special ferraris value ratio

Interesting post. I do think it's an interesting way at looking at value. But I have a couple of observations.

1. Can we really call the F40 modern? It will be 25 years old next year.
2. There were 349 F50's made and 399 Enzo's, at least to Ferrari's official figures.
3. I don't think there is a linear relationship between value and desirability. Nor between build numbers and value. For instance - why is a 250TR much more valuable than a 750 Monza? The cars are both racing barchettas, have similar build numbers, have raced in the legendary periods. The 750 is even eligible for the MM Storica, which the TR is not, and which would make the 750 much more attractive to some audiences. Nevertheless, it commands many a million less. Why? It's a very hard question to answer. I think it has to do with the fact that, for some reason, more people are attracted to the 250TR than there are to the 750 Monza. And I feel it's the same for the supercars. For some reason, people universally just love the F40. I think it is because it was just such a game changer when it came out. The F50 was unloved (or rather underappreciated) for quite some time but recently that has changed somewhat. As public perception changes, the relative value changes. The 288 was for a long time cheaper than the F40, but now certainly isn't.

For me, build numbers are only a part of the answer. The desirability in the public eye is the major governing factor. It is human nature to like what other people like. If everyone loves the F40, then you're willing to pay more to own one. After all, people like people who own the things that they like.

Anyway, just some musings from me. Interested to see other comments.


Onno

 

Very interesting thread - though the math is a bit beyond me.

The real world production numbers for the Enzo and F50 are 500 and approximately 400, respectively. But is the illusion of exclusivity (100 less Enzos claimed than actually produced) worth more than actual production numbers? if so, then the equation for the Enzo should be changed to 400 units - and as I already said, the math is beyond me so I can't do solve for X by myself (I need an adult!).

Ferrari made 456 two-cam 275s and 350 four-cams.

I think the F50 is underappreciated, but can't figure out why. And I'm also clueless as to why it took the GTO so long to climb past the F40 in value. If anyone has some intelligible speculation on these two anomalies, I'd be interested in reading it.

While I want to disagree with Onno about production numbers playing an important role in value, his statement is clearly correct when you consider how long it took the GTO to surpass the F40 in value, and how undervalued the F50 is compared to the F40 when there are almost 1,000 more F40s than F50s.



There is a fatal flaw to your thread though... This perpetual exaltation of the 250 GTO only justifies the eight-figure asking price whenever one becomes available. Why are you doing that? Why are unctuously bestowing credibility to the car's worth, maintaining the impossibility of acquiring one? What are you doing? You're supposed to talk bad about the thing, to make it easier for me to get one. Where the hell am I gonna get $25MM? Why do you have to ruin it for everybody else?

 

Some great points you've made that are actually relevant to the real world as far as the values of Supercars are concerned.

If you chart values going as far back as 25 years, the 288 GTO has done very well indeed for a $85,000 car, and is now worth much more (double in some instances) than the F40 and ten times its original value. So it has really done much much better than the F40 which languishes around its original sales price of 20 years ago, plus a little. F40s would have to be worth $4 mil to be worth the same % increase that the 288 GTO has shown.

As an aside, by the interesting reasoning of the OP, a 288 GTO should be worth $2.6 mil, so by that reckoning my advice would have to be "buy one now!!!". The upside potential is impressive.

You are so right that public perception changes and that is exactly the reason that some cars overtake others in value over the time and that scenario is always changing. After all, production numbers remain a constant so why else would values surge and drop relative to the other cars? Some cars become 're-discovered' amongst the faithful ("desirability in the public eye" as you say), and all of a sudden everybody wants one. Values go up relatively.

 

There is a generation factor as well. Most collectors that have old Ferraris in their stable are 60+. I guess that their understanding of "heritage" is not the same as people in their 30-40s. I wonder what will happen when people who grew up with the F40/F50 (people who were 20ish when the F50 was out) would have the means to speculate on prices of those.

 

This is the 288GTO/F40/F50/Enzo section. That chronological order is also my order of desirability for the four types. I am surprised the 288GTO has taken so long to come out of the relative shadows. Its price mirrored the 959 for too long.

Across the various types, if number produced was related to value in such a linear fashion, then what is the value of the sole remaining P4 today? A race car which has the added benefit of being road legal, as David Clarke enjoyed for many years. Or the many other limited run road legal Ferrari sports race cars, some with illustrious race histories, some one off’s?

