The Canadian Real Estate market........ | Page 2 | FerrariChat

The Canadian Real Estate market........

Discussion in 'Canada' started by Kds, Jul 20, 2008.

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  1. ClassicFerrari

    ClassicFerrari F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa

    Jan 7, 2004
    16,798
    Toronto
    Full Name:
    Vasco
    +1 Very impressive!
     
  2. starboy444

    starboy444 F1 Veteran

    Oct 7, 2006
    7,265
    Toronto, Canada
    Full Name:
    Lucas
    He's the Donald Trump of the North!

    Kokino's is right...you must sacrifice and stick with your investment, then sell when the time is right.

    Flipping houses is not the greatest profit, holding them for a few years, then attracting the right buyer can make you more money.
     
  3. MD911

    MD911 Formula Junior

    Sep 27, 2007
    331
    True, but in the frenzy of the Calgary RE market, flippers could make good quick money and flip several houses in a short period of time.
     
  4. Jay GT4

    Jay GT4 F1 Rookie

    Oct 16, 2001
    4,995
    La mamma dei fessi
    Full Name:
    e sempre incinta
    Yes, and have you been in one of those building lately? They are war zones! I won't work in them, cockroaches, bullet holes, dirty walls, filthy apartments. You can't leave equipment in the apartments, it'll be gone in a second. Even the high end rentals are falling apart. You want to raise kids in that kind of enviornment? Better to buy a simple house or condo and get a room mate. I bought a simple house. The key is to buy something YOU CAN AFFORD!. All these wanna be's buying huge houses on little down...better to have a smaller house that if hard times come you won't lose your shirt. It's called living within your means. What happens if interest rates go up? All these poser's won't be able to afford the interest let alone the principal.
     
  5. Ferrariguy2

    Ferrariguy2 F1 Rookie

    Apr 5, 2004
    3,092
    Naples, Florida
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    Chief
    + 1
    Well said Jay.
     
  6. Shemmer

    Shemmer Formula Junior

    Jul 8, 2007
    623
    Toronto
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    Rob
    Waterfront property is always more desirable. Good choice for a condo location.
     
  7. starboy444

    starboy444 F1 Veteran

    Oct 7, 2006
    7,265
    Toronto, Canada
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    Lucas
    Calgary waterfront? I thought Calgary was in the middle of the mountains.....please fill me in.
     
  8. wrs46

    wrs46 Formula 3

    May 19, 2005
    1,395
    QC, CANADA (&CH, &F)
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    Walter
    There's a small river (Bow River). Check Google Earth. Doesn't appear to be navigable though (I see no boats on it...).
     
  9. mrfissa

    mrfissa Karting

    May 27, 2005
    213
    "Buy land, they're not making it anymore”
    Mark Twain

    "Owning a home is a keystone of wealth.. both financial affluence and emotional security."
    Suze Orman

    “The only difference between a cult and a religion is the amount of real estate they own”
    Frank Zappa

    My favourite qoute is "With real estate you never pay too much. You only buy too soon." I can't remember who said this but its very true.

    In real estate the real money is made when everyone thinks the ship is sinking. In reality the ship never sinks and when things get better the guy with the most chutzpah will be grinning from ear to f****** ear.
     
  10. starboy444

    starboy444 F1 Veteran

    Oct 7, 2006
    7,265
    Toronto, Canada
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    Lucas
    The ship has sank big-time in the US!

    And no one is grinning from ear to f'n ear!
     
  11. Prancing 12

    Prancing 12 F1 Rookie
    Silver Subscribed

    May 11, 2004
    2,652
    The long way home
    Don't worry, there are plenty grinning from ear to f'n ear! The people who shouldn't have been in the house they were in the first place (over-extended) may not be happy, but there are plenty of people grinning about that ;)
     
  12. wrs46

    wrs46 Formula 3

    May 19, 2005
    1,395
    QC, CANADA (&CH, &F)
    Full Name:
    Walter
     
  13. Ferrariguy2

    Ferrariguy2 F1 Rookie

    Apr 5, 2004
    3,092
    Naples, Florida
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    Chief
    Sorry dude, but I am. Bought a place I otherwise wouldn't have been able to afford.
     
