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Stock question?

Discussion in 'Other Off Topic Forum' started by F360@20, Feb 3, 2004.

  1. F360@20

    F360@20 Karting

    Nov 24, 2003
    244
    San Diego
    Does anyone know anything about Lucent? A friend of mine got in on it, and is telling mei should too. Yea/no?
     
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  3. 62 250 GTO

    62 250 GTO F1 Veteran

    Jan 9, 2004
    7,732
    Nova Scotia Canada
    Full Name:
    Neil
    I read about them daily, they seem like a solid co. with enough leadership/direction to keep a strong business. Not sure about their numbers but it has a rep of being a good company.
     
  4. rennen

    rennen Karting

    Nov 1, 2003
    139
    New York
    If LU goes through $5, the mutual funds that have low-priced securities covenants will start buying it. A lot of funds have stipulations that do not allow the purchase of stocks below $5. Once the larger institutions step in it will drive the price higher. I'm still buying it here, for myself and my clients.
     
  5. Meister

    Meister F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    Apr 27, 2001
    5,226
    Duluth, MN
    Full Name:
    The Meister
    I remeber when lucent spun off of AT&T years ago and was trading at over $100... how times have changed
     
  6. TimN88

    TimN88 F1 Veteran

    Jun 12, 2001
    5,032
    Northeast
    Full Name:
    Tim
    Hopefully he didnt get in before it went down 1000's of percent a few yrs ago! Tell him to hang on to it for a little longer. They just got a DoD contract recently. check yahoo biz for the article.
     
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  8. ty (360mode)

    ty (360mode) Formula Junior

    Sep 25, 2002
    807
    Houston
    Full Name:
    Tim
    i was a '40 act attorney for many years, we managed $300 billion, and i've never heard of such "covenants". not saying they don't exist, just interested in seeing the prospectus language. price per share has little to do with a company's "value", obviously.

    LU, along with the other telecoms (NT, JDSU, ALA, etc...) have in general posted very solid results lately, hence the runup in the sector. i think CSCO's earnings tonight will dampen the excitement for a while, but i'm going to selectively buy on the dips. these stocks are pricey though, imho...

    do your DD. good luck.
     
  9. F360@20

    F360@20 Karting

    Nov 24, 2003
    244
    San Diego
    So would this be something I should buy into know or no?
     
  10. NY Joe 360

    NY Joe 360 Karting

    Nov 2, 2003
    197
    New York
    Full Name:
    Joe
    Short Answer: No

    Long Answer: There's a reason in plummeted from it's highs, and why it was spun off in the first place -- Lucent has a tremendous amount of debt. Bankruptcy is a very real possibility. Short term speculators made triple their money in 2003, but any long term or further short term speculation is highly risky.
     
  11. ty (360mode)

    ty (360mode) Formula Junior

    Sep 25, 2002
    807
    Houston
    Full Name:
    Tim
    buying a stock is never a yes or no for everyone, depends on your goal and risk tolerance. LU's problems are things of the past - value of the stock is whether telecom recovers the way many are expecting. if you want to talk pure historical fundamentals, LU shouldn't be anywhere near it's current market cap.

    it would obviously be riskier than buying GE, but the reward could also be many times higher. i have a cost basis in LU of around $4. could it retrace back to high $2's? yep. but if there is a meaningful telecom recovery... i'm willing to risk that money for that "possibility".
     
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  13. henryr

    henryr F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 10, 2003
    17,639
    Atlanta
    Full Name:
    Juan Sánchez Villa-L
    you missed the easy money.
     
  14. F360@20

    F360@20 Karting

    Nov 24, 2003
    244
    San Diego
    I missed it already?

    Well, I am not afraid to take risks. I just need to know what the risk is and why? I am not a big stock person but I also like to learn as much as possible about new things.

    On a serious note thow- I take everyones advice in here very very serious. When the person told me about this and everthing they were all you need to get movingon it I put X amount in clients put this X amont in. And I was just all NO I have to talk to some friends first and see what they think. (friends being YOu guys) So once again thank you for asnwering it means alot.
     
  15. BigTex

    BigTex Seven Time F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed Owner

    Dec 6, 2002
    73,162
    Houston, Texas
    Full Name:
    Bubba
    It's an AT&T spinoff. Have you read of any of the wise decisions made recently that ran that company into the ground?

    I had Lucent in my portfolio and dumped it after losing huge $$$.
    Don' worry it was just ON PAPER! LOL

    I think I bailed about $7.00 a share. But as pointed out, it may STILL be overvalued at $2.00!

    Check out Avaya too. It's also an AT&T child.

    The McCaws out west sold to AT&T Wireless and bought about $14 million in old Ferraris, if that says anything.

    Go Goodyear #1 in Racing

    Disclaimer: I don't know jacksh-- about the market.
    I own Vanguard and Fidelity. S&P 500. Intermediate bonds.

    Follow those graphs for awhile untill you understand what's going on.

    In the short term, the market is a voting machine.
    In the long term, it's a weighing machine.
     
  16. henryr

    henryr F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 10, 2003
    17,639
    Atlanta
    Full Name:
    Juan Sánchez Villa-L
    on a risk return basis you "big time" missed it. the telecom turnaround story is out and you would not be buying into anything that has not been foreseen.

    time tomove onto the next name. unless of course you see a complete turnaround in an industry with shrinkage in competitors/customers/margins

    you buy companies that you think have sticking power when nobody else loves them and sell when they do.

    ex lu @ 50 cents
     
  17. BigTex

    BigTex Seven Time F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed Owner

    Dec 6, 2002
    73,162
    Houston, Texas
    Full Name:
    Bubba
    henryr is right. You watch for companies you believe in that are hammered by conditions.

    Goodyear was down below $4 last year with pension liabilities and a high debt burden, and looming union renegotiations. Struggling along around $10 right now.

    The funny thing is, it never had a high recommendation from analysts, yet you could have returned 300% from a paper sack full of cash.

    You could go to Vegas and throw dice. Don't put your whole investment $$$ blindly into just a few companies.
     

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