The 15 New Models by 2022 - What We Know

Can you give me a link？thx

 

Sorry if I appear obtuse but your reply, though full of excellent information, is long debated and well known here. It does not answer the question. What I am saying is that with now 5 models per year to buy instead of 1 or 2, that will inevitably split the customer base. There will be far fewer people who can either afford or be bothered to buy all models. So in the future there are a number of things that could happen (this is a general question to all, not just the OP);-

1. Far fewer people will buy all products and we can expect that Ferrari will have to apply new/different criteria to sell out of some of the nicer cars. What might that criteria be?

2. Or...enough people will exist who will still buy ‘everything’ because new customers from newly wealthy markets will take care of that, in which case the same allocation criteria as today will prevail, just those traditional VIP customers who continue to buy one or maybe two of Ferrari’s products per year will be further down the order in the future? What are the implications of that and will it apply in every market?

3. Much of today’s demand relies on people who wish to own certain cars because they either increase in value or cost very little to hold. This means the used market is critical to maintaining Ferrari new car demand (actually the same for all brands, just amplified with Ferrari because the MSRP is so much higher and if you get it wrong your product becomes very expensive very quickly). Can the used market absorb so many new models? If it cannot and you believe option 2 above will hold true will your answer revert to option 1 if the used market cannot keep pace with either the new pricing or the new number of models and production numbers (although planned production number increases do not seem difficult for the market to absorb in isolation)?

4. Or...Ferrari’s intention is to temporarily increase profitability by adding new model variants and ‘spec’ to what they produce ahead of adding long term profitability with SUV volume. If the used market cannot absorb all these new models, they will simply scale the number back in the future (I don’t think anyone believes they really want to force-feed the market even at the cost of poor residual experience for customers). This will happen after 2022 when PuroSangue is in full flow and new model options to increase production and profitablility and widen the customer base (a la Porsche) will present themselves.

5. Some other outcome?



Personally I think option 2 is massive risk for Ferrari if that is their strategy because traditional customers could turn off the brand if their previous buying habits no longer afford them the best cars, and if newly rich customers merely replace older customers Ferrari will be building much higher risk into its base. Option 4, where these extra models are a way of temporarily increasing profitability ahead of PuroSangue, which could lead to a much larger increase in volume is worth consideration - if Ferrari could gauge this well, most customers would buy more of these special cars for a short period and the residual would hold. Eventually the customer base gets widened by the new SUV and its inevitable smaller brother, and their spin-offs etc. But this starts to look like Porsche++ and is it really their plan? I suspect that all roads lead to option 1 where there will be different criteria in the future (at some point) and most customers will end up choosing what they like and want to use most, from a wide range of model variants, and paying a little more in depreciation for the privilege.

 

I have no doubt there will always be too many people able to buy Ferraris, what I'm not so sure of is whether there will always be enough people wanting to.
They have history and brand strength, but they still need to deliver - they cannot just claim high price tags because so many people could afford them.
Btw I've been owning Ferrari for 23 years now, but what I express is just an opinion and I don't see how my ownership experience should make it right or wrong.

 

Don't worry, I will survive
I do not need to spend crazy amounts of money to convince myself everybody should acknowledge how right I am; I know that's not a popular stance here, but 1) I am not disappointed by the 488 (although it's too common and too cheap to get any consideration) and 2) I was genuinely disappointed by the Pista, for both what it brought on the table and how it was priced (although its price seems to be one of its main appeals for people wanting to show what exclusivity they are entitled to).

 

Well, first you need to have hybrids to reduce plant food emissions (aka CO2), now this just in:

Mandatory speed limiters to be fitted to all new cars in Europe within three years

https://www.evo.co.uk/news/22326/mandatory-speed-limiters-to-be-fitted-to-all-new-cars-in-europe-within-three-years

Will this benefit older Ferrari models that are not so overwhelmed by the EU nannies requirements?

 

This was what angered me about the F10 M5 I purchased new back in 2013, it was limited at 155 and that pretty much made it suck. I haven't bought a BMW since and none of my cars have been limited at 155 since. All of them can easily exceed that and have.

Another feature I don't want to be stuck with is HELE or auto on/off. It's a damn nuisance to have to push the auto off button all the time in my 2017 RR. I think the 2018 models are the last of Ferrari not to be forced to have that feature.

The system described in the article would pretty much remove all this hype from Ferrari since the additional HP and performance features would be 100% mooted.

 

excellent

 

Bang, what a posting, what a thread.

Thanks, highly interesting!!!

Mille grazie

 

Maybe both, but I don't know for sure.

You asked...I can only guess.

 

In reply to point one, people are obsessed with depreciation and it therefore drives the market so it is relevant to everyone. The numbered and rarer cars do not always trade over MSRP, only in the last few years or when they are very very rare or very old. Mac F1, F40, F50, CGT all struggled for a good while. The world has a habit of changing the rules and at the moment they happen to be very favourable. That may not always be the case. I also wonder about the Icona Monza in the medium term and would not feel with any great confidence it will head off into the stratosphere. It starts from a very high price, it cannot be driven on the road in its largest market and it only really works for collectors who will rarely or never use it, which limits its market. Ok, so it happens to be one of the most beautiful Ferraris ever built.....

