite a lot of E-types about, so there is a ready market for re-manufactured parts (especially those shared with other Jaguars) and body panels, and enough demand to create competition among suppliers and so keep prices down.
    The same cannot be said about our Ferraris. So, are we going to find that, as the supply of some parts are gradually (or not so gradually!) exhausted, it will be increasingly difficult / expensive to keep our cars on the road?
     
  2. fridolin_pt

    fridolin_pt Karting

    Mar 25, 2008
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    Fritz
    re-engeneering will be more often the only and expensive solution
     
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  3. EastMemphis

    EastMemphis Formula 3
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    May 25, 2019
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    When we have folks like 360trev reverse engineering the entire ECU for several models, and others who are working on keeping their cars from becoming obsolete, I would say it's actually looking brighter for the 20 year old cars. The newer ones are more complex and even more proprietary so they may not be as easy to keep going than the older, simpler models. The 1999-2008 year span seem to have a very promising future.
     
    NeuroBeaker, ifeelfree0, JSP and 2 others like this.
  4. Ferrari55whoa

    Ferrari55whoa F1 Rookie
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    I would gladly accept some education on why the 1999-2008. I had a recent conversation with someone unrelated to this forum and I had mentioned it felt in my gut like the technology cutoff was going to be 2004-05 (just generally -- not Ferrari or Maranello specific).
     
    Bas likes this.
  5. Qavion

    Qavion F1 World Champ
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    In some cases, yes, thanks to scalpers. Second hand parts are appearing at double their original prices. But generally, I think the prospects are good. People are getting awfully creative at fixing broken parts, reengineering, 3D printing, etc. Heck, even the factory surprises us by restarting production lines. There has been some postive news on some super rare parts, but unfortunately, nothing comes of them. Promises, promises... :p
     
  6. Bas

    Bas Four Time F1 World Champ

    Mar 24, 2008
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    Yes I'm more or less on board with that. That said with guys like Trev doing insanely complicated stuff who is to say that we can't move that goal post to current cars in the next 20 years or so...

    I thought this thread was more to do with legislation and the move to EV's and outlawing petrol cars, but I'm not too worried about it. I'm sure a higher annual tax will have to be paid and probably even some cities will outlaw petrol cars. I'm not too worried about the latter because I've no interest in cities anyways and try to avoid them like the plague. And I think the full ban of petrol cars in cities is quite far away anyways.

    To keep cars on the road up to around 2005ish is going to be quite easy I reckon. Reverse engineering or upgraded engineering will work quite well in the future. I actually think a ''refresh/spec'' business where certain types of cars are basically gutted and painted, trimmed and updated for more modern use (apple car play, audio etc) as if you where speccing a brand new car will start to form and do quite well.
     
  7. NE550

    NE550 Formula Junior

    Mar 23, 2017
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    #7 NE550, Jan 15, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2021
    If there is enough demand in the future the aftermarket will come up with replacement parts, or at least the capability to refurbish worn components which are NLA. There is already a cottage industry for certain replacement and refurbished components for our Maranellos and other late model Ferraris. That said, I reckon that low production numbers present a barrier for most would-be aftermarket parts providers to being able to recoup development costs, and thus will be a deterrent to producing replacement parts in some cases.

    As far as when did cars start to become technologically "too complex," the 2005-2010 (-ish) timeframe seems about right. This was about when we started to see the proliferation of technologies like sophisticated dual clutch transmissions, traction and stability controls, adaptive suspension systems, infotainment systems, hi-tech lighting systems, etc, all controlled by numerous discrete ECUs. Our late '90s and early '00s Maranellos have maybe 30 or 40 ECUs controlling various functions. By the 2005-2010 (-ish) timeframe this had increased to maybe 60-80 on average per vehicle. Today's vehicles have on average 150 ECUs that basically control almost everything in the vehicle, not to mention the hugely complex wiring harnesses and communication busses that connect everything.

    Modern cars are basically a package of networked computers on four wheels. How many indie repair shops can afford Ferrari's proprietary Leonardo diagnostic tools at something like $20k-$30k a pop? The sheer complexity and cost all of his represents seems to be the single biggest potential issue in keeping modern cars viable well into the future.
     
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  8. Ray Smith

    Ray Smith Formula Junior
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    "scalpers"? You mean capitalists responding to a demand curve moving to the right by raising their prices? Dude, that's Econ 101. Market demand drives prices. You're not advocating socialist allocation of resources are you?

