Starting to see a lot more cars on the market

I disagree, liquidity doesn’t dry up for the upper 5 percent. Recessions hurt the poor to middle class the most and strain the upper middle class which are usually those that stretched for toys they couldn’t truly afford. Most exotic cars are littered around the major metropolitan cities anyways that have stronger economies.

 

About that falling market lol


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Not all owners of these cars are multi millionaires. Many leveraged a line of credit against thier homes to get into thier dream car while money was cheap. Making lease payments etc. Those are the cars we are now seeing hitting the market. Expect more LandRovers and BMW's to start rolling in as real estate agents start dumping the large monthly payments they can no longer afford. Laugh all you want but it's happening.

 

I used a HELOC to buy my FF last year, 1.99% for 12 months was too good to pass up. Now it will be around 7% after today's rate hike, so using it to buy another car is much less attractive. I was lucky to get a 2.99% fixed loan on my current FF a couple months ago. The interest rates definitely have an impact on the market. Also keep in mind that anyone who was paying cash for these cars before now has to think twice because with higher market interest rates being paid on cash and the stock market still down 20%, some buyers may feel they're better off investing the money than spending it on a car that is likely to see significant price drops in the near future.

 

I got a tip that there are 20 SF90's for sale in Canadian Autotrader. Another 2 to be added shortly..so 22 total it looks like. Not sure how any were allocated for Canada but that seems like a lot for our market. Seems to be a really high number considering there are 24 488's listed. Buy I suspect there are plenty more as some dealers do not advertise on Autotrader.

 

SF90 isnt a keeper. Its the FF of 2012. You bought one cuz u had to

 

Actually they do release exact production as required by being a public company. I did not see it broken down by model though.
https://www.ferrari.com/en-EN/corporate/financial-documents

 

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Yesterdays rate sheet from a more sub prime focused lender

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Slowdown in Nov 2022. Sales lower than expected.


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But Bain predicts luxury goods which includes some of these cars to continue growing despite economic turbulence in 2023.

https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/2022/global-luxury-goods-market-takes-2022-leap-forward-and-remains-poised--for-further-growth-despite-economic-turbulence/
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Usually takes about 18 months for rate hikes to start showing the ripple effect. We are only about 7 months into it. Predictions really can't be made and know body should trust anything right now.

The folks who are saying the going is still good are normally the ones who's income depends on the sale of homes or other luxuries. Agents are still trying to tell people it's a "great" time to buy..makes me sick to my stomach.

The car dealer clients of ours..are all dead. Inventory is now climbing and lease returns are coming back..no takers at 9% interest rates.

It will be interesting. Hang on to your money don't be buying silly unneeded toys. Just my very humble opinion.

 

That's a super unique situation, MB publicly said they had discontinued the V8 and then a few months later started making them again.... Had MB actually stopped making the V8 the values would be responsive to that just as they were to the V8 being put back into production.

 

Telling people the sky is falling is what will cause prices to fall and inventory to increase. The economy other than interest rates hasn't changed that much. Prices on cars, boats and jewelry needed to correct, they couldn't keep going up at the rate they were but there aren't any super deals out there and there likely wont be for some time. The major cause of this inventory are all the flippers at the higher end, many thought they could buy a car and use it for a year or so and then make some money. Too many cars showing up for sale at the same time causes the prices to drop. Homes are being corrected by interest rates. Nothing crazy going on at least not yet and who knows if things will ever really blow up. I have learned to do the opposite of the masses, everyone selling well that's a good time to buy. Everyone buying, I should probably sell.

 

Meanwhile, Ferrari stops taking orders for Purosangue as the wait list is two years long and they want to cap it from being more than 20% by volume of the total number of cars they sell.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/2023-ferrari-purosangue-orders-halted/

 

There will always be people with cash money to buy stuff. They do not affect the market. It's the folks who live in debt and who have financed thier life style. These are the people who can sink a market. They are the majority.

 

Ferrari is in a unique position. Based on this estimate of 3000/year, about 6000 Purosangue are spoken for. Maybe an average price of US$ 400K.

https://ritholtz.com/2022/09/ferrari-purosangue/

Meanwhile, Aston is unable to make or sell as many DBXs they wanted to.

https://karenable.com/aston-martins-q3-2022/

 

Hard to ignore the job layoffs in the tech sector going on right now.

Many don't believe it, but what has been going on for some time is very artificial, and reality will always kick in in some form or another.

 

Tech sector needed to have layoffs, they believed their own market capitalization in 2021 and were brought back to reality in 2022. The CPI data and jobs report month after month stays strong but the picture will change as rates keep moving up in Q3 or 4 2023 but all of you thinking a massive correction is coming are wrong. New car production will continue to struggle and those with production plants in China like Tesla, GM and Ford are already cutting production for next year due to various shutdowns and parts shortages. The low inventory for new will keep the used market propped but also for every recession that took place, the rich get even more rich.

 

Tech needed a major haircut due to bloat. Total US Tech workforce is about 8 Million. Approximately 200,000 Tech workers are laid off this year. About 3% of 8M

Also Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 will be the low points per DB We'll see how that pans out.

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And Ferrari actually raised earnings guidance and is increasing prices in 2023.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ferrari-raises-outlook-on-high-spec-model-demand-currency-boost/ar-AA13EI0G

 

majority of tech workers aren't buying F8's and 812s, maybe Audis and BMW's, it will have no factor to the higher end market.

 

The high end market for cars above $500K is very strong and is tied to the growth of UHNWIs across the world.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/five-trends-shaping-tomorrows-luxury-car-market


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Is this a good thing or a bad one?