To your point two, everyone who has bought a number of cars knows this - rallies, buying history, pilota, events, loading up your spec - except for the sales manager part - it’s your DP you have to be talking to to know what’s what. Same for point three, you need to build a relationship with your dealer, do things properly, build a relationship with the factory etc. Again, common knowledge.

But....the question is how will this massive increase in new models change the system we are already familiar with? Should I take it that from your repeated advice describing the system as it works now that you don’t think it will change?

 

Not to me. I don't care, really.
I buy what I like, no matter, if price goes up or down. In 40+ years I have not even thought about that. To me it is completely irrelevant.

Marcel Massini

 

I find that in the wider Ferrari-owners world enthusiasts are less worried about depreciation than some here. Most see owning a Ferrari as just another expensive lifestyle/hobby. I know a few who own yachts that drop 10-20% a year and cost another 10% in maintenance and operating, and they don't sweat about it because that's a given

I think the Ferrari owner mentality has changed in the past few years as even normal enthusiasts have turned into investors/speculators. They try to understand the "game" of what they need to do to get that special car that is going to be instantly more valuable (speciale aperta etc) to pay for the hobby. Some who got in 5-7 years ago have done well because of the bubble in prices, but those who are playing it now need to open their eyes, especially anyone who has overreached by buying many of the new cars in the hope of securing a limited edition..

With the economies cooling, and Ferrari taking the froth for themselves by increasing new car prices, I can only think we will go back to the old "normal" where Ferrari just becomes another expensive lifestyle/hobby for those who can afford it without worrying about depreciation.

 

I find much to agree with here. I think there are two counter-points to think on though. First, if you are a serial Ferrari buyer the holding cost doesn’t stop you even if it is high because you want to own and drive a Ferrari but it is still important - even wealthy people don’t usually want to burn money unnecessarily (I.e. by market mismanagement from Ferrari in the search of shareholder profits, which would be short-termist anyway).

Second point is that many customers want to buy cars like the Pista but know they need to buy other cars first. Hardly a hardship - not many think the 488 is a poor car - but the cost of a 488, maybe an additional Portofino or a Lusso or even an 812 to add to the garage, if that suddenly becomes doubly expensive it means that paying over the odds to get a lightly used Pista becomes the preferred route for more people. That turns into a vicious circle. Therefore, IMV, depreciation is really quite relevant, even for those who are in it for the driving, in working out how best to plan your buying. Remembering that it takes up to 2 years to get cars even for VIPs placing orders at a customer preview event (my TM 812 was ordered early 2017 arriving soon) means it pays to try and think a little ahead. The other point is that it is great fun specifying your own car and for me personally, I don’t really like buying used unless it is a very special car.

 

I don't think your major concerns have been addressed or at least I have not seen it yet. Based on the 15 list proposed here, maybe only the Portofino and the GTC4 Lusso replacements will not require buying many other cars in the lineup. The question remains - how many and for which of the other cars. To answer this, the equation for allocations would have to be much more defined which we all know is not and won't be. Since Ferrari is quite good at keeping secrets concerning if/when a new model will be released, it is assumed that you need to already have bought what looks like an unreasonable amount of cars even for a production car. They all won't be knock outs despite the optimism.

With Ferrari upping the cost to capture the ROI that the used market relied on WRT numbered cars, the dynamic certainly has changed dramatically. As you state, depreciation, at least in the States, is a huge concern for buyers and with the risk increasing to the buyer that will definitely have an effect. Your observation of just buying the flipped car being an increasingly viable option is noted even given the wonderful experience of ordering to taste. With having to manage the allocation requirement guessing, ordering, storage and holding term and actually enjoying the driving of so many cars it would be logical to say that the process going further did not get easier or stay the same (per one of your prior questions).

Another question is what impact does this new pricing and release/production schedule have on your existing cars and cars on order? If all of a sudden its hybrid or bust then that 812 just cost a lot more to flip. Personally, I don't predict a market crash for existing non-hybrids. Batteries and electronics suck and on another thread we are told the LaF batteries just went off warranty. Best.

 

I was reading the earnings call transcript from January 31st and Camilleri mentions the intention of entering the GT segment. Just to get it 100% right: he's talking about the return of the "elegant GT" inspired by the 50s&60s classics, correct? Which, from what I've seen in the slides, isn't part of the "Icona" series and will sit along the Portofino and the Lusso. Any further input and/or correction is more than welcome.
Have a nice Sunday, gentlemen.

 

First - great thread. Ferrari's product future is certainly exciting. I think I can weigh-in with a candid and unique perspective. Ferrari’s business plan of model introductions and access to them is actually brilliant. That said, I was one of those heading down the rabbit hole but after going a little way down I backed out and ran. To be clear, I took my licks, but I’m still glad I didn’t delve deeper. I backed out because the price to play (balanced by my personal levels of satisfaction) was just too high. In the end, I just didn’t LOVE the cars I was obtaining for the price I would need to pay. I absolutely love the new cars but my real passion is more the older models and I own/operate in that world comfortably. Aside from my personal collection, the models that really excite me are the vintage cars and the supercars. I can’t wait to see what’s next for the Icona line, and especially the LaFerrari successor. Knowing that there’s no way I can ever own any of them, I take a lot of pleasure simply as an observer and admirer.

 

Are any of these 'full blown active hybrid cars' going to include electric motors on the front wheels? Making full use of 1,000 hp without awd is not efficient.