    Ray
     
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  9. franschman

    franschman Formula Junior

    Dec 18, 2017
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    I'm afraid the real thread is not technologically, but politically. For how long are we allowed to run our cars on public roads?
    Here in Europe at least, there's a plethora of regulations, increasingly tight year by year. In some countries, cars above a certain age are not allowed in city centers any more. In others this applies to diesel fueled cars only, where yet other countries, Norway amongst them, only alows electric cars in certain areas.
    Surely the funfactor (and value) of our cars decreases when you're not allowed on public roads anymore...
     
    F456M likes this.
  10. Bluebottle

    Bluebottle F1 Veteran
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    Some very interesting replies. Lots of food for thought. Thankyou.
     
  11. Fennicus

    Fennicus Formula Junior

    Apr 10, 2015
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    Hi,

    Sad but true.

    I'm not so worried about my Jaguars either, cause just like the original poster said, parts are no problem and everything is so mechanical.

    Also the 1947 pushrod engine I have in my MKV can most likely run on anything combustable. :)

    But with the 456 GT I am more worried about things like door seals, and other detoriating rubber components that are all becoming NLA.
    Yes, of course they can be made, but the door seal for a 456 or 456M (or 550/575) is not an easy task for a DIY guy.
    I'm glad I got my door seals and changed them in 2017, if I take good care of them I hope they will last 30+ years.

    What will be allowed on the road and what not is another political matter, I have recently gotten an international FIVA pass for my XJ6C (manual) as I plan to do some continental tours with it in the near future and from what I have read, at least in some parts of Europe that gives an exception for the environmental restrictions, zones, etc.

    I didn't have one for my V12 E-type and at least in 2018 I did not experience any difficulties (Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, France, England, Belgium, Luxemburg) in any cities and did not get any tickets (unlike with the 456 GT with which I got FIVE speeding tickets in France in 2016 :D ) only the normal minimal tolls from Stockholm during business hours in the city.

    But things may change soon.

    Cheers!
     
    Themaven likes this.
  12. jtremlett

    jtremlett F1 Rookie

    Feb 18, 2004
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    I don't think you need to worry too much about part availability. There are a lot of older Ferraris still around and the parts for them are available one way or another and there are a lot more Maranellos etc. Classic Parts re-manufacture parts when they have the demand. However, I'm sure no-one thinks parts are going to get cheaper and they won't!

    As to using our cars, I suspect Bas is right and that there will be some cities etc. where you can't take a petrol car but I can't see anything much more than that for at least the next 20 years. Even then, I think any sort of total ban on petrol cars is unlikely as, if in due course you can't buy a new petrol car any more, then the numbers around will reduce over time so any environmental argument dwindles.
     
  13. vandevanterSH

    vandevanterSH Formula 3
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    "There are a lot of older Ferraris still around and the parts for them are available one way or another and there are a lot more Maranellos etc. Classic Parts re-manufacture parts when they have the demand. "
    ****
    The issue with the "newer" Ferraris will likely be with the electronics, especially with all of the specialized "chips" and circuit boards. Can't manufacture parts when chips are no longer made and NOS is gone.
     
  14. Bluebottle

    Bluebottle F1 Veteran
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    Yes, that's what worries me.
     
  15. brogenville

    brogenville Formula 3
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    There’s always a solution if there’s sufficient commercial justification. Just becomes a matter of cost.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
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  16. jtremlett

    jtremlett F1 Rookie

    Feb 18, 2004
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    I don't think it has to be an issue. You don't need to replace an electronic part with an identical electronic part. Just with a part that does what the old part did. So that becomes a question of demand etc. Ferrari currently make a lot of money out of Classiche for the older cars and it may very well be that they come to the conclusion it is in their (financial) interests to keep the newer ones running too. If they don't then someone else might well step in.
     
  17. fridolin_pt

    fridolin_pt Karting

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    When I said that to someone who is programming for production cars the answer was:
    Reprogramming is easier than reigeneering. When I have the to do list I find a chip and write a program.
     
  18. tazandjan

    tazandjan Three Time F1 World Champ
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    A good example of what can be done are the Dinoplexes with modern guts and what used to be V12 twin distributors with 4 sets of points now with electronic innards.
     