Rarity certainly increases desire and value, if pink diamonds littered every street, girls wouldn’t look twice, but it isn’t the be all and end all.

Coming to the lesser moderns, my personal order of desirability is 355/308/328/348/360/458/430. I don’t like being electronically cosseted and mollycoddled. Im hoping the next top street Ferrari will move away from the current trend, but I highly doubt it will. Ferrari has the draw to make such a move a hit irrespective. The acceleration and top speed game has been won by others, Ferrari can move on, not backwards, with an alternate angle to the others. I hope they do, otherwise the new one may slot in under the Enzo as even less desirable, for me.

Alex

 

So would Jim sell his P4/5 for 720m?

 

im 35...dont think ill ever really care about the ferraris from the 60s from the perspective of buying or driving them....so for me its all about the 288 thru current, with the f40 being the icon...i was 13 the first time i saw a pic of the f40 and ill never forget it. So in my eyes:
f40
f50
enzo
288
fwiw

 

I can appreciate the 250 GTO but I don't have a desire to own one, even if the price tag was much less. I do think there are a lot of valid points to a persons age and what they see as important to them. I just turned 40, I want cars in my garage that reflect the posters I had on my bedroom wall when I was growing up. 288 GTO, F40, Countach, 959, etc.. I have little desire for a 250 GTO but would love to let my dad take me for a drive in one, he was 18 years old when those beauties were hitting the circuits.

 

I dont think the F40 is holding its own at all. Considering its 20 years old and still worth the same plus a little.

The 288 GTO is twice as desirable considering that they are worth twice what an F40 is, and they are holding their own in leaps & bounds considering that they are worth ten times what they originally sold for.

Your value ratio premise, whilst it has a point of sorts, is terminally flawed.

 

joe i think the point being made is if u quantity adjust the numbers then the f40 looks like its doing well....ie what wld the f40 be worth if they had only made 399?

actually thats an interesting question, if the f40 was limited to 399 units, what wld it be worth?

 

Ricky:

Yes, I agree, it "looks" like the F40 is doing well, but its playing an irrelevant fantasy game in the real world just to make one feel good. Its not the first time we have seen such a game played by the owner of a particular model, and the point would be to arrange a set of facts to suggest that said model is the doing the best.

The fact remains that the 288 GTO is twice as desirable, considering that in most cases you'd have to give me 2 F40s to get my 1 288 GTO. So too, the 288 GTO has increased in value tenfold in 25 yrs. The F40 has only increased in value a bit, less than twice is original value (although it did start at a higher value to begin with). Those are the relevant facts in the real world, and I only seek to point that out before we all get carried away.

Your question about what F40 values would be if the car was limited to 399 units is fascinating, but, yet again, a fantasy play on reality. How much would they be worth? About 10 years ago my crystal ball went in for restoration and I haven't seen it since.

 

I'd say if the F40 only had 400 copies it would be a million dollar car.

Supply and demand. We need to assume that the demand would be the same but the supply decreased 60%.

The only thing keeping F40s low anyways is that they change hands regularly. There are always a couple for sale and any moment. Guys save up to buy them, but don't drive them very often for many reasons. The keep them for a few years and sell them to get into something more realistic to own. Owning an F40 is very cool. Having owned an F40 is still pretty cool.

I do believe in 20-30 years they will be in very high demand as I know for a fact I will always want to own one before I die and I am not alone.

 

hey joe if u take away my right to fantasize we are in really bad shape!

 

Oh I agree it can be fun, but you know how the internet works!

 

That is of course we are all still allowed to use or even buy petrol/gasoline, even at 25 dollars a litre.

 

You nailed it, my point.

 

Going one step further, what would it be worth if only 36 were made?

 

We are the same age and I do hear you. One of my bedroom walls had a 1/2 scale side view of a black Countach on grass. The other a front view of a 288 GTO. Not to mention the stacks of car magazines all over the place.

It's easier to have ‘fast’ fun legally with the lighter, more nimble, lower powered older cars from the 50's and 60's. Generally they look better too, in my opinion, apart from the 288 GTO was is achingly beautiful.

 

Do the math by original cost (msrp) vs value today.

Keeping pace?

Mais no.

An F40 isn't keeping pace with inflation much less a 250 GTO.

 

+1. Most Ferrari fun I had on public road was in a 212. Visceral, progressive handling, glorious 1.5 litre engine

 

There were 36 Series 1 GTOs, and 3 Series 2 GTOs.

 

+ 1

Good seeing you at Quail!!