  14. starboy444

    starboy444 F1 Veteran

    Oct 7, 2006
    7,265
    Toronto, Canada
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    Lucas
    Thats great.

    I was talking about the people who lost their homes and savings on the credit collapse, they are the ones who aren't grinning.

    If you had the money in the bank, you are able to pick up properties for 1/2 price now. (Like you did).
     
  15. Prancing 12

    Prancing 12 F1 Rookie
    Silver Subscribed

    May 11, 2004
    2,652
    The long way home
    Which was the point of mrfissa's original post that you quoted... there a TONS of opportunities to make money on RE when the majority have to jump ship (right now). Of course not if you're the one being foreclosed on, but that was obvious.
     
  16. ClassicFerrari

    ClassicFerrari F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa

    Jan 7, 2004
    16,798
    Toronto
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    Vasco
    Classic case of making money when things are going down and when they are going up. This is old but very true news! Just gotta have a good eye.
     
  17. kokinos

    kokinos Karting

    Jan 20, 2005
    109
    Calgary - Merc Rider
    Full Name:
    Chris H
    Vasco and starboy thanks for the kind words, I'm very grateful it worked out for me.

    Calgary has two rivers flowing through it Bow River (Not small, during the runoff if you get caught in it with no life jacket good luck coming out alive) and Elbow (Small but great for floating). They do permit small fishing boats on certain sections but believe it's limited b/c there are a few fresh water resevoirs which need to be kept clean.

    We're not really in the rockies either, East of the city it's flat and the mountains start about 40kms west of Calgary.

    http://www.waterfrontcalgary.com/ this is the spot I just bought in, it has a nice picture on the opening page of DT Calgary and the Bow River.
     
  18. UpNorth

    UpNorth Formula 3
    Owner

    Sep 30, 2006
    1,767
    Quebec, Canada
    Full Name:
    Francois
    Local newspaper here this morning saying that property has doubled in price in the last 6 years and the market is hotter than ever...So Qc City is grinning from ear to f'n ear!
     
  19. MD911

    MD911 Formula Junior

    Sep 27, 2007
    331

    That used to be the location of my cheap parking spot....a few blocks from dt and affordable. Now the lots are charging up to $28/day. It's going to be a nice area, especially with Eau Claire being redone too.
     
  20. Kds

    Kds F1 World Champ

    #45 Kds, Aug 2, 2008
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2008
    Here is great post I borrowed from the Proud to be Canadian blog.....

    a) Housing affordability is at its worst level since the last housing bubble burst [RBC. Housing Affordability. Mar-2009, p.1]

    b) Real housing prices have increased substantially more than during the last three housing cycles dating back 40-years (all of which ended badly) [Scotiabank. Real Estate Trends, 26-Feb-2008, p.2]

    c) Real housing prices in Canada have risen more from trough to peak than in the U.S. [Scotiabank. Real Estate Trends, 26-Feb-2008, p.2]

    d) Canada’s housing prices-to-rent ratio is higher than in any other OECD country save Spain and 90% higher than the long-run trend [OECD Economic Outlook No. 82, December 2007. Data table can be found in the housing price ratio tab of ]http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/6/5/2483894.xls]

    e) Canada’s housing prices-to-income ratio is 32% above historic trends and substantially above the ratio which prevailed when the last housing boom bubble popped in the late 80’s / early 90’s [same source as (d)]. Indeed, statistics on the Toronto housing market show that prices are currently 4.18x the average household income. This is 45% higher than the ** PEAK ** of the last major housing bubble in 1989, when only 2.87x the prevailing average income was required to purchase a home in Toronto ( http://multimedia.thestar.com/acrobat/50/79/d004eda0453f8443bb506994c2ad.pdf )

    f) The unprecedented run-up in prices have been fueled by a proliferation of risky lending practices such as 0% down, 40-year amortization, 7% cash back, teaser rates, step mortgages, skip a payment, builder rate buy downs, HELOCs, weak income and valuation documentation, etc.

    g) Housing construction is far in excess of household formation. CMHC data shows housing starts averaging 226,000 units per year from 2003 through 2008, 33% per year above the roughly 170,000 net new households formed each year.

    h) MLS housing inventory is at record highs while at the same time the number of sales is dropping dramatically [CREA]

    i) Consumer indebtedness is at record highs relative to disposable income [Vanier Institute. The Current State of Canadian Family Finances. 11-Feb-2008. p.28]

    j) Savings rates are close to nil even though the baby boomers should be saving for retirement [Same source as above]

    n) The economy is bordering on a recession, that inflationary pressures are building, and that we are in the opening innings of the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression (eg. without Govt support, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would fail, defaulting on some $5 TRILLION dollars in obligations.)