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  19. ifeelfree0

    ifeelfree0 Formula Junior
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    I spent my career in the semiconductor industry, specifically in the FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) world. That technologoly can support the reengineering of ECU obsolescence very easily. The FPGA world is a mature 30 yr old technology. FPGA's live everywhere in our world, including RAD Hard space applications. No reason to believe that the reenginneering effort would not be less than trying to support a parts obsolescence issue. My concern are the mechanical type parts or sub assemblies- they can always be supported but at a never ending price curve that goes up and to the right
     
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  20. fridolin_pt

    fridolin_pt Karting

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    That is exactly what we are facing. In England you find a surprising choice of reigeneered parts for all kind of British classic cars but as soon as we come to rare examples the price goes through the roof.
     
  21. Themaven

    Themaven F1 Rookie

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    and yet, the prices of even mundane classic cars keep rising. Over the last 20 years there has been so much obsolescence and barriers to entry to classic car ownership, up to and including but not solely the issues discussed here. But not only have prices generally moved upwards, sometimes dramatically, they have done so on cars which it should be economically suicidal to run.

    In the last year that trend has, if anything, accelerated. There are “modern classics” sold at auction all the time, in places where it’s ever harder to drive, for which any service could throw up a repair bill bigger than the cost of the car, but they keep on selling.

    I think it’s because cars are like watches. We blokes (and it’s pretty much all blokes) love tinkering with them and wasting money on them, even if it’s thousands for a bit of rubber. I’m supposedly a rational person and I just paid someone a couple of thousand to replace a couple of rubber belts on my 575, which I barely drive, and I’ll do it again.

    so, I’m bullish on Bluebottle’s question, only because we’re all fools.
     
  22. ralfabco

    ralfabco Two Time F1 World Champ
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    The lack of available parts is even worse with the older Italian exotics.
     
  23. F456M

    F456M F1 Rookie

    Jan 8, 2010
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    This is a fact and a major reason why these gas guzzlers should be used as much as possible now when it is still legal to drive them! There is a religion among many people whose only goal is to take freedom away from individualists, at any costs. I read an article from Oslo Norway today, where the green environmental party are doing everything they can to prohibit gas and diesel cars in the city center. But there is more.... They also want all the new green electric cars to disappear aswell, and demand parking costs to the city even on PRIVATE parkings! So if you have your car in your own garage, you are supposed to pay a monthly tax for the parking to the city government... These morons who make all this happen are complete psycopaths who do not own a car, but they take a diesel powered taxi to all their meetings. The same people who recomend people to get around on a kickbike! And we have cold winters with lots of snow. How do you deliver your kids to hockey, football etc. while having your groceries with you on that kick bike...? In 1/2 foot of snow. In a place where it is dark outside 18 houres a day!! And they cover themselves behind the «all for the environment» mask. ****ing communists!

    No, fill up your tank and enjoy 200 mph. and brag for your kids and grand kids when this is all a memory of the past!


    Erik
    (Currently a Norwegian political refugy residing in the Monaco area where 812s and F8 Tributos along with Rolls’es are the commuter cars!)
    :)
     
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  24. Themaven

    Themaven F1 Rookie

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    I got shouted at last summer in one of my Fcars in London by a cyclist with his kids in tow. “Polluter!” he said. I drive maybe a couple of thousand miles a year. He had three kids, his CO2 contribution dwarfs mine through that alone. Cars are an easy target.

    I do see, however, why some city centres want to limit cars because of particulate and NOX emissions. These are a real danger to people living roadside, often the poorest who have no choice. I live in a city centre, and don’t like breathing diesel. So I do favour taxing through congestion charging, and roadworthiness. But there needs to be a balance.
     
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  25. NE550

    NE550 Formula Junior

    Mar 23, 2017
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    Well, we all live in different places with different perspectives. I'm in a mid-size midwestern US city which is the largest city in a low-population state; the next largest city is less than 1/2 our population and the rest of the state is very rural. For better or worse, large pickups and SUVs rule the roads here. Local public transportation consists of diesel powered buses, which are mostly utilized by people who don't have access to a car.

    Except for maybe a few of the hottest/most humid days in the middle of summer, our air quality is generally good. With the rest of the state being wide open rural spaces, there is little concern over air quality here. There have been several initiatives locally to expand public transportation options, such as a limited light rail system, but public support is tepid given the costs involved and skepticism over potential ridership. Bottom line, I don't see our car-centric transportation system changing anytime soon.
     

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