Should we be worried about keeping our cars on the road in the future?

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Pity that this interesting topic has derailed like it did.

 

I too am concerned about this, but what's cool is new technology and enthusiasts pop up to create some recreation that often is as good as the original. (if not better)

I try to not think too much about it, just keep my cars in tip-top shape and enjoy them NOW. For who knows what tomorrow brings?

 

Based on Morgan Stanley's report below, 2035 will be a pivotal year where IC fuel sales would fall off a cliff to 2040. The pressure on manufacturers is real, and it is primarily financial as their IC unit sales will not be factored into their stock multiples at best. MS believes IC units may even compress a company's P/E ratio resulting in lower stock value. This will move companies towards EVs a lot faster than legislation can, and it is something that both management and shareholders can understand. It is the capitalist way.

However, I don't think legacy cars (like ours) already on the road will get affected enough as to make it impossible for us to enjoy them well into the 40s. The less tech laden the better.

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/legacy-automakers-electric-vehicles

 

@root - I think this is about right. Car manufacturers are hard-pressed to invest in both ICE and electric drivetrains - it basically doubles their capital needs as the technologies are quite different. This is why Tesla - as a pure play EV car maker- has an advantage at the moment. For legacy car makers, there appear to be two strategies. 1) hold on to the ICE tech and keep electric investment to the bare minimum- essentially play out the ICE and hope for the best. This seems to be the strategy that FCA took- they are really behind on EVs. 2) Sort out kinks in EVs in early 2020s and then go all in on electrics starting in mid-2020s and phase ICEs out. This appears to be what GM, Ford and VW are doing.

For us gear heads, I don't think the prospects are bleak at all. Even when ICE manufacturing ends, interest in ICE cars will remain - it might be a niche thing, but that should be enough to sustain the market. Plus- at least in the US- I don't see any way they can legislate legacy ICEs off the road, except in the biggest cities. In addition, technologies like 3D printing are only going to get better, so parts may be less of a headache.