    ----------------------------------------------------------

    Here's Calgary's stats Travis......

    http://www.findcalgary.ca/

    SFH July 2007 $505,920
    SFH July 2008 $456,380

    A 10% drop.....
     
  21. TravisJ

    TravisJ Formula Junior
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    Feb 9, 2008
    626
    Austin, TX
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    Travis
    #46 TravisJ, Aug 2, 2008
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2008
    Information like this, in isolation, isn't valueable or statistically relevant. Yes, from an all time high in July of 2007, average sales prices are down. However, the numbers quoted do not adjust for the high number of >$1 million homes (59) sold during that month.

    Here is a clip from a Herald article...

    "Following the peak last July, the average sale price for single-family homes dropped in the fall: $485,914 in August, $470,888 in September, $452,254 in October, $462,134 in November, and $444,769 in December. For the first half of this year average MLS prices were $455,297 in January, $471,696 in February, $475,513 in March, $474,564 in April, $479,564 in May and $473,774 in June."

    http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=4b545b9c-abc7-4e00-b7d3-929117c64edf

    In looking at these numbers, average sale prices increased by 4.8% from October to June of this year. Of course, these numbers don't give a complete picture.

    Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. ~Aaron Levenstein

    My point wasn't that you were wrong about housing values being cyclical. I was just pointing out the many misrepresentations you made.
     
  22. 355

    355 F1 Rookie
    BANNED

    Jan 4, 2005
    3,643
    Toronto
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    Frank
    If you look at what Calgary house price have done since 2001 then you can appreciate why they are coming down. It is not an indicator of what is happening or going to happen through out Canada.
     
  23. TravisJ

    TravisJ Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Feb 9, 2008
    626
    Austin, TX
    Full Name:
    Travis
    I believe current house values in Calgary are significantly overpriced. I suspect there will be a big correction over the next couple of years. However, I won't come here saying "I was right and everyone else was wrong".
     
  24. Kds

    Kds F1 World Champ

    #49 Kds, Aug 22, 2008
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2008
    But I was right and everyone else was wrong........heh........how do you think succesful stock analysts and other purveyors of information make their mark ? By keeping quiet about it ?

    Logical level headed people who stayed away from the mania have listened to the fraudulent puffery of residential real estate agents (property pimps), numerous real estate related TV shows (Flip that cardboard porta pottie.....What is my ****house worth....etc) and advertising disguised as worthless newspaper articles extolling the virtues of the housing bubble......without a mention of the downside risks. The clowns in the media that perpetrated this fraud on the public are as much to blame as the real estate agents who lied to collect their fat cheques.

    "Only losers rent........

    If you rent you are throwing your money away

    Pay yourself not someone else....heh, that is the best one IMHO, for if you run the numbers you'll soon understand what a whopper of a lie that one is.

    If you are not in the market you are a nobody.....

    Houses only go up you know.....

    If you don't buy today you'll be priced out forever......."

    Ad nauseum.

    So.....it's our turn now.......and there are going to be people who cannot stand to hear it.

    A 650 suite 2 tower high rise condo complex was cancelled today.......what you read as to why this happened is media spin.....but it does not matter.......the real estate bulls were wrong and the bears are right. Watch this thread for the updates as things progress in our market.

    http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=4eb67305-3852-464e-ba11-eede18ff4022

    http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=01558d08-5353-4360-89bf-9cf1de8f0f5b
     
  25. Prancing 12

    Prancing 12 F1 Rookie
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    May 11, 2004
    2,652
    The long way home
    The downfall of the Midtown towers was due to an incompetent developer, not the housing market. My guess is a REAL developer will buy the project and re-market it at market rates.

    This is no different than the hair dresser I referred to earlier in this thread. Just another example of someone (this time a developer) getting in over their heads thinking they can "play realestate".
     

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