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Discussion in 'Other Off Topic Forum' started by WILLIAM H, Mar 22, 2004.

  1. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

    Nov 1, 2003
    34,891
    Victory Circle
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    HUBBSTER
    I'm thinking of selling out & staying in cash till January. I think after the Spanish attack investors are spooked & with the US election coming & people expecting an attack the market wont recover soon.

    Opinions ?
     
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  3. David_S

    David_S F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 1, 2003
    9,932
    Mountains of WNC...
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    David S.
    I think you aren't too far off unfortunately.
     
  4. LouB

    LouB Formula 3

    Apr 15, 2001
    1,811
    FL, OR
    William. I have already moved a lot of money out of the market and greatly increased my cash holdings. I'll take a relook after the election. You are on target. The S&P 500 is already 5-6 % off its recent high.
     
  5. ty (360mode)

    ty (360mode) Formula Junior

    Sep 25, 2002
    807
    Houston
    Full Name:
    Tim
    i respectfully and completely disagree... and the more people start feeling this way, the more i'll buy :)

    if you have a short term horizon, then it may not be worth the risk, but i was buying in the days after 9/11 and look where we're at now (even w/ the recent pullback).

    jmho.
     
  6. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

    Nov 1, 2003
    34,891
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    HUBBSTER
    I bought right after 9/11 also & made a nice profit. This whole year looks bad to me though. After the Spanish attack I think the Camel Humpers want to attack us in Nov & I think there will be reprisals for the current battle in Afghanistan.

    I'm selling off at a nice profit but I'll still keep some stocks especially defense & security stocks
     
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  8. UroTrash

    UroTrash Three Time F1 World Champ
    Consultant Owner

    Jan 20, 2004
    33,476
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    Internet Poseur
    I agree! If you have long time horizon stay in. The market is up more years than it down. (I won't preach about Index funds, Spiders and iShares....) No one can CONSISTANTLY time the market. I LOVE sales....
     
  9. beast

    beast F1 Veteran

    May 31, 2003
    8,965
    Lewisville, TX
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    Rob Guess
    Right now i have pulled out of my short term investments i am still in on a few long term ones. The way i look at it there will be some bargains to be had out there and it is getting to be a good time to pounce on some of them.

    Just MHO
     
  10. NY Joe 360

    NY Joe 360 Karting

    Nov 2, 2003
    197
    New York
    Full Name:
    Joe
    I buy when everyone else is selling... thanks 455% gain in 2003 =)

    Back up the truck.. Microsoft shares at multi year lows. Johnson and Johnson looking good too!
     
  11. ty (360mode)

    ty (360mode) Formula Junior

    Sep 25, 2002
    807
    Houston
    Full Name:
    Tim
    william, definitely agree w/ your points re further attacks. so if someone has a somewhat short time frame, it probably would be wise to move to cash. for me personally, i'm buying on the dips...

    BUT you can NEVER go wrong selling at a profit!
     
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  13. Teenferrarifan

    Teenferrarifan F1 Rookie

    Feb 21, 2003
    3,022
    Media, PA
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    Erik
    With the greenback as weak as it is and interest rates the way they are does it really even make sense to stash cash. Why not buy something less liquid like real estate (commercial not residential), and get a greater return. I don't think it makes sense to collect 2% on your money.
    Erik
     
  14. W00dEar

    W00dEar F1 Rookie
    BANNED

    Feb 24, 2004
    3,515
    LI, NY
    Full Name:
    Chris
    We are in downturn of an UPTREND, period.
     
  15. stokpro

    stokpro F1 Rookie
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Jun 25, 2003
    4,349
    Himalayas
    i'm with ty, loading up as you're dumping! intc!!!
     
  16. beast

    beast F1 Veteran

    May 31, 2003
    8,965
    Lewisville, TX
    Full Name:
    Rob Guess
    Great points there Eric,

    One thing though if you take a look at money market funds the best one is still below 1% APY. i myself have not had any funds in Money markets for a couple of years now as my credit union savings is at 2.5% and can be moved around with greater ease than a Money market fund.

    Rob
     
  17. ty (360mode)

    ty (360mode) Formula Junior

    Sep 25, 2002
    807
    Houston
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    Tim
    real estate can typically be a great investment (and i hope to get into soon)but i don't think going out and buying property is realistic for the "average" person. plus, you have other factors in favor of the stock market, liquidity, ease of entry, min capital to at least get in, much less research as so much is already out there on the market v. each piece of land is much more unique, etc...
     
  18. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

    Nov 1, 2003
    34,891
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    HUBBSTER
    I agree, I just think the market is very nervous & I'm cashing out some profits till January. Have to find some place where I can make some interest on this cash. Too bad CDs suckk now
     
  19. Wildwarrior

    Wildwarrior Formula Junior

    Mar 26, 2003
    280
    PA
    Full Name:
    Glen Winters
    I agree with both William and Eric
    I am in the process of purchasing another commercial property,in this case an apartment complex.For the past several years I have been investing over 90% in my self and not in the market, I see substantial immediate and longer term retirement gains.
     
  20. Klint

    Klint Karting

    Dec 7, 2003
    114
    Isle of Man, British Isles
    Full Name:
    Clint
    Back on the 10th of March I was tipped off that Oil will be worth checking out for the coming months/year. Oil seems to be surviving the downward spiral of the world economy at present. I should of jumped onto it, but I've never dealt with commodities before. ah wells....

    There's also the worry of retaliation of that recent assisination of that well known controversial leader of some middle eastern terrorist group. That's also affecting the markets...
     
  21. sherpa23

    sherpa23 F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed Owner

    May 28, 2003
    9,501
    Colorado
    Full Name:
    Bastuna

    As someone from a somewhat significant oil producing nation, I also pay attention to the price of oil. 18 months ago I thought about buying some because of the impending war, etc. When I checked the price it was $28/barrel for crude. YIKES!! I thought that it was too high and there wasn't much room for it to go up. Shows you how wrong I was.
     
  22. Teenferrarifan

    Teenferrarifan F1 Rookie

    Feb 21, 2003
    3,022
    Media, PA
    Full Name:
    Erik
    Staying on topic somewhat instead of making a new thread. What type of return should one be expected to average with the econ. the way it is. I know the days of a 500% stock return are gone. But, no way 2% or so makes any sense. I have a pretty diverse portfolio, but over the 3 years I have made 30.14%(as of today at 9:12 thanks AOL). Should I be happy with about a 10% return a year. I have only had one real winner that was MIDD that I bought at $5 that is now over $40. The others have done well, but what should one expect in the markets these days. Also, keep in mind I am not talking about $100's of thousands of dollars here.
    Erik
     
  23. rob

    rob F1 Rookie

    May 22, 2002
    3,624
    Vt
    Stocks historically have declined going into and during the summer months, then are very volitale in the Sept. Oct. period and generally go up before and during the holidays.
    It is very hard to find a decent rate of return for fixed income investments now, the highest rate I've seen for C.D.'s are in the
    4+ percent range but you have to tie up your money for up to four years. I would imagine that interest rates will go up between now and then so I'm hesitant to lock my money up for 3 or 4 years.
     
  24. Tomf-1

    Tomf-1 F1 Rookie
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 17, 2004
    4,475
    Leawood KS/ South FL
    Full Name:
    Thomas

    Yes !!!! Go long July Beans. I would caution against outright long and strongly suggest a good option strategy to protect your downside risk....Your upside potential is at least 15% to 25% over the next two months. Consider it market flight to quality...July closed around 10.5 today.
     
  25. JimSchad

    JimSchad Guest

    If anyone has spare cash you don't know what to do with you can loan it to me...seriously. I am making about 75% all cash to 200% leveraged/borrowed returns doing rehabs on cheapo homes and there are more than I can buy right now.

    I have a biz partner and I do all the work and he supplies most of the money and we split 50/50 so that means I am paying him 100% annual interest. I also use some hard money lenders and they charge 4 points and 14-18% so if you want a locked rate of 10%, 15% or 20% let me know.

    Here are a few deals I am doing.
    Paid 18K, put in 18K, sell for 67k
    Paid 29K, put in 8k sell for 58k
    paid 29k, put in 14k, sell for 65k

    Got a development deal of 5 vacant lots. Need bout 50k to buy the lots and secure construction loans. Maybe make $110K or more.

    Another higher end rehab. Pay 120k, put in 150k sell for bout 400k.

    Or park the money in an apt complex. I have a guy who will loan me the 20% down money for a 50/50 stake and I manage it. Great deal for both of us as he/you get great roi on your 20% loan and I get infinite roi as i have no money in the deal...so sweat equity I guess or management fee!

    Stock market is passive so that is good, but you have no control over it and then you just "buy, hold and pray" for a 15% roi. No thanks.
     
  26. JimSchad

    JimSchad Guest

    Basically what I want/need is a "line of credit". I need someone to dump me $250K to $500K at 12% or something and not worry about it. Then I can go do my fancy schmancy deals and make 75% to 200% roi's and pay you your 12% and we are both happy.

    Not sure what recourse you'd have other than agreement that i owe you and you could have a second lien on any props I buy. Gotta be 2nd lien if I borrow for balance of funds as lender will be in first position.
     
  27. Forza1

    Forza1 Formula Junior

    Mar 20, 2004
    486
    California
    Last I checked, loan sharks aren't too hard to find? :)



    -DC
     
  28. pizzadude

    pizzadude Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Feb 20, 2001
    1,222
    Indianapolis, IN
    If you think the market is going down why wouldn't you short it? You can make money in a down market also.